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EV of psychology?

#1 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 04:37

I was gonna create an entire hand and troll for the lulz but here is a scenario:

Board 2 of set 1 of the spingold. Opps have an auction to 4H. Dummy hits and they start yelling at each other about the meanings of bids. They had a misunderstanding about a bid. They take one finesse and it loses. They then take another finesse... You have Kx behind the AQ. Dummy has 2 small. You know this is the end of the hand, they have the rest. Do you win it or duck it. If you wanna cop out and say "it depends," on what factors does it depend?
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#2 User is offline   Flameous 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 04:48

I have never thought of this situation. Maybe because usually opps only argue due being in ridiculous game or not being there.
Given an abstract situation like here, I sure as hell would do it. At least for the laughs. I consider good laughs easily worth more than 1IMP :D
But so early in the set, I can see psychological effects also making it worthwhile.

Just hope your partner won't start asking questions or laughing out loud. ;)
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#3 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 05:42

Law 74B4 forbids "prolonging play unnecessarily ... for the purpose of disconcerting an opponent". Hence I think you're obliged to win it.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#4 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 06:06

View Postgnasher, on 2012-February-19, 05:42, said:

Law 74B4 forbids "prolonging play unnecessarily ... for the purpose of disconcerting an opponent". Hence I think you're obliged to win it.

I think that the question was: Do you let them make 6 so they 'll feel bad and make more mistakes in the next boards?
..I wouldn't
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#5 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 06:23

Oh I see, sorry. I thought it was "Do you duck so as to give them more time to argue while declarer's crossing back to dummy to take the finesse again?", but I've just reread the question.

I think I'd only do it if I was sure my opponents were the sort of people who're affected by a bad result. The fact that they're arguing doesn't mean that they're going to fall apart.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#6 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 06:54

Duck it. Almost nobody plays their best game knowing they just blew 11 imps on misunderstanding, surely not the people who are arguing about it.
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#7 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 09:17

Yes I duck. If I expect my teammates to bid the slam it doesn't even cost since 450+50 and 480+50 and 650/680 is the same 11/13 IMPs. If they don't bid the slam I've obviously tossed one IMP away. Hopefully partner is aware of this tactic and keeps a straight face because I don't want him to start the inquisition about, "hey who has that King??" And if he finds out I have it then not only do the opps get a psychological boost for missing a good slam that fails, but also because I am outed for semi-dumping.
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#8 User is offline   r_prah 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 11:03

I would duck. If I had to risk conceding an overtrick to give declarer a chance to go down, I would do so; I see this as an analogous situation, albeit with an intangible gain. If they believe they are 13 IMPs down, they will think that momentum (thus far) is against them. And yes, they will likely continue to argue, which cannot be bad for us.

True, this is the spingold, and the opponents are supposed to be mentally tough; but I think 1 IMP is a small price to pay to give them the rope. I would do this even if they haven't been arguing about the bid.
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#9 User is offline   Poky 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 13:26

It depends.

If they are good enough, they will be angry the same amount even if the slam on ~75% fails. If this is the case and my teammates maybe will not be in slam, I win, potentially preserving 1 IMP.

Otherwise, I could duck it. This move should have a decent EV.

Did you duck it? B-)
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#10 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 14:39

View PostPoky, on 2012-February-19, 13:26, said:



Did you duck it? B-)


Obv this didn't actually happen to me yet, but I have to prepare myself in case it does!
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#11 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 14:52

What does EV stand for ?
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#12 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 15:12

Expected Value
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#13 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 22:30

I'm not playing psychological games, I'm playing bridge. I'm taking my trick. Mostly because it wouldn't occur to me to duck.
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#14 User is offline   S2000magic 

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Posted 2012-February-19, 22:40

I'd probably duck.

I'm a form believer that you cannot fight the opponents and partner all at the same time.

Better, of course, if declarer has A Q J so that the finesse is repeatable. Nonetheless, mess with their heads.

(Speaking of misunderstandings, on Saturday I opened 2 and heard the opponents bid to 5; they got to play it there on a 2 - 0 trump fit, down 6, when cold for a club slam. You can bet that I'd mess with them on the next few hands if I could.)
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#15 User is offline   karlson 

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Posted 2012-February-20, 06:56

My experience is that partners that start yelling at each other continue to do so regardless of whether the table result ends up being good for them, so I'm not just going to throw away 2 or 3 imps the times teammates also stay out of slam.
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#16 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2012-February-20, 07:34

I don't quite see the point of this, so I wouldn't duck.
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#17 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-February-20, 09:16

View Postkarlson, on 2012-February-20, 06:56, said:

My experience is that partners that start yelling at each other continue to do so regardless of whether the table result ends up being good for them, so I'm not just going to throw away 2 or 3 imps the times teammates also stay out of slam.


How is it 2 or 3 imps? You are throwing away some fraction of 1 imp overall (the times that your teammates stay out of slam). Let's call it .4 imps. In return you gain the swing of making them think they will probably lose 13/11 instead of probably winning 13/11. I have no idea if it's worth it and I would probably say it depends on the opps and also on the exact hand (if it is like 33 HCP and a fit, then you're probably throwing away a very small amount since your teammates will almost always be in slam, so it would def be worth it).
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#18 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-February-20, 09:18

This kind of play would rip my father appart
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#19 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-February-20, 09:20

This is just the kind of thing I think about when I'm drunk for no reason, it is probably purely academic since it's so specific heh, I just get bored imo.
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#20 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-February-20, 09:25

I would take it, I think that my partner would not understand if I duck and would ask about it. Then the opponents would realize what had happened, they would not only have avoided a doomed slam by sheer luck but they also made an extra trick by a stupidity of the opponents. I think their moods would improve while the moods of my partner and me would go down fast.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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