[Wackojack]

I think everything that should have been said has already been said, but in a haphazard sort of way. So here I try to put it all together neatly.

Trump suit only considered

3-3 break 35.5%
4-2 break = 48.5%. This will be Jx either side 1/3 of the time = 16.2%

Playing for the drop = 51.7%

Finesse = 0.5 of 3-3 +4-2 breaks = 42%

So play for the drop gives you about 10% more chance of success than finesse.

Play for the drop additional chance
When RHO has (3♥ or ♥Jx) and ♠Jxxx, then you get discard of 2 diamonds.
The exact chance of this is incalculable as you have to assume the opps distribution in ♣cs. This is subjective and conditioned by the opps ability and temperament. My rough estimation would be about 7%. So overall chance of success about 59%.

Trump finesse additional chance
You take the finesse and lose but RHO does not return a diamond. Tiny chance I think.


So the odds clearly favour playing for the drop in spades.

I hope this has covered all angles.

[AlexJonson]

Deleted - not right.