EV of psychology?
#1
Posted 2012-February-19, 04:37
Board 2 of set 1 of the spingold. Opps have an auction to 4H. Dummy hits and they start yelling at each other about the meanings of bids. They had a misunderstanding about a bid. They take one finesse and it loses. They then take another finesse... You have Kx behind the AQ. Dummy has 2 small. You know this is the end of the hand, they have the rest. Do you win it or duck it. If you wanna cop out and say "it depends," on what factors does it depend?
#2
Posted 2012-February-19, 04:48
Given an abstract situation like here, I sure as hell would do it. At least for the laughs. I consider good laughs easily worth more than 1IMP
But so early in the set, I can see psychological effects also making it worthwhile.
Just hope your partner won't start asking questions or laughing out loud.
#3
Posted 2012-February-19, 05:42
#4
Posted 2012-February-19, 06:06
gnasher, on 2012-February-19, 05:42, said:
I think that the question was: Do you let them make 6 so they 'll feel bad and make more mistakes in the next boards?
..I wouldn't
#5
Posted 2012-February-19, 06:23
I think I'd only do it if I was sure my opponents were the sort of people who're affected by a bad result. The fact that they're arguing doesn't mean that they're going to fall apart.
#6
Posted 2012-February-19, 06:54
#7
Posted 2012-February-19, 09:17
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#8
Posted 2012-February-19, 11:03
True, this is the spingold, and the opponents are supposed to be mentally tough; but I think 1 IMP is a small price to pay to give them the rope. I would do this even if they haven't been arguing about the bid.
#9
Posted 2012-February-19, 13:26
If they are good enough, they will be angry the same amount even if the slam on ~75% fails. If this is the case and my teammates maybe will not be in slam, I win, potentially preserving 1 IMP.
Otherwise, I could duck it. This move should have a decent EV.
Did you duck it?
#10
Posted 2012-February-19, 14:39
Poky, on 2012-February-19, 13:26, said:
Did you duck it?
Obv this didn't actually happen to me yet, but I have to prepare myself in case it does!
#11
Posted 2012-February-19, 14:52
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#13
Posted 2012-February-19, 22:30
#14
Posted 2012-February-19, 22:40
I'm a form believer that you cannot fight the opponents and partner all at the same time.
Better, of course, if declarer has A Q J so that the finesse is repeatable. Nonetheless, mess with their heads.
(Speaking of misunderstandings, on Saturday I opened 2♠ and heard the opponents bid to 5♠; they got to play it there on a 2 - 0 trump fit, down 6, when cold for a club slam. You can bet that I'd mess with them on the next few hands if I could.)
"If you're driving [the Honda S2000] with the top up, the storm outside had better have a name."
Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.
#15
Posted 2012-February-20, 06:56
#17
Posted 2012-February-20, 09:16
karlson, on 2012-February-20, 06:56, said:
How is it 2 or 3 imps? You are throwing away some fraction of 1 imp overall (the times that your teammates stay out of slam). Let's call it .4 imps. In return you gain the swing of making them think they will probably lose 13/11 instead of probably winning 13/11. I have no idea if it's worth it and I would probably say it depends on the opps and also on the exact hand (if it is like 33 HCP and a fit, then you're probably throwing away a very small amount since your teammates will almost always be in slam, so it would def be worth it).
#19
Posted 2012-February-20, 09:20
#20
Posted 2012-February-20, 09:25
- hrothgar