BunnyGo, on 2012-February-12, 09:57, said:
It depends on my opponents, and becomes a game of bluff against really good opponents. Here's what happened to me at the Toronto nationals that taught me this lesson:
I played a very similar hand, and was very pleased to endplay the opponents for a "percentage" play. Needless to say it didn't work. When I asked someone later for advice he said, "Anyone good would see that coming, and not let themselves be endplayed."
So in your situation, good opponents would arrange for the person on lead at the end to not be endplayed. That said, if they think you'll figure this out, maybe they should let themselves be endplayed as a double-bluff...too deep for me. Against good opponents, I'd play for the drop here.
When you have the ten, they cannot escape the endplay when its Kd on your left and J diamonds on your right. Although, in this case, they can keep a spade. In this case, if LHO has KJ of diamonds, why so keen to get rid of the spade J? That could have been a disaster if South had ATxx. I realise this is meant to be impossible but been done by club players so many times when the 2N response has a 4cM.
Might have had a JTx or Jx decision, when diamond discards no cost. OTOH, provided you have kept the spade ace, its no cost to play a heart now, if lho has QT87 origninally they have carelessly allowed themselves to be endplayed. Even quite good players sometimes make mistakes, and stiff honor unlikely enough and error subtle enough that I would play for it against non WC players. If ops extremely good, st the mistake unlikely, you should probably play rho stiff K, feels marginally more likely from LHO's discards that he is holding on to Jxx than Kxx. Easier to come down to Kx, although again, that is an error that a top defender would not make probably, as he will know your shape as soon as you play clubs. Besides, I can always decide what do do with the diamond suit later if rho wins and plays a spade back I am no worse off.
So after all that analysis that tells me roughly nothing, I would not rise with the ace. Unless the opps are very good, when I would. I mean if you had the heart 9 would you really rise with the J at trick one? So lho has a no cost play to put his partner on lead. Thus I would inefr that rho close to 100% to have a stiff honour, but not sure which one :S will play low, picks up stiff J and defensive error, rising picks up stiff K only.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper
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