mikeh, on 2011-November-18, 13:21, said:
Only 3 out of 18 voters, so far, voted for pass absent a hesitation. I don't recall what the Laws or policy says about how popular a call must be before it is considered a LA: I have always thought of it as being a call that 25% of players (of the appropriate level) would make, and pass here is supported by significantly fewer than 25%.
I always learned and heard 25 % was the number too (I think from my parents). I think it was on the bridgebase forums that I learned that this number is not actually written anywhere, maybe it's just one of those old adages that is not rooted in fact. Put another way, say there was a poll of 5 experts, and 1 of them chose some action, the others choosing something different. Is it reasonable to say that that bid is not a LA? This was a pretty compelling way to get me to believe that 25 % is too much. I do think it would be helpful if it was written somewhere official what results constitute a bid not being an LA.
By the way, what are your views on whether or not people say a bid is close or not. Let's say 1 expert out of 5 passed but found it very close. 4 experts doubled and found it automatic. Compare this to 1 expert finding pass automatic, and 4 doubling and finding it extremely close. Is pass not an LA in 1, but an LA in 2? It is easy to say "yes" and I think most people would, but fwiw I don't think how close people find it should factor in, I think it should just be what people would choose to bid at the table. This is largely because I think people confuse "close." For instance, opening a bad 12 count, almost all experts do it, but people might say it's "close" as in, if you changed my hand very slightly I'd pass, or wow I hate opening this crap but I would I guess, but I have a lot of sympathy for passing it or... Of course, that is wrong. Marginal actions/minimum hands can also be automatic. This kind of hand is similar, I believe people may say it's close because if it was any worse it would be a pass, but almost all of my peers would do it, making passing not a logical alternative.