how important is it to count winners at the start
#1
Posted 2011-December-10, 13:20
#2
Posted 2011-December-10, 13:27
You have Ax opposite Kx in the suit they lead against 3nt and have to decide which side suit to attack at trick 2. The one that will produce the most tricks goes down on a bad break when the other cinches the contract.
It's painful at first but well worth it and will become more and more auto if you invest the energy.
Try Louis Watson, Play of the Hand. It's about how to play IMP Bridge instead of Matchpoints, to my mind a more interesting form of the game.
Don't limit yourself to gonzo Bridge.
What is baby oil made of?
#3
Posted 2011-December-10, 20:13
So the only important thing is to make the contract, don't even consider overtrick if you're a beginner like me.

nemojames3, on 2011-December-10, 13:20, said:
#4
Posted 2011-December-10, 21:39
#6
Posted 2011-December-11, 02:41
#7
Posted 2011-December-11, 09:19
I know what you mean, it is very tricky, very complicated. That's why there are so many books discussing how to be a declarer. What we discuss-"make a plan" is a principle we should always follow. How to "make the plan" depends on the skill, both of us may not make the correct plan at most of time. But try to do it!
nemojames3, on 2011-December-11, 02:41, said:
#8
Posted 2011-December-11, 09:28

George Carlin
#9
Posted 2011-December-11, 09:29
markyears, on 2011-December-11, 09:19, said:
As an example when you need to establish 1 more winner with a choice of
1. leading low to the AQ and finessing or
2. leading low twice towards an AJT
1. will win faster but is 50%
2. will win slower but is 75% (either honour onside)
Counting is only the first step in making your plan but it's crucial and only gets quicker and easier with practice.
What is baby oil made of?
#10
Posted 2011-December-11, 09:44
nemojames3, on 2011-December-11, 02:41, said:
"As many tricks as possible" is a slippery concept. Say you are declaring 3NT and you have eight top tricks, with two alternative lines for getting more. You judge Option 1 to have a 90+% chance of success (say a finesse through someone who made a vulnerable preempt in the suit), and if it wins, you will have nine tricks. You judge Option 2 to have a 25% chance of success (say a double finesse in a side suit), and if it wins, you will have ten tricks. Ten tricks are "possible" but I would hardly say you should choose Option 2. Of course it's often hard to judge these things with any precision at the table; that's part of what makes bridge fun, in my view.
As others have noted, the answer is partially dependent on the form of scoring. At IMPs or rubber bridge scoring, overtricks are far less important than simply making or breaking a contract (although anyone who has ever lost a match by one IMP will tell you they aren't exactly meaningless). Your goal is normally clear, whether you are declaring or defending. At matchpoints it's much trickier to identify your goal on many hands; it might be the case that you must take a big risk to get an overtrick in a cold 3NT, because you think that the field will be in a making 4H contract, so your +400 will score poorly against the +420 everyone else is likely to get. Or you might cash out on defense, giving up on defeating a contract that it might still be possible to beat, because you judge that it's more likely that trying for the set will present declarer with overtricks.
In general, aguahombre is exactly right: counting is probably the single most important skill you can develop as a bridge player. That means counting winners and losers, high card points, and the distribution of each suit. It means counting both as declarer, and as a defender. If you develop that skill to the point that it is second nature on every hand, you will eventually be an excellent bridge player.
EDIT: LOL in the time it took to type this I see others have made similar points!
Dianne, I'm holding in my hand a small box of chocolate bunnies... --Agent Dale Cooper
#12
Posted 2011-December-11, 09:48
nemojames3, on 2011-December-11, 02:41, said:
Let's say you are in 3NT. You need 9 tricks. But the other thing to consider is that the opponents need 5. If you count your immediate winners and see, for example that you only have 8, then you need, somehow, to set up another winner somewhere. To intelligently make the correct choice of which winner(s) to set up, you have to bear in mind what the opponents are trying to do. Consider this hand:
You have 8 immediate winners (6♣ and 2 Aces). You need one more trick. You have two obvious ways to get some more winners - play on ♠ to knock out the Ace, which will set up two more winners, or take the ♥ finesse which, if it works, will give you one more winner.
Suppose, firstly, that the lead is a ♦. Since the opponents have 9♦ between them, after you take your Ace they will be threatening to take at least 4 tricks in ♦. You, therefore, can't afford to play on ♠ because as soon as they take the ♠A, they will cash enough ♦ to defeat you. Your best chance for the extra trick you need is the ♥ finesse. If it works you will make your contract exactly. But if it fails you will go down.
But suppose the lead is a ♣? Now it is risky to take the ♥ finesse as if it loses, they might switch to a ♦ and set up their winners. You still only have 8 top tricks, so eventually you will have to let them on lead and they will take 5. But instead of the ♥ finesse, knocking out the ♠A guarantees your contract - indeed it guarantees an overtrick. After they take the ♠A, they will have to let you on lead, and you will be able to cash (at least) 10 tricks.
#13
Posted 2011-December-11, 09:55
#14
Posted 2011-December-11, 10:35
Dianne, I'm holding in my hand a small box of chocolate bunnies... --Agent Dale Cooper
#16
Posted 2011-December-11, 11:34
#18
Posted 2011-December-11, 21:49
#19
Posted 2011-December-12, 01:46
#20
Posted 2011-December-12, 08:23

You might take a look at Planning the Play of a Bridge Hand, by Barabara Seagram and David Bird. The Watson book recommended upthread is good it's on my "top ten bridge books of all time" list but a little hard to read.
I have two rules for planning the play: at NT, "Count your winners", which usually starts with me looking at two aces in dummy and saying "one, two, okay, now what?" and at suit contracts: "Count your losers. When you get to thirteen, stop".

As for tv, screw it. You aren't missing anything. -- Ken Berg
Our ultimate goal on defense is to know by trick two or three everyone's hand at the table. -- Mike777
I have come to realise it is futile to expect or hope a regular club game will be run in accordance with the laws. -- Jillybean
#21
Posted 2011-December-13, 23:01
nemojames3, on 2011-December-12, 01:46, said:
9/10 the answer to that is 'Okay so I need to set up <longest suit> by <taking a finesse, trying to drop, whatever>, so I need to start <now/after drawing trumps>' and then you proceed. Try the express tournaments, they force you to be quick!