[dwar0123]

2/1 with a good pickup partner but nothing discussed much less defense against nt interference. What is standard meaning of possible bids.

Imps

---

1nt = 15-17
2d = majors

[daveharty]

I think I would just bid 5C. I don't want to give the opps any room to discover how good their spade fit is. I think the standard meaning of 5C is "I want to play 5C."

[flametree]

I think I bid 3C and hope partner can judge what to do next. 3NT may be the best spot, while 11 tricks seems a stretch.

I would assume with a "good" pick-up partner that an immediate 3-level bid here is forcing.

[dwar0123]

Assuming it is forcing, what would 3 of a major by the NT bidder be? Asking for a stopper or declaring one.

[mike777]

5c


I dont want pard to bid 3nt with Jxx of clubs and ace of spades which she will over 3c.

[Cyberyeti]

5♣ is the practical bid.

3♣ might hit gold if partner has say xxxx, Ax, AKxx, AJx, but you're going to have to bid over a lot of spades so it probably won't help much.

[aguahombre]

mike777, on 2012-January-07, 19:40, said:

5c


I dont want pard to bid 3nt with Jxx of clubs and ace of spades which she will over 3c.

My "she" won't. 3C is not a probe for 3NT for us. If partner bids 3NT, she will have more than one stopper in both majors. Otherwise, she will start the probe, and I will never pass 3NT if that happens.

[broze]

My partnership has three options here:

1) 5♣ immediately
2) 2NT (Lebensohl) - 3♣ (relay) - 3♥ (declaring a ♥ stopper) - 3NT (if p has a ♠stopper; if he has no ♠ stopper the I will be investigating a ♣ slam)
3) 2♥ (5+ ♣ and game forcing)

Personally I prefer the last option. I'm not too bothered if the opps come in with their spades as I will happily compete to 5♣. Bidding 2♥ establishes an early force and has the advantage of right-siding the contract.

[whereagles]

It's an easy 5C: just count points (hcp+shape) or losers. Why make it harder than it is? As a rule, without the ace of the long suit, 5m is a better game.

[aguahombre]

whereagles, on 2012-January-08, 05:11, said:

It's an easy 5C: just count points (hcp+shape) or losers. Why make it harder than it is? As a rule, without the ace of the long suit, 5m is a better game.

Unless 3C helps us get to slam.

[whereagles]

That problem happens every time you're dealt a long 1 suiter and pard opens 1NT: with the right cards across, you make 6 or even 7. With the wrong ones you go down in 5.

Still, the statistical bid is 5. I've run some sims on 6-carders and the standard deviation appears to be in the neighborhood of ~0.7 tricks. That doesn't seem to be large enough to steer away from the statistical bid. Unless you have good (i.e. non messy) methods, of course.

Gonna do some 7 and 8 carders now.

[aguahombre]

The sims are good for likelihood of game or slam. But, they don't account for system. If 3C will get us to slam when it makes and to only 5 when it doesn't, then the sim becomes just a good guide for those who have no methods.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

broze, on 2012-January-08, 05:01, said:

My partnership has three options here:

1) 5♣ immediately
2) 2NT (Lebensohl) - 3♣ (relay) - 3♥ (declaring a ♥ stopper) - 3NT (if p has a ♠stopper; if he has no ♠ stopper the I will be investigating a ♣ slam)
3) 2♥ (5+ ♣ and game forcing)

Personally I prefer the last option. I'm not too bothered if the opps come in with their spades as I will happily compete to 5♣. Bidding 2♥ establishes an early force and has the advantage of right-siding the contract.

I too was wondering about 2♥! showing ♣ and 2♠! showing ♦ being better than the forcing bids of 3C or 3D ( Lebensohl context ) .
For one thing, the contract may be right-sided .
Also, I guess you can have Opener make a pre-accept"... or not.
For example:
1NT - ( 2D! ) - 2H![♣] - ( p )
??
.. 2S! = accept ♣
.. 3C = only 2 card ♣ support
.. 2NT = suggesting NT w/stop(s) in both majors

[aguahombre]

I guess it depends on what your methods are; one thing I would not be concerned with, on this hand is right-siding. I have a void in one of righty's suits and a guarded king in the other. What I don't want is for lefty to get a cheap shot spade call in before establishing my G.F./slam interest.

[rduran1216]

partner can't have spades?

5c is extremely unilateral

Will your partnership open 1NT on 5332 15 counts?

Just bid 3C and see how it develops, we can always bid 5C later

[whereagles]

aguahombre, on 2012-January-08, 17:59, said:

The sims are good for likelihood of game or slam. But, they don't account for system. If 3C will get us to slam when it makes and to only 5 when it doesn't, then the sim becomes just a good guide for those who have no methods.

Agree, of course. But how confident are you that you can sort it all out with little/no risk?

Anyway, for 7 carders the cover card expectancy lowers to ~3,5 cards, with slightly higher 0.75 deviation. The reason is probably the intuitive one: 7 carders need less cover cards across, but more pin-pointed ones. So it's natural to have lower expectancy and higher deviation.

EDIT: 8 carders have expectancy of ~3 cards and ~0.75 deviation.

Conclusion seems to be the longer the suit, the less cards you should play pard for. The suprise to me seems to be a somewhat constant deviation, though a considerable one. This deviation means the odds of getting 0.7 extra tricks is about 14% (1 out of 7 deals). A full extra trick should come up like 10% of the time. That's your odds of having a slam.

Note: I counted as cover card AKQ on a 3-7 card suit, AK on an 8 or 2 card suit and A on a singleton. Obviously this doesn't consider cases when opps make a bad lead and declarer has some quick discards.

[daveharty]

dwar0123, on 2012-January-07, 18:59, said:

2/1 with a good pickup partner but nothing discussed...

aguahombre, on 2012-January-08, 17:59, said:

...good guide for those who have no methods.

That was the context of the OP. Of course, if you have methods, use them.