[mgoetze]

I'm posting this hand for the benefit of beginner to lower intermediate players, because I thought it was pretty straightforward and yet I got an undivided top in a field of 40 tables. There is no squeeze, endplay or similar fancy stuff involved.

This is matchpoints, overtricks do count.

Advanced+ players, please hide your comments with a spoiler tag.

---

You can see the first two tricks by clicking "next".

What is your general plan at this point?

[MrAce]

Is this a rusinow lead or std leads ?

[Phil]

MrAce, on 2012-February-02, 13:52, said:

Is this a rusinow lead or std leads ?

No, its a robodoop so you are up against three bots. Their leads are standard.

[billw55]

Spoiler

Not sure how robots behave, but here are my thoughts against people:

West's failure to lead a spade suggests that he holds the ace, perhaps ♠Axx. He apparently also lacks the ♣Q. I guess east must hold all the other high cards including the ♦Q. So I seem to be losing a spade, a diamond, and whatever trump losers there are. I'll try three rounds of trump ending in dummy, club finesse, cash club, spade up. Perhaps the ♣9 is good now to pitch a diamond.

Do I get a top?

edit: oops, forgot to look at trick 2. Now I have an alternative, to lead trump to the 8. hmmm ..

[Antrax]

I know where most of the honors are: we have 27 HCP between us and E should have ~11 HCP for his vulnerable overcall. So W has at most one more J. That means I have no club losers, and once I get a count on the hand, probably no diamond loser either.
I think my next move is heart from hand and finesse the 8. If it doesn't hold, E can cash his spade A and I finish drawing trump and play diamonds for no losers by either leading the J from dummy or by cashing AK, depends on how many clubs and hearts E started with.
When it probably does hold, cash ♥K, finesse club T, finish drawing trump, try to drop the ♣Q to get a discard on the ♣9, and then handle diamonds.

[Flameous]

West lead a club instead of spade. He can't have the ace so only reason is a club singleton.
So west has something like xxxx Txxx ?xxx J and E holds AQJxx J ?x Qxxxx, the red suits could be other way around but I think odds are against it due restricted choice implications. (Note that this isn't a restricted choice situation per se as E could play J from JTx, it becomes one after deducting he doesn't hold 3♥s)
So I'll start finessing hearts. It's good to note that it costs a lot this time if E holds JT doubleton. Such is bridge.
If E does the mistake of discarding a club on hearts, I can eventually throw him in with the 4th club to get a spade trick. I'm not sure how to play diamonds.

[Antrax]

These are bots, no? Bots don't lead partner's suit if memory serves.

[HighLow21]

Spoiler

OK, let me see. RHO has 5♠ including probably the Ace. Yet LHO didn't lead one. Doubleton honor leads are usually bad unless partner bid that suit, so I'm going to play LHO for a weak hand short in clubs--most likely with a singleton J♣. The idea would be to ruff a club and get partner back in with a spade to get another club ruff. Using restricted choice, RHO is more likely to have J♥ alone than JT♥. He has at least 9 (quite likely 10 or even more) black suit cards, so I'm even more inclined to place him with J♥ alone. Finesse the 8♥, K♥, A♦, Q♥. Now play low to the J♦. If this fails, RHO cannot lead a spade without setting up K♠. so he leads a diamond if he has one (unlikely) or gives you a finesse in clubs. You should take at least 11 tricks if the ♥ read is right, possibly 12.

Note that at rubber bridge I'd be more inclined to cash hearts. If they prove to be 4-1, I leave a master trump out and play diamonds as described earlier. Makes if hearts 3-2 or diamond finesse works or diamonds 3-3 (not likely) or spade ace was onside the whole time (also not likely), with some other chances, like a misdefence or a 4-card spade suit with RHO or an unusual LHO lead at trick 1.

[HighLow21]

Spoiler

I also tend to think RHO is fairly likely to not have Q♦, maybe 60% of the time. This is because his overcall, while vulnerable, was certainly made with 2 long black suits after his opponents found a fit in RHO's short major and North has shown weakness. For example, would you bid 2♠ in direct seat holding AQJTx♠ J♥ xx♦ Q8xxx♣? I sure would.

[MrAce]

mgoetze, on 2012-February-02, 12:24, said:

I'm posting this hand for the benefit of beginner to lower intermediate players, because I thought it was pretty straightforward and yet I got an undivided top in a field of 40 tables. There is no squeeze, endplay or similar fancy stuff involved.

This is matchpoints, overtricks do count.

The top score u had was probably due to you being allowed to play 4♥ rather than the play. I can easily see in 4♠ we would be scoring 1♥+1♣+2♦ if RHO is 5125 and 1♥+1♦+ 2♣ if 6115. They may even make with 6115 if u start with ♣A or K.

[mgoetze]

MrAce, on 2012-February-03, 04:18, said:

The top score u had was probably due to you being allowed to play 4♥ rather than the play.

This is very wrong, and I don't think your attitude here is necessary at all. You think I would post a hand with a Rusinow lead in B/I without saying anything? You think I'm too stupid to check the other table results and see what happened? Well all I can say is: get a life.

