[Hanoi5]

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♦A is led. I unblocked an honour from dummy and RHO discarded a spade! Another middle diamond is led and ruffed by RHO who returned the second smallest trump (having used the smallest for ruffing). You play a heart honour and LHO drops the J. MP's.

Incidentally, should South prefer 3NT? Should North?

[gwnn]

Looks like a restricted choice situation made stronger by the vacant space analysis in diamonds. Finesse in trumps is right.

Regarding your incidental questions:

North was asked a question and should answer it.
South sees the double fit so obviously he prefers 4♥.
Anyway isn't 4♥ a better contract than 3N?

[hatchett]

At the critical point east has 10 vacant spaces (0 ♦ and 3 low ♥), west has 7 vacant places (5 ♦ and ♥J)
Applying restricted choice to west's vacant spaces reduces them by half. so the finesse is 10/3.5 favourite, or nearly 3 to 1.

[billw55]

gwnn, on 2011-November-01, 06:24, said:

Looks like a restricted choice situation made stronger by the vacant space analysis in diamonds. Finesse in trumps is right.

True enough. Against that, east returned a trump, something he might be reluctant to do holding the queen; for some players this is a very strong inference. I would decide my play based on what I know or think about the player sitting there. If I think he is capable of leading a trump away from the queen, I will try the finesse for your reasons. Otherwise, I try the drop.

[CSGibson]

billw55, on 2011-November-01, 06:43, said:

True enough. Against that, east returned a trump, something he might be reluctant to do holding the queen; for some players this is a very strong inference. I would decide my play based on what I know or think about the player sitting there. If I think he is capable of leading a trump away from the queen, I will try the finesse for your reasons. Otherwise, I try the drop.

Your inference about leading away from the Q is meaningless on this hand. Look at the dummy. Plenty of entries for finesses, and neither black suit lead is attractive. A bridge player of any skill level might return a trump from just about any holding.

Taking the restricted choice option & finessing is the percentage play, which is why you might want to play for the drop playing matchpoints. Presumably you are behind on the hand already because they got their diamond ruff on a non-obvious lead. You might have to take an anti-percentage action just to catch up a bit.

[billw55]

CSGibson, on 2011-November-01, 07:35, said:

Your inference about leading away from the Q is meaningless on this hand. Look at the dummy. Plenty of entries for finesses, and neither black suit lead is attractive. A bridge player of any skill level might return a trump from just about any holding.

Taking the restricted choice option & finessing is the percentage play, which is why you might want to play for the drop playing matchpoints. Presumably you are behind on the hand already because they got their diamond ruff on a non-obvious lead. You might have to take an anti-percentage action just to catch up a bit.

Certainly a competent player will see that the trump continuation is without risk. But as you say, LHO's opening lead is "non-obvious" .. which may be a generous term. Perhaps RHO also has .. different ideas about what is obvious? I just think it is worth considering at the table. I try to consider whatever inferences there may be, in addition to percentages. How I weight the inferences obviously depends on the exact circumstances. If I consider this inference, and still decide to take the percentage play, I haven't lost anything.

[Free]

The combination of restricted choice and vacant spaces clearly tell us to finesse.

[billw55]

CSGibson, on 2011-November-01, 07:35, said:

Taking the restricted choice option & finessing is the percentage play, which is why you might want to play for the drop playing matchpoints. Presumably you are behind on the hand already because they got their diamond ruff on a non-obvious lead. You might have to take an anti-percentage action just to catch up a bit.

Interesting point. If we take the percentage play (finesse), we may very well have a bad score whether it works or not - making 11 tricks to the field's 12 if it works, and 10 to the field's 11 if it doesn't. This may be a better reason to play for the drop than the inference I brought up.

Maybe now we need to analyze the field. Do we think any pairs be playing 3NT? Or that this lead may occur at other tables? Or that some declarers don't understand restricted choice? I think I would need a fairly decent field to be confident that I am a trick behind.