655321, on 2011-June-20, 23:01, said:
Ah, but I hadn't seen Phil's line when I posted, Phil's line looks to be 100% when hearts and spades both break doesn't it?
It is a fair line but not a legitimate one.
Good defenders will not play a
♥ but force North with
♣ plays when in with the first
♠.
If North now plays a 2nd
♠ they will stop the cross ruff with a trump.
There is now no way of establishing
♠ and cashing them and a cross ruff will yield only 9 tricks.
The only legitimate way I see of making this hand is to play for
♠ being blocked (
♠AK tight, about a 7% chance) and playing a
♣ at trick 2.
Note that you will need nerves of steel if opponents return trumps.
To make the hand you must refuse the urge to overtake dummy's trumps to discard
♠ on high
♦.
Instead you must win the first and second trump return in dummy and play
♠ from dummy.
In practice it might be more profitable to hope for some type of mis-defense.
Whether Phil's line or the legitimate line is more likely to lead to mis-defense can be argued.
Rainer Herrmann