[Flameous]

Imps, vul vs. not you hold

KT4
Q9743
A4
Q95

(4♠) P (P) X
(P) ?

How strongly do you feel of your choice?

[semeai]

The decision is between pass and 5♥.

It seems close, but I'll say pass. I'm not great at these decisions, so let me think it through:

To make 5♥, somewhat simplistically partner needs maybe 4 of the 6 of:

♠A/void
♥A
♥K(maybe J)
♦K
♣A
♣K(maybe J)

plus some breaks/finesses/spot cards if certain ones are held.

To follow through with this simplistic analysis: If he holds 4 of them, it seems we're getting 650 instead of 300/500 (4 or 8 imps). If he holds 3 of them, we're getting -100 instead of 100/300 (5 or 9 imps).

These are close, so if this all makes sense, it boils down to "bid 5♥ if you think you can make it," i.e. if you think partner doubling makes 4 of those cards more likely than 3.

I still have no clue, but I guess there are also factors I've left out that make passing better (bad splits, extra spade tricks on defense, etc), so let's stick with that.

[helene_t]

according to the LOTT, if p has a 1444, there are 18 tricks. You often adjust one trick up for opener's 7+ card suit, but on the other hand our hearts are bad for offense and our spade holding good for defense, even the ten might be promotable in defense. If there are 19 total tricks it is borderline as it might be +650 against +300 but also -100 or -200 against +100. Maybe we have slam but if so we might not be able to bid it and it may be +680 against +500. If there are 18 total tricks, which I think is more likely, then it could be -100 or -200 against +300, or +680 against +800, or +650 against +500.

So using the LOTT it looks close but my immediate reaction was that it was a clear pass and I didn't have to do the LOTT calculations.

[nige1]

Flameous, on 2011-June-17, 13:53, said:

Imps, vul vs. not you hold KT4 Q9743 A4 Q95
(4♠) P (P) X
(P) ?

IMO 5♥ = 10, _P = 9, 6♥ = 5 Hoping that partner has 14+ HCP outside spades.

[Phil]

In favor of bidding:

- the vulnerability
- extra values

In favor of passing:

- poor shape
- poor suit
- lots of defense and a lead and a spade card I can promote.

I pass

[gnasher]

I pass, and don't think it's a close decision. We could easily have three losers in 5♥, and I'd expect to get 500 from 4♠.

[AlexJonson]

My immediate reaction was to bid 5H, on the basis I'm likely to make 300 in defence versus 650 in Hearts.

On the basis of other replies, I need to think hard about my evaluation of this kind of position.

[pooltuna]

pass! take the money in hand.

[awm]

This kind of problem seems easier at IMPs. I'd pass.

It seems like we will usually get 500 out of 4♠X. This is obviously losing a few to +650, but sometimes 5♥ isn't making, in which case we're winning a lot. In other words, 5♥ has to make a really high percentage of the time before pulling is better at IMPs. At MP it is tougher.

[barryallen]

AlexJonson, on 2011-June-17, 17:15, said:

My immediate reaction was to bid 5H, on the basis I'm likely to make 300 in defence versus 650 in Hearts.

On the basis of other replies, I need to think hard about my evaluation of this kind of position.

Very similar feelings, but if I am making 650, I would expect to make 500 in defence. Partner must have doubled on decent values or more shape with less values. Even for LHO to have an A and K (not same suit) or 2K, I would still heavily favour the chances of making 5♥, as long as it's your standard pre-emptive opening. The key to this is that partner has crossed the Rubicon with the double and all the signs he does not have ♠ tricks. It is difficult for me to construct a hand where we would not be favourites for 5♥ after the double and fair possibilities of the slam. Missing important cards have a good chance of being placed with LHO? For me the 5♥ becomes automatic with the added possible slam or just what was partner doing doubling in the first place?

Like yourself I am wondering what I am missing here in note of the other replies and the answer has to lie in the double? Normally I would take this as favouring take out, especially holding ♠Kxx.

[655321]

I would pass, and I seem to play this double as much more takeout oriented than many posters.

[whereagles]

I lead the diamond ace. Seems like a no brainer.