lead problem
#1
Posted 2012-February-15, 06:32
p - p - 2♠ - p
p - 3♦ - p - 3♥
p - 4♥ - X - ppp
you hold
xx
aqxx
xxx
kxxx
partner rarely doubles normal contracts
your ideas?
#2
Posted 2012-February-15, 06:45
Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
#3
Posted 2012-February-15, 06:48
George Carlin
#4
Posted 2012-February-15, 07:20
- hrothgar
#5
Posted 2012-February-15, 07:25
I will lead one, I have no reason to overrule him.
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#6
Posted 2012-February-15, 07:48
Yu
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
#7
Posted 2012-February-15, 07:57
-gwnn
#8
Posted 2012-February-15, 08:15
Yu18772, on 2012-February-15, 07:48, said:
Yu
Declarer is not a passed hand
yea he is limited. but not a passed hand.
George Carlin
#10
Posted 2012-February-15, 08:29
Anyway, I lead a diamond.
#11
Posted 2012-February-15, 08:48
gwnn, on 2012-February-15, 08:15, said:
yea he is limited. but not a passed hand.
Hmm...true but he is pretty limited. The hearts are also likely 4441 (otherwise he might bid 3♥ directly?), so I dont think that partner is void of any suit.
Still I control the trump suit, so don't think that any defensive tricks except spades might go away even if declare holds AKQ♠.
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
#12
Posted 2012-February-15, 09:19
The double must be a Lightner double. Partner cannot know that I have as much as I do, so he took a shot that a diamond lead would be needed to have a chance to beat 4♥. For all that partner knows, my RHO could have a strong hand with a penalty double of 2♠. This doesn't appear to be the case, but if the double is not Lightner, it is highly speculative, as he cannot count on me for anything significant. In any event, he should be able to stand a diamond lead.
As for the choice of diamond, I probably want a club returned, so I lead my lowest diamond.
#13
Posted 2012-February-15, 10:12
Yu18772, on 2012-February-15, 08:48, said:
Still I control the trump suit, so don't think that any defensive tricks except spades might go away even if declare holds AKQ♠.
you expect the declarer to run out of 3 dia to 3hearts on 4 cards and the balancer to bid like this with 4 harts and lonnger dias? I would overthink this...
#14
Posted 2012-February-15, 10:24
"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other. -- Hamman, re: Wolff
#15
Posted 2012-February-15, 11:19
Tomi2, on 2012-February-15, 10:12, said:
I dont think declarer is running anywhere, I think he has a pretty good hand that had nothing to bid over 2♠, otherwise he really should pass 3♦. If you usually try to "save" partner from his suit without values - I would rethink that....
Declarer can withstand 4♦ from partner (in case 3♥ gets doubled for example). If declarer had a good hand and 5 card ♥ I would expect him to bid 3♥ the previous round, so it seems like he has something like 3:4:2:4 with about 12-15, and the balancer probably has only 2 clubs or the hearts are really bad so he decided to bid his good and long suit rather than double.
Yu
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
#16
Posted 2012-February-15, 11:47
Yu18772, on 2012-February-15, 11:19, said:
Declarer can withstand 4♦ from partner (in case 3♥ gets doubled for example). If declarer had a good hand and 5 card ♥ I would expect him to bid 3♥ the previous round, so it seems like he has something like 3:4:2:4 with about 12-15, and the balancer probably has only 2 clubs or the hearts are really bad so he decided to bid his good and long suit rather than double.
Yu
I think your style is not playable... how can reopener know if partner wants to force to game and has 4 hearts but points or real hearts but not enough poits? 4-2 fits dont play well...
balancer could have reopened either with a double and correct partners 3 clubs to 3 diamonds or bid 2nt also correcting... since he IS a passed hand and truly limited - both actions can't be strong!
Declarer had 5 or more hearts and a hand that is too weak to act directly over 2 spades facing a passed hand, balancer has found some maximum to raise partners encouraging but not forcing natural 3 heart bid here
#17
Posted 2012-February-15, 12:44
Tomi2, on 2012-February-15, 11:47, said:
balancer could have reopened either with a double and correct partners 3 clubs to 3 diamonds or bid 2nt also correcting... since he IS a passed hand and truly limited - both actions can't be strong!
Declarer had 5 or more hearts and a hand that is too weak to act directly over 2 spades facing a passed hand, balancer has found some maximum to raise partners encouraging but not forcing natural 3 heart bid here
So you think that a hand that was not strong enough to act over 2♠ given a 5-6 card suit, is good enough to effectively force a balancing passed hand to a 4 level vulnerable (just in case balancer actually has diamonds and single ♥ for example) ?
This seems to me much less playable.....it is like opening insufficient hands in 4th seat or preempting over a preempt....my favorite style of opponents bidding.
Yu
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
#18
Posted 2012-February-15, 16:50
Yu18772, on 2012-February-15, 12:44, said:
This seems to me much less playable.....it is like opening insufficient hands in 4th seat or preempting over a preempt....my favorite style of opponents bidding.
Yu
do you overcall every 12/13 hcp with 5 hearts over 2 spades on 3rd level vulnerable?
I think passing and then bidding 3 hearts leaves partner more space to pass 3 hearts than bidding directly, where he will rise you with most 8 counts.
auctually he had aqx - j98xxx - qx - qj
this does not look like a 3 heart bid directly but worth a try in the 2nd round once he knows partner has close to an opening
I think if he overcalled this directly he would have been in many bad games while passing and then 3 hearts makes partner pass on a non fitting hand and raise with some heart fit - that is what he needs...
so I disagree to your statement, that my way and my oponents way to bid 3 hearts effectively forces you to games - its the other way round...
to solve this problems: one need to cash the club tricks, opener has kjtxxx - / - xxx - Atxx and had some fear that a passive defense will let the contract make
dummy had xx - ktx - akjxx - xxx
on a dia or spade lead one club goes on the 3rd dia and the other on the 4th
only one guy I asked solved this problem, his idea was: lead the ace of hearts(!!) and watch the dummy, I liked this idea and try to find out, if its possible to find this lead - it seems very hard
#19
Posted 2012-February-15, 17:02
We have 3 tricks. If partner has diamond trick nothing will save declarer. If he hasn't we better cash ours before they go away on diamonds.
Now we need to decide which ace to lead. Is it possible that partner's KQs tricks disappear on clubs if we lead A[clubs} ? It could be so, so A♥ looks better.
Btw, some good card sense from partner doubling it. I am impressed.
#20
Posted 2012-February-16, 00:58
Yes 3♥ bidder is not coming from pass and probably has apprx an opener, but it is obvious they are playing a borderline game and pd probably knows this plus wants us not to lead ♠, but if pd is not a maniac the lead shdnt matter imo.
Pd has short ♥ and short ♦ too ? If he has ♦ honours, where are they going ? I'd probably lead ♠ or ♣
EDIT: I also like Bluecalm's ♥ A idea. As a matter of fact probably the best lead. We may lose tempo for this lead but better than shooting in the dark.
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."