[jillybean]

---

lead was ♠2 , how do you play to play this?
4♣ KC Gerber

(yes, the auction leaves a lot to be desired)

[Fluffy]

start with 4 spades pitching a heart and see what they discard, if nothing, my best aim is to play ♣AK to see if ♣Q doubleton comes down, otherwise try diamodn finese agaisnt west who didn't lead a diamond because of something

[phil_20686]

Unless the discards changed my mind I would play to cash 5 spades 3hearts 2 diamonds and the club king, hoping for a diamond club squeeze or the club finesse depending how I felt about the layout.

[Fluffy]

I think this is a mistake phil, the spade lead makes the fineses against west a favourite. West didn't lead a diamond nor a club, that should be because of something.

[gordontd]

Fluffy, on 2011-October-16, 15:44, said:

West didn't lead a diamond nor a club, that should be because of something.

He didn't lead a heart either.

[Hanoi5]

Yeah, he led the only suit not bid. I'd play 5 spades throwing clubs from dummy, then hearts, then diamonds. At the end clubs from the top and hopefully the count/discards would have revealed something or the same person would have held both minor suit queens.

[Fluffy]

gordontd, on 2011-October-16, 16:25, said:

He didn't lead a heart either.

yeah he went random form the suits he had nothing, and picked spaded. Its not a sure thing, but this is a very common situation of restricted choice. He picked spades over diamonds, might it not be that he cannot pick diamonds?

The simple math for 2 suits (spades and diamonds) goes like this:

He has stuff in diamonds 50%

If he has stuff in diamonds he leads a spade 100%

If nothing in either he leasd randomly

50% of the time he leads 100% a spade, and 50% of te time he leads 50% a spade, so 75% of the time he leads a spade, and of that 75%, only 25% is because he led randomly, the other 50% is because he had no other option. So 2/3 times he lead a spade because he has stuff in diamonds.

With more suits things get more complicated, but it is always aboive 50%.

[kemperb]

Hanoi5, on 2011-October-16, 18:11, said:

Yeah, he led the only suit not bid. I'd play 5 spades throwing clubs from dummy, then hearts, then diamonds. At the end clubs from the top and hopefully the count/discards would have revealed something or the same person would have held both minor suit queens.

Truthfully, no suits were bid, since all suit bids were artificial in this auction. Still, with no other info, the opening leader is still somewhat more likely to hold the ♣Q (and likewise the ♦Q) than not based on restricted choice.

I would certainly run the five spades, pitching two clubs from dummy, then I think I would continue by cashing ♣KA. If the queen doesn't drop, I'll hopefully have enough info from the discards to determine whether to take the diamond finesse (i.e. save the heart entry to overcome the blockage) or whether to cash the three hearts and go for a club/diamond squeeze.

[kemperb]

Fluffy, on 2011-October-16, 19:00, said:

yeah he went random form the suits he had nothing, and picked spaded. Its not a sure thing, but this is a very common situation of restricted choice. He picked spades over diamonds, might it not be that he cannot pick diamonds?

The simple math for 2 suits (spades and diamonds) goes like this:

He has stuff in diamonds 50%

If he has stuff in diamonds he leads a spade 100%

If nothing in either he leasd randomly

50% of the time he leads 100% a spade, and 50% of te time he leads 50% a spade, so 75% of the time he leads a spade, and of that 75%, only 25% is because he led randomly, the other 50% is because he had no other option. So 2/3 times he lead a spade because he has stuff in diamonds.

With more suits things get more complicated, but it is always aboive 50%.

If we assume equal probability of leading from a suit without an honor regardless of suit length, then the odds work like this:
Case 1: If he has no honors: 3/12 ♠/♥/♦/♣ led
Case 2: If he has only ♣Q: 4/12 ♠/♥/♦
Case 3: If he has only ♦Q: 4/12 ♠/♥/♣
Case 4: If he has both queens: 6/12 ♠/♥

Thus, there are 17 equal chances of a spade lead: 6 of them where he has both queens, 3 where he has neither, and 4 each where he has ♣Q or ♦Q alone. He is 10/17 to have the ♣Q (Case 2 + Case 4), and similarly 10/17 to have the ♦Q (Case 3 + Case 4). So a priori the finesse against the opening leader for the ♦Q is about 60%, and of the club/diamond squeeze working is 9/17 (Case 1 + Case 4), or about 54%.

