[SimonFa]

Ok, I appreciate that safety play and MP aren't something that generally go together, but this recent hand struck me as crying out for a safety play.

All red and you find yourself in 6♠ after a tortuous bidding sequence that could be a thread on its own.

♠ Q7653
♥ A54
♦ 4
♣ AJT5


♠ AKT82
♥ QT92
♦ AJT3
♣ Void

Lead ♣K.

You have no reason to believe that the lead isn't honest and therefore shows the Q, what's your strategy?

My thought process:

Spoiler

At the table I reckoned that not too many tables would be in slam so making was more important than seeking an over trick and going down. Indeed at the table I couldn't even see a way of making an over trick so only concentrated on making.

Trumps had too many holes to set up a cross ruff without the danger of an over ruff.

So the best play I could see was pitch 2♥ on the opening lead, draw trump ending in dummy and play J♣ pitching 9♥. It doesn't matter what LHO does now as we are home.


This play scored 75%, nobody made 7.

Did I miss anything?

As always, thanks in advance,

Simon

[HighLow21]

One doesn't always shun safety plays at MP. If you get to a good contract for which making exactly will ensure a good score, and you have a risk of going down without the safety play, then take the safety play. It's only when you feel that everybody else will make the contract and that the only way to get a HIGH score is to be to go for an overtrick, that safety plays may go by the wayside.

Here, there might be a pair or two that don't find the good slam, and there should be quite a few pairs who don't get a lead that makes the slam basically certain. In those cases, ensure the contract whenever you can.

Here, the main risk is actually that spades are 3-0. If they are not, the contract is certain: ruff the opening lead and play a spade honor from hand. If both opponents follow, lead a trump to dummy's Q♠, cash A♣ pitching a heart, and lead J♣ letting it ride (again pitching a heart) except in the very unlikely case that East covers. The 10♣ enables another heart loser to disappear, and you can ruff 2 more hearts in hand.

If spades are 3-0, then there is more risk of going down. You should still play the same way but need to leave a trump outstanding while you do your rounded suit work. You may end up needing to switch lines and ruff 3 diamonds in dummy if the 3 spades are on your left.

[BunnyGo]

Seems like a very sound reasoning to me. I might ruff trick 1 in hand, but that's just a personal preference.

[ArtK78]

Play was fine (as Bunny suggested, ducking in dummy is the ABSOLUTE safety play - guards against RHO being void and ruffing out your ace).

The chances of making an overtrick are small, and the chances of going down quite real. Having a 100% line available is a great comfort.

[ArtK78]

Duplicate post.

[mgoetze]

I don't quite get it. We are talking about a line for 12 tricks. This can only be considered a "safety play" if there is a line for 13 tricks available. Could someone just spell out for me what that line for 13 tricks is... a round-suit squeeze against LHO perhaps?

[SimonFa]

 mgoetze, on 2012-February-13, 03:06, said:

I don't quite get it. We are talking about a line for 12 tricks. This can only be considered a "safety play" if there is a line for 13 tricks available. Could someone just spell out for me what that line for 13 tricks is... a round-suit squeeze against LHO perhaps?

Of course it not a safety play, don't know what I was thinking about!

As to the best line thinking about it further if ruffing the first trick, drawing trumps and then playong A♣ does set up 13 tricks if ♣KQ doubleton, but I make that a bit less than 3% if I understand the theory correctly.

[phil_20686]

You have to be a bit careful if spades 30, as south might run out of trumps to ruff both hearts aswell as a club. For this reason it is better to win the first club with the ace, then if spades 0-3 and rho has three clubs he never gets a chance to ruff a club winner. I would start ace of clubs A spades. If east has three trumps you can now try ace of diamonds ruff J clubs pitch heart.

[HighLow21]

 mgoetze, on 2012-February-13, 03:06, said:

I don't quite get it. We are talking about a line for 12 tricks. This can only be considered a "safety play" if there is a line for 13 tricks available. Could someone just spell out for me what that line for 13 tricks is... a round-suit squeeze against LHO perhaps?

I see what you're getting at Michael; it's not really a safety play in the classic sense (i.e. sacrificing a possible trick to ensure the contract.) It's more like choosing one line for 12 tricks over a different one. In this case, it's playing clubs as described as opposed to guessing wrong twice on the missing heart honors.

[HighLow21]

 SimonFa, on 2012-February-13, 04:09, said:

Of course it not a safety play, don't know what I was thinking about!

As to the best line thinking about it further if ruffing the first trick, drawing trumps and then playong A♣ does set up 13 tricks if ♣KQ doubleton, but I make that a bit less than 3% if I understand the theory correctly.

But still, 3% or whatever it is, is higher than 0%. And in the extremely unlikely case that the A♣ does get ruffed, you've just created a real problem.

[mgoetze]

 HighLow21, on 2012-February-13, 16:52, said:

It's more like choosing one line for 12 tricks over a different one. In this case, it's playing clubs as described as opposed to guessing wrong twice on the missing heart honors.

I believe this is commonly called a "percentage play", not a "safety play". Some might even go so far as to just call it "correct" or "best".

[HighLow21]

 mgoetze, on 2012-February-13, 19:03, said:

I believe this is commonly called a "percentage play", not a "safety play". Some might even go so far as to just call it "correct" or "best".

Indeed. :-)