[mgoetze]

---

I've added the next two tricks. Several people already correctly analysed that we should finesse in hearts. First of all there is the restricted choice argument which basically says: if the ♥J could have been from an original holding of ♥J or ♥JT, then it's more likely to be from the former as from the latter East would sometimes play the Ten. More importantly, on this hand we know (from the bidding) that East has 5+ spades and (from the lead) that East has 4+ clubs. It stands to reason that West is much more likely to have long hearts than without this additional information.

I would like to point out here that finessing would not be the correct play at IMPs. We can make the contract without the finesse, and there is a risk, if East started with ♥JT, that we would lose a heart, a club ruff and two spades if the finesse fails. The probability for this layout is low, but the cost at IMPs is enormous. At Matchpoints, however, we have to play for the more likely layout to maximize our overtricks.

Anyway, several tables played the first four tricks just as I did and went wrong now. What is your next play? B/I only, please!

[r_prah]

Quote

First of all there is the restricted choice argument which basically says: if the ♥J could have been from an original holding of ♥J or ♥JT, then it's more likely to be from the former as from the latter East would sometimes play the Ten.

This may be beyond the scope of this discussion, but one clarification: Restricted choice does not apply here, since East could be falsecarding with J10x. Richard Pavlicek talks about this exact situation in #7 in this article: http://www.rpbridge.net/4b73.htm

Against an inexperienced opponent, who is not capable of falsecarding with an honor from J10x (or against GIB, not sure if this falsecard is available in its repertoire), yes, the Jack is more likely from singleton Jack rather than JT.

[HighLow21]

Not going to bother to computer the exact stats here, but East is unbelievably unlikely to hold J10x♥. My intuition tells me it's a 5%, or lower, case. Thus J10 and J are far more likely and the concept behind "restricted choice"/"Bayes Theorem" applies. The example Pavlicek wrote up assumes that no other information is known about the hand.

Besides, if East does indeed hold J10x, the contract is cold on the ♥ finesse. No ♣ ruff will be available, and East cannot have a Q♦ unless it is tight, so declarer makes by finessing the ♣, and cashing A♦.

[mgoetze]

r_prah, on 2012-February-03, 09:20, said:

This may be beyond the scope of this discussion, but one clarification: Restricted choice does not apply here, since East could be falsecarding with J10x. Richard Pavlicek talks about this exact situation in #7 in this article: http://www.rpbridge.net/4b73.htm

To be pedantic, restricted choice always applies, it just doesn't always lead to the conclusion one might assume.

The point is that we consider it very unlikely that East has 3+ hearts. To stick with Mr. Pavlicek, we'll use his caluclator at http://www.rpbridge....cgi-bin/xsb2.pl and give East 4 spaces (13 minus 5 spades and 4 clubs he is known to hold) and West 12 spaces (13 minus the ♣J). We find

Split Specific Total
5-0   18.13%   18.13%
4-1    9.07%   45.60%
3-2    3.02%   30.22%
2-3    0.60%    6.04%
1-4    0.05%    0.27%

Let's assume East will always falsecard from JTx. The relevant holdings are

East Probability
J    9.07%
JT   3.02%
JT6  0.60%
JT3  0.60%
JT2  0.60%

So even without applying restricted choice, the singleton Jack is a 9.07:4.82 favourite (65.3%). Applying restricted choice increases this to 9.07:2.41 or 79%.

[HighLow21]

Thank you for calculating the stats for me. :-) I admit, 6% is higher than I expected, but it's still only 1% higher than my intuitive estimate.

[mgoetze]

HighLow21, on 2012-February-03, 10:21, said:

Thank you for calculating the stats for me. :-) I admit, 6% is higher than I expected, but it's still only 1% higher than my intuitive estimate.

Think you misread - the probability of JTx is 1.8%.

[MrAce]

mgoetze, on 2012-February-03, 08:10, said:

This is very wrong, and I don't think your attitude here is necessary at all. You think I would post a hand with a Rusinow lead in B/I without saying anything? You think I'm too stupid to check the other table results and see what happened? Well all I can say is: get a life.

Sorry, i didnt mean any of the things you thought i did but i can see how it sounded this way. I was sincerely asking the question about the lead and on the last comment i was "thinking loud". Had i known you would take it this way, i would not have done it.

[HighLow21]

mgoetze, on 2012-February-03, 10:22, said:

Think you misread - the probability of JTx is 1.8%.

You are right I did -- 2-3 is 6% of all trump splits, but JTx is only 3/10ths of those. Thanks for the clarification.

[Antrax]

mgoetze, on 2012-February-03, 08:24, said:

Anyway, several tables played the first four tricks just as I did and went wrong now. What is your next play? B/I only, please!

Finesse ♣T, finish drawing trump, cash ♣K. If the Q dropped pitch a diamond on the ♣9, when it doesn't lead a diamond to A and ♦J to K, hoping against odds that maybe W has ♦T doubleton.