Of course, when you cash other suits, you may gain information that skews the odds. And it is of course not the same to lead from xx as it is to lead from xxxxxx in this auction. It is definitely a hand to keep the defenders in the dark as long as possible and force them to discard blind, while not committing to either line, for as long as possible.

BTW, what is "KC Gerber"? You can't ask for keycards when there is no trump suit agreed upon, so shouldn't it just be "Gerber"?

[han]

Definitely start with 5 rounds of spades pitching 2 clubs. Then see what happens.

[jillybean]

kemperb, on 2011-October-31, 15:10, said:

BTW, what is "KC Gerber"? You can't ask for keycards when there is no trump suit agreed upon, so shouldn't it just be "Gerber"?

No, it is not gerber. The responses are 14, 30, 2/min, 2/max.

[phil_20686]

Fluffy, on 2011-October-16, 15:44, said:

I think this is a mistake phil, the spade lead makes the fineses against west a favourite. West didn't lead a diamond nor a club, that should be because of something.

Yes, but against a very large number of players after 8 major suit winners ending in dummy you will have a very good idea of the layout.

[mikeh]

I agree with all of those who suggest running the spades early...I'd pitch one club and one heart, rather than 2 clubs.....but it makes no real difference.

Arguing about who has what is sort of futile at this juncture.

While there is an argument that LHO will seek to make a neutral lead, and wouldn't lead from a minor Queen, the fact is that he probably would not lead a minor no matter what his holding.

Dummy almost certainly lacks a 4 card major and thus always has at least one 4+ minor. We rate to hold an 8+ minor fit more than we do an 8 card major, and perhaps more importantly, I think we rate to hold a 5 or 6 card major suit fit more often than in a minor. And when he holds nothing, he'll want to try to hit our short suit(s) since that gives away less. Thus I think he'll almost always lead a major.

Yes, I know that on the actual hand, this reasoning proves inaccurate but that isn't the point.

So I don't think LHO is ever leading a minor (except from great length) regardless of what minor honours he has or lacks.

As for the play: running the spades then the hearts, pitching 2 clubs from dummy, seems like the best approach, to me.

As for what we do in the endgame, well, I'd need to be at the table. Very good players can discard uninformatively but most players aren't 'very good players'.

I would, for the very little it may be worth, cash a heart in dummy early, since most players give honest count against grands, even tho they usually shouldn't..they should usually simply play up the line.

In a vacuum, and we would never be in a vacuum at the table.....we'd have a lot of major suit distribution worked out, and maybe all of it......I'd be planning to cash two diamonds and, if the Q hasn't appeared, consider whether to cash the club K and low to the J or the King and low to the A, playing for the squeeze...I would go with whatever seemed to me to be the most probable, given whatever inferences I have about how the minors were distributed.

[Free]

Whatever you, if West has ♠K you're screwed. You can only make 2♠ (after this lead), 3♥, 3♦ and 4♣ for a total of 12 tricks. So we need the ♠, lets start with that shall we?

[mikeh]

Free, on 2011-November-07, 07:09, said:

Whatever you, if West has ♠K you're screwed. You can only make 2♠ (after this lead), 3♥, 3♦ and 4♣ for a total of 12 tricks. So we need the ♠, lets start with that shall we?

I think everyone who posted assumed the spade K was onside So, having made that assumption, the point was how to play the hand thereafter.

[Free]

mikeh, on 2011-November-07, 11:07, said:

I think everyone who posted assumed the spade K was onside So, having made that assumption, the point was how to play the hand thereafter.

Well actually, since this is B/I, some B/I's might wonder why we make that assumption. That's what my post contributed.

As for the continuation, it depends on what happened. Discarding 2♣s on the long ♠ seems obvious.