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Opening bid - the plan -

#1 User is offline   Ant590 

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Posted 2011-August-01, 17:12

IMPs in a reasonable field.



What's the opening bid / later plan?
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#2 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-August-01, 17:15

1c


If pard bids 1d or 1nt I will try 3nt.
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#3 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2011-August-01, 17:38

the benefits of opening 2c with this hand are slim and none
and it is also a tad light for such an action. I would start

1c

and plan my bidding accordingly

if p bids 1d I would bid 3n hoping they will
bid 4n if they have decent ten count balanced.

if p bids 1h I would bid 2s (if they then bid 3s I would jump
to 5c and if they bid 4s I would bid 6c)

if p bids 1s I would bid 2h doing the same with clubs if p
raises hearts as i did with spades.

if p bids 1n I think it safer to bid 5c

if p bids 2n I would be in slam range and I would start with
3h (which should show concern for diamonds (and possibly spades)
for nt purposes. If p cannot stop dia we should just bid 6c
and be happy even if 7 makes. If p bids 3n our odds of slam
go down significantly and I think pass is best.
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#4 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-August-01, 21:35

fwiw hate to reverse into 3 card major if I have another option


Really hate to jumpshift into 2 card major, too far. :)


--


Granted no good options....hopefully opp will overcall or pard will not force me into an ugly 3nt rebid over major.
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#5 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2011-August-01, 21:49

this is a clear 2 opener. this is from someone who rarely opens 2
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#6 User is offline   chasetb 

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Posted 2011-August-01, 22:15

Especially at IMPs, I would open this as a Gambling 3NT even if playing Precision. In 3rd and 4th seats, the weak Gambling 3NT makes no sense, and in fact give the opponents a few extra bids to describe their hands. If partner is broke, I still have a chance of stealing a Vul game (38.5%). With most hands I expect to make this, and if partner has 3 or 4 controls and 9-11 HCP, (s)he should bid 4NT to show further interest.
"It's not enough to win the tricks that belong to you. Try also for some that belong to the opponents."

"Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself."

"One advantage of bad bidding is that you get practice at playing atrocious contracts."

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#7 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 03:35

View PostAnt590, on 2011-August-01, 17:12, said:

IMPs in a reasonable field.



What's the opening bid / later plan?


View Postmike777, on 2011-August-01, 17:15, said:

1c


If pard bids 1d or 1nt I will try 3nt.


View Postgszes, on 2011-August-01, 17:38, said:

the benefits of opening 2c with this hand are slim and none
and it is also a tad light for such an action. I would start

1c
...

Both deserve a dummy similar to Kxx x Qxxxxx xxx

But this craziness can apparently be topped:

View Postchasetb, on 2011-August-01, 22:15, said:

Especially at IMPs, I would open this as a Gambling 3NT even if playing Precision. In 3rd and 4th seats, the weak Gambling 3NT makes no sense, and in fact give the opponents a few extra bids to describe their hands. If partner is broke, I still have a chance of stealing a Vul game (38.5%). With most hands I expect to make this, and if partner has 3 or 4 controls and 9-11 HCP, (s)he should bid 4NT to show further interest.

This guy deserves a dummy like KQJx,xxx,xxx,xxx

View Postwank, on 2011-August-01, 21:49, said:

this is a clear 2 opener. this is from someone who rarely opens 2

Finally a lone star with some sense for hand evaluation.
I sometimes get the impression that something is seriously wrong calling this department "Advanced and Expert-Class-Bridge".

Rainer Herrmann
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#8 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 04:15

View Postrhm, on 2011-August-02, 03:35, said:

Both deserve a dummy similar to Kxx x Qxxxxx xxx

I don't profess to be A/E but my partner would routinely respond 1 with this hand
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#9 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 04:24

View Postshyams, on 2011-August-02, 04:15, said:

I don't profess to be A/E but my partner would routinely respond 1 with this hand

Of course and both suggested 3NT over 1. Now I guess even your partner would not find another bid over 3NT with 7 cold.

Rainer Herrmann
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#10 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 05:04


Ant590 asks "IMPs in a reasonable field. What's the opening bid / later plan?"

IMO 2 = 10, 1 = 8
Agree with wank and rhm that 2 is best. The traditional test for a two opener is "more honour tricks than losers". If you open 1 then you may forgo the chance of implementing a "later plan" :(

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#11 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 05:53

1, frequency of 3NT being a better contract than 6 or 7 is much higher I think. We may have slam opposite unlikely hands where opps keep passing their good Major suits while being short in our suit and we are somehow able to figure out that responder's primairy suit is poor, but I'll just take my chances with 1-1-3NT.

