Posted 2012-February-11, 01:39
This is a pretty good hand. 8 HCP but 3 tens, trump support, a doubleton heart and a 4-card weak diamond side suit. Nice. Partner's going to like our 3 non-♦ tens quite a bit.
If your partner has a decent hand he should hopefully know to reopen with a double or bid 3♥ (or rebid 3♠) next, playing you for about 6-10 points with no clear action over 3♦. (With more than that, you would bid at the 4 level over his reopening double.) He, like you, knows your side almost certainly has half the deck or more. I would pass and trust that if 3♦ is passed out, you didn't miss a making 3♠. Maybe he has something like AQ9xx♠ Jxx♥ xx♦ Axx♣. But I think this is pretty unlikely.
Why? Partner should have 2 diamonds at most and likely only 1; if he cannot reopen, you probably missed nothing, and he almost certainly opened on a bad 11 or 12 and no longer likes the hand.
Jdeegan makes a good point: partner should not be light on these colors, and the auction confirms this. LHO and RHO have sub-openers, so partner will have 12+ points at least 90% of the time in my estimation, and may have a 20-count.
To me that all makes this pass maximum or even slightly super-max. In other words, pass only with a partner you trust to reopen whenever even remotely reasonable.
By the way... if partner reopens with a double, I'm as tempted to go 4♠ as 3♠ in response.
If you are NOT 100% sure your partner would reopen whenever possible, I would bid 3♠. Your red suit distributions will line up well for crossruffing (you rate to have some heats to ruff in partner's hand, and both red suits will be ruff-right), and you have nothing wasted in diamonds. You would adore another small trump, but sometimes life isn't like that. Partner will probably bid game most of the time there is a play for it.
If you respond 3♠, or partner doubles and you respond 3♠, and then partner goes game over your 3♠ bid, expect to make it nearly always.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!