[MickyB]

---

[quiddity]

club

[bluecalm]

Club looks both standard and best imo.

[Phil]

Club. I can see reasonable arguments for the newspaper lead of the K or the 6.

[nigel_k]

Club for me too. If declarer does have AQ of clubs, quite often there will be cards in dummy that would have provided discards. Sometimes declarer will have a side suit of AQJxx of clubs and a doubleton in dummy but that's life.

[lamford]

nigel_k, on 2012-January-24, 18:45, said:

Club for me too. If declarer does have AQ of clubs, quite often there will be cards in dummy that would have provided discards. Sometimes declarer will have a side suit of AQJxx of clubs and a doubleton in dummy but that's life.

I know the hand. I would reason that the declarer is more likely than normal to have a void, with the absence of Blackwood. I would not lead a club, and probably would choose a trump. Even if partner has Qx of trumps that will not cost, and I expect declarer to have six. The club may cost when dummy has the queen and declarer the ace.

[gnasher]

I don't know the hand, but I'd lead a trump almost without looking at my cards.

On this sort of auction declarer is always two-suited, and his second suit is rarely completely solid. There's no reason to believe that dummy will provide discards, so no need to make an aggressive lead.

[Hanoi5]

My first thoughts were to lead a trump. Isn't a club too aggressive?

[whereagles]

gnasher, on 2012-January-25, 03:45, said:

On this sort of auction declarer is always two-suited, and his second suit is rarely completely solid.

Two-suited yes, and usually with a void (here probably hearts). That makes the club lead very dangerous. It's either trump or hearts and I think hearts is safer.

[bluecalm]

Quote

, but I'd lead a trump almost without looking at my cards.

Hmm I think leading trumps with two of them would be very bad as declarer with his 2 suited hand will often discard dummy's clubs and take a ruff. With 3 spades this scenario is not too likely so trumps has more merits imo still I believe in K♣ but I am not that sure anymore.

[mikeh]

I'd lead a club.

While I agree with Andy that I expect declarer to hold a 2-suiter, my limited experience with these auctions is that declarer often has a play for 12 tricks if given a tempo....that surrendering a tempo is more likely to let the contract through than is an aggressive lead. And there can, on these auctions, be no less tempo-losing lead than a trump. A trump says, in essence, that we don't think declarer can make 12 tricks if left to his own devices. His bidding suggests he can. Against a known lunatic, I can see the trump lead. Against someone known or assumed to be a non-lunatic, I think a trump is almost as bad as a diamond....ok, nothing is as bad as a diamond

A club is dangerous for obvious reasons, but is also quite likely to be the winning lead for equally obvious reasons. In fact, we have to be quite unlucky to find that the club loses the contract while a spade beats it.

My concern is that if declarer's second suit (and I agree that he probably has a second suit) is diamonds, then he may be pitching a club loser on dummy's hearts.

Constructing hands is a sucker's proposition, if the idea is to try to describe the actual hand. I don't for a moment suggest that declarer 'probably' has anything like AKJxxx void AKJxx xx opposite Qxx Axxx Qx xxxx, but that is generally the type of layout that concerns me.

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2012-January-25, 11:14, said:

my limited experience with these auctions is that declarer often has a play for 12 tricks if given a tempo

My limited experience with these auctions is that declarer often has a play for 12 tricks if given a trick on the lead. I would be more inclined to lead a trump (my original choice) having read gnasher's post.

[Fluffy]

I'm impressed by the experience people have on this sequence, I am pretty sure I have never seen it before perpetrated by my opponents, and I think I didn't do it either because I always try to explore for grand.

[JLOGIC]

I am 100 % with andy. On top of that RHO might have a side suit of clubs and we are leading into his suit.

[FrancesHinden]

We have basically the same sequence on this hand and got a trump lead.

My experience of this sequence (or 1S-3S-6S which is more common) is that it is often off an AK in a side suit. In which case a club is right. The alternative construction is that suggested by the trump leaders, which is probably about equally likely.

[mikeh]

MickyB, on 2012-January-24, 17:41, said:

---

While I think we all know that the actual hand is of little assistance in answering the question of which card to lead, based on general principles, I still want to know what the hand was

Btw, I don't think that simulations help here....unless someone anyone knows how to specify the constraints for the 6♠ bid, which I surely don't....I think I may have seen this auction maybe two or three times in my life, but don't remember the details, even tho I am fairly confident that I did it myself once.

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2012-January-27, 13:57, said:

While I think we all know that the actual hand is of little assistance in answering the question of which card to lead, based on general principles, I still want to know what the hand was

Btw, I don't think that simulations help here....unless someone anyone knows how to specify the constraints for the 6♠ bid, which I surely don't....I think I may have seen this auction maybe two or three times in my life, but don't remember the details, even tho I am fairly confident that I did it myself once.

I think it was AKJxxx none AK10x Axx opposite Qxx KQxx J9x xxx. A heart lead is fatal; a trump and a club are fine. A diamond is messy but declarer can get home.

[mikeh]

So it's a draw

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2012-January-27, 15:24, said:

So it's a draw

Indeed, but I bet the trump would come out ahead over a supereon.

[mikeh]

lamford, on 2012-January-27, 17:14, said:

Indeed, but I bet the trump would come out ahead over a supereon.

You're on..put a dollar into an appropriately secure GIC, and I'll collect my winnings in a few billion years.