[jillybean]

---

2♣*gf clubs or balanced

[blackshoe]

If 2NT shows 12-14 or 18-19, then 4NT almost required. South, however, has nothing extra. Seems like an okay auction to me. Not every contract is guaranteed to make.

[rduran1216]

good auction, I'd bid 1NT forcing then 3NT to show this hand, although opener will bid 2 or 3NT after 1nt, so anyhow this was a good auction.

[Cyberyeti]

Looks a good auction, is this an "everything worked and I made 6/7" or "nothing worked and I didn't make 4" or "partner said I was off planet" situation ?

[jmcw]

Mostly agree with earlier posters, I like the auction.

Some might quibble with North's evaluation. In spite of only 18 points he has 2 "10's" and a pretty good ♠ suit, a case can be made for opening 2NT, but, as I said, I pretty much agree with the given auction.

[kayin801]

I think you can only make a case for opening 2NT if your range involves 19 counts.

I think 4♣ by N would have been okay after 3NT in case S had a hand that got better with a club fit, (Qx, Qxx, Axx, KQxxx or xx, Axx, QJx, KQxxx or something unless you'd bid 3♣ with those), but I'd expect S to just bid 4NT with both reds held well and a min with only 4 clubs after that.

The auction is very good and very practical though. I'm guessing you made 6 since you'd need pretty much every heart with W and every spade with E to not make 10 tricks here. And you'd have to misguess diamonds. And clubs would have to not come in

[wyman]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-July-21, 03:14, said:

is this an "everything worked and I made 6/7" or "nothing worked and I didn't make 4" or "partner said I was off planet" situation ?

That we can't tell is evidence that we consider this a totally normal auction

[jillybean]

Yes, 6 is there and 2 pairs bid it.

[wyman]

jillybean, on 2011-July-21, 09:14, said:

Yes, 6 is there and 2 pairs bid it.

Looks like you need quite a bit of help (either from the defense or the lay of the cards). I don't want to be there at any form of scoring, unless I'm way behind in the last Q of a team match.

edit: e.g., PTP on a club lead, and suppose clubs break 4-2.

[matmat]

jillybean, on 2011-July-21, 09:14, said:

Yes, 6 is there and 2 pairs bid it.

There really should be a "resulting" forum.

What do you think the odds of making 6NT on this hand are, jillybean?

[jillybean]

matmat, on 2011-July-21, 09:20, said:

There really should be a "resulting" forum.

What do you think the odds of making 6NT on this hand are, jillybean?

Yep you're right, sorry.

[Antrax]

matmat, on 2011-July-21, 09:20, said:

There really should be a "resulting" forum.

What do you think the odds of making 6NT on this hand are, jillybean?

I'll bite. Isn't it almost enough if the queen of spades is right? That + spades 4-2 or better is 11 tricks, and then if J♥ is doubleton or clubs 3-3 or you guess diamonds (or got a diamond lead) is 12. Is it really such a terrible slam to be in?

[matmat]

duplicate post. web browser messing around with me today.

[matmat]

Antrax, on 2011-July-21, 11:58, said:

I'll bite. Isn't it almost enough if the queen of spades is right? That + spades 4-2 or better is 11 tricks, and then if J♥ is doubleton or clubs 3-3 or you guess diamonds (or got a diamond lead) is 12. Is it really such a terrible slam to be in?

if you find the ♠q (a roughly 50% proposition) you're up to 11 tricks after you knock out the ♥A. you still need something good to happen in one of the suits, probably another factor of 1/2 or so. I'm not arguing this is an accurate computation, but I'd guess this was an approximately 30% slam. "Terrible" is an overbid, but it isn't one you want to get to with any frequency if you want to have consistently good results.

--- edit
it might be a touch higher than I've given it credit for originally; 33 break in ♣ is 38% or so, and the two-way guess in ♦ is half of the remaining 62%, so just combining these two chances gives you ~35% overall. there's also a chance of bringing down the ♥J or some sort of a squeeze.

It's still well below 50%, I think.

This post has been edited by matmat: 2011-July-21, 12:19

[Phil]

Antrax, on 2011-July-21, 11:58, said:

I'll bite. Isn't it almost enough if the queen of spades is right? That + spades 4-2 or better is 11 tricks, and then if J♥ is doubleton or clubs 3-3 or you guess diamonds (or got a diamond lead) is 12. Is it really such a terrible slam to be in?

The way you should look at this is that if the ♠Q is off, you are sunk. If it is on, you still have some work to do or guess well.

[jh51]

Antrax, on 2011-July-21, 11:58, said:

I'll bite. Isn't it almost enough if the queen of spades is right? That + spades 4-2 or better is 11 tricks, and then if J♥ is doubleton or clubs 3-3 or you guess diamonds (or got a diamond lead) is 12. Is it really such a terrible slam to be in?

Thr spade finesse is 50%. I think if you add in the "no worse than 4-2" requirement, that probably reduces the chances to about 42%. That brings you to 11. I am not going to try to compute the probabity of getting at least one of the other requirements, but let us guess that the probability is somewhere around 90%. That reduces the chance of slam to about 38%.

At IMPs, this would definitely be wrong, and at MP I suspect it would depend upon what kind of score you need. It was said that only 2 pars were there, so it is a top or bottom thing if you bid it, and the odds are that it will be a bottom. I'd want to be with the field most of the time with this one.