[Fluffy]

♠82
♥J10742
♦9742
♣KJ


nobody vul, IMPs

3♣!- (3♥) - 4♦-(4NT)
6♦ - ( X ) - pass-(6♥)
pass-pass-pass

3♣!= weak minors

[kit marley]

Fluffy, on 2011-November-09, 10:52, said:

♠82
♥J10742
♦9742
♣KJ


nobody vul, IMPs

3♣!- (3♥) - 4♦-(4NT)
6♦ - ( X ) - pass-(6♥)
pass-pass-pass

3♣!= weak minors

OK, I'll bite. If my lead matters, it has to be a ♦ or a ♣. It could be necessary to cash a trick
in either of these suits or to set up a trick in ♣s. A ♦ lead could blow a ♣ trick in the
obvious way and a ♣ lead can obviously blow a ♣ trick.

I'm going to lead the ♣J since even when it blows a ♣ trick, it looks like a stiff and may lead
to winning 2 ♥s.

[mikeh]

I think we need to try to construct the hands where it matters.

We have 2 trump tricks unless dummy has H8 or H9 (or better), in which case he may choose the safety play of low to dummy's spot.....unless we create the illusion that this is unsafe.

of course, we may simply be cashing a diamond winner. But I have trouble creating a layout on which we need to lead diamonds now.

I infer that dummy has a diamond control, and it isn't a void (4N keycard makes little sense with a void). I also infer that declarer has xx or equivalent in diamonds, for the double (unless double was a DOPI/DEPO type artificial call, in which case I think Fluffy would have told us).

This places dummy with something like AQJxxxx Q9 A Axx.

He doesn't have solid spades, else he'd have bid 6♠.

Since there is (I think) no hurry to cash a putative diamond, we lead a club in order to dissuade declarer from the winning safety play. And if we want to create the illusion of shortness, the J is far better than the K. It is impossible for dummy to hold Qx or Qxx in clubs, because of the 4N call, so we don't have to worry about our bluff being called by his covering with the Q. Indeed, since he will place partner with 12 or 13 minor suit cards, he won't duck dummy's Ace either.

He might worry about why partner didn't double for a spade lead if he were 0=1=6=6 or 0=1=5=7, but we can't cover everything.

I realize that I have merely agreed with kit, but hope that elaborating on my thinking is een as useful.

[MrAce]

I'd lead ♦

[Free]

I'd lead ♣K. Btw, where are all the ♠?

[Hanoi5]

Diamond for me.

[Fluffy]

IF you ask mike I think they will tell you its DOPI/DEPO

[whereagles]

Pard seems to have like a 6-5 or something like that with a void heart. With opps bidding this confidently and pard loaded with diamonds, I can hardly believe he'll have the club ace.

I'm going with a diamond. It's far more likely pard has the diamond ace than the club one. Besides, unless LHO has like 7402 the club finesse might still be needed.

[mikeh]

Fluffy, on 2011-November-10, 08:37, said:

IF you ask mike I think they will tell you its DOPI/DEPO

Thanks, Gonzalo

it doesn't change my lead, because I couldn't come up with a plausible layout on which they can dump their diamond loser....even if opener has AQ clubs, dummy can't have a stiff in both minors....that would give dummy at least 8 and usually 9 spades, and we call those suits 'trump'.

Maybe, just maybe, dummy has AQ of clubs, but, again, there is no plausible construction on which opener has only 2 minor suit cards.

I think anyone who leads a diamond should explain why the lead is necessary, as opposed to simply suggesting that partner has the A. Imo, if he has the A, he's always getting it. Meanwhile, we should see how best to beat the contract if he doesn't have that card.

[whereagles]

Mike: how about not blowing a club trick? That seems like a good reason to me.

[mikeh]

whereagles, on 2011-November-10, 14:14, said:

Mike: how about not blowing a club trick? That seems like a good reason to me.

Please show me a layout, consistent with the auction, on which 'blowing a club trick' allows the contract to make.....and on which a rational declarer would, for example, duck in dummy when the A is in dummy and the Q in hand (assuming one led the J, which seems clear in contxt). While you're at it, try to find a layout on which a diamond is necessary.

[Fluffy]

the real problem is not blowing a club trick, is that diamond taps someone later, and as the cards lie, club doesn´t

---

On ♣K lead declarer had no troubles making 12, perhaps on ♣J lead he ducks it in dummy and fails, can't tell.


anyway, letting 6♥ make wasn't very costly, on this online team match, the other table played 5♥XX -3 for -1000, so it was -14 IMps or -18. Just 4 IMPs for letting a slam go


EDIT: Just realiced this is not DEPO, sorry. Declarer commented something about doubling with 3 aces not having been a good idea later.

[MrAce]

mikeh, on 2011-November-10, 14:36, said:

While you're at it, try to find a layout on which a diamond is necessary.

---

[Lurpoa]

MrAce, on 2011-November-09, 20:12, said:

I'd lead ♦

♥♥♥

I would say: ♦


♥♥♥