Anyone up for some simulation? Don't forget opps are favorable so they may preempt aggressively in 1st or 3rd seat... ;)
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#12 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 06:13

View PostFree, on 2011-August-02, 05:53, said:

1, frequency of 3NT being a better contract than 6 or 7 is much higher I think. We may have slam opposite unlikely hands where opps keep passing their good Major suits while being short in our suit and we are somehow able to figure out that responder's primairy suit is poor, but I'll just take my chances with 1-1-3NT.

Anyone up for some simulation? Don't forget opps are favorable so they may preempt aggressively in 1st or 3rd seat... ;)

One danger of 1 is that partner has something like xxxx, Kxx, Jxxx, xx and this is plenty for 5 although opps will almost certainly rescue you here.

Do you have the mechanisms to catch up with just how vast this hand is opposite KQxx and xx ?

I would open 1 with the minors reversed, but due to a system kink, would open 2 with this as I show a GF one suiter with clubs after 1-1suit by bidding a GF unbal 2N then a NF 3N which I don't want to do.
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#13 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 07:41

View PostFree, on 2011-August-02, 05:53, said:

1, frequency of 3NT being a better contract than 6 or 7 is much higher I think.

I doubt this.
Assume 6 does not make. The most likely reason is that partner is weak.
Against 3NT opponents will attack the suit where you have at most one stopper. If do not run you need 2 stopper in every suit. In this case there will often be 12 tricks in even with a loser in .
If run, you have ten solid tricks in your hand. Not likely that you will not have a play for 12 tricks then.

But even if your believe that 3NT is a likely good contract (I don't), why does a 2 opening stop you from reaching it?

Quote

We may have slam opposite unlikely hands where opps keep passing their good Major suits while being short in our suit and we are somehow able to figure out that responder's primairy suit is poor, but I'll just take my chances with 1-1-3NT.

Why is this the most likely scenario for slam missed?
Let partner bid a major. Now what? You can now rebid what you like. Reverse in a non suit or jump around. Nothing will convince partner that you have such a monster.
It will be rather a hit and miss affair by you with little cooperation from partner.
For the record: The Rubens-Kaplan elevator, which is a good one for trump contracts, considers this hand worth 24.5 points.
And if opponents do interfere. What does it help to open 1? Partner just needs KQJx in either major and a doubleton for 7 to be excellent.

Quote

Anyone up for some simulation? Don't forget opps are favorable so they may preempt aggressively in 1st or 3rd seat... ;)

Oh I can simulate if you tell me what restrictions you want to apply to the other hands.
From experience I know whatever I simulate to prove or falsify a claim, those who do not like the result will critic the assumptions made for the simulation, no matter what these assumptions had been.

I ran a blank simulation (1000 deals), specifying nothing for the other hands.

Result:

Average number of tricks in notrump: 9.58
Average number of tricks in : 11.56

3NT made on 640 deals

7 made on 274 deals
6 made on 568 deals
5 made on 774 deals

To simulate the effectiveness of the specific sequence 1-1-3NT, I specified in a separate simulation for partner to have at least a 5 card suit and any other suit being shorter than .
Then 3NT makes more often of course: 842 deals
But 7 still makes on 236 deals and 6 on 497 deals

But partner will almost never disturb 3NT even when there are 12 tricks in or even notrump (268 deals), because he is almost always not strong enough to invite.

Rainer Herrmann
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#14 User is offline   Flem72 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 07:52

[quote What's the opening bid / later plan?
[/quote]

1 K-S C, then, if it's not all pass, 3 K-S C, claiming a one-suited, 9-trick hand. I'm telling you, K-S minor structures r duh bom.

Regards and Happy Trails,

Scott Needham
Boulder, Colorado, USA
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#15 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 08:44

You have first round control in every suit and AK eight in clubs

I can't conceive of a bid other than 2
(Even if you have some high level preempt to show a good suit, good hand this hand has way too many controls to consider it)
Alderaan delenda est
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#16 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-August-02, 08:49

I would open 2, because unless you play some specialized gadget after 1 - 1x, its very hard to catch up. Its virtually impossible the opponents will let us play 1, but thats not the point.

I need 10 tricks to open 2 when I have a minor, and this hand has a great suit and nice controls.

By the way, after 2, I will not pass 3N.
Hi y'all!

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