[Phil]

R/W

987 J4 T932 A982

Pard opens 1♥. RHO overcalls 1♠ and LHO raises to 2♠ over your pass.

Lead?

[jonottawa]

Phil, on 2011-June-11, 23:09, said:

R/W

987 J4 T932 A982

Pard opens 1♥. RHO overcalls 1♠ and LHO raises to 2♠ over your pass.

Lead?

♥J WTP? (I like it when partners lead my suit absent a compelling alternative and most of my pards seem to feel the same.)

I'd prolly negative x, but I guess it's tempting to pass at these colors. I'd say that's a tougher question than the lead 'problem', no?

[Hanoi5]

♥J, wtp?

[aguahombre]

Since it was posted by Phil in "Interesing Bridge Hands", we can expect he will get to the interesting part.

[bluecalm]

I sometimes like to make simulations for such problems to see if double dummy results reflects common knowledge about obvious situations.
Results of my simulation (with very simplistic assumptions about the bidding):

Card which leads to the most tricks for defense (out of 1000 hands):

9♠ - 733
J♥ - 892
4♥ - 893 (!?)
9♦ - 783
2♦ - 793
A♣ - 670
2♣ - 688

sure enough

[barryallen]

aguahombre, on 2011-June-12, 02:47, said:

Since it was posted by Phil in "Interesing Bridge Hands", we can expect he will get to the interesting part.

Always interesting to see various options, but the majority of the time the "answer" is an irrelevance unless a logical selection can be made from the bidding and cards held. If you are going against the percentages it has to be done with good reason. It's possible the ♥J will cost tricks and that leading trumps is the way to go. Alternately leading the trump denies you a ruff and you let the contract slip through. Just a question of whether you go with something that works most of the time or some of the time?

I doubt many would select the ♥J unless partner had bid them, but partner has bid them.

[aguahombre]

bluecalm, on 2011-June-12, 05:10, said:

most tricks for defense (out of 1000 hands):

J♥ - 892
4♥ - 893 (!?)

Yep, one of my mind-hashes while trying to get to sleep came up with this one.

Dummy has XXX and declarer KTX; If the Jack were led, partner might just duck to get his tricks in the suit. But if the 4 were led, declarer and partner might guess it was a singleton when the Ace pops and a low one is led back. The 4 is also better than the Jack if one does not trust partner.

[Phil]

bluecalm, on 2011-June-12, 05:10, said:

I sometimes like to make simulations for such problems to see if double dummy results reflects common knowledge about obvious situations.
Results of my simulation (with very simplistic assumptions about the bidding):

Card which leads to the most tricks for defense (out of 1000 hands):

9♠ - 733
J♥ - 892
4♥ - 893 (!?)
9♦ - 783
2♦ - 793
A♣ - 670
2♣ - 688

sure enough

I was hoping would perform a sim without asking. What were your 'simplistic bidding assumptions' if I may ask?

[bluecalm]

Some stuff like 9-14hcp for overcaller and 6-9 for responder, partner having 5hearts with 11-15 range but not 5-5 or 6-4 if 14+. something like that Ican't remember exactly. It doesn't matter much, I often played with various assumptions for such problems and results doesn't vary too much as long as they are sensible.

[matmat]

bluecalm, on 2011-June-12, 05:10, said:

J♥ - 892
4♥ - 893 (!?)

I very much doubt this difference is significant.

[benlessard]

I would lead the 4 of H if i knew the hand would be double dummy after my lead. The J can easily cost a trick and the usual advantage of leading high are not there. (keeping the lead, unblocking etc) Even with Hxx on dummy and partner AHT its no big deal since ill ruff with a insignificant trump.

Its surprising that its only 1 trick difference i would have expect more.

[Bbradley62]

matmat, on 2011-June-12, 11:56, said:

bluecalm, on 2011-June-12, 05:10, said:

J♥ - 892
4♥ - 893 (!?)

I very much doubt this difference is significant.

I think the surprise is that ♥4 is just as good as ♥J, not that it's necessarily better than the J.

[kayin801]

Bbradley62, on 2011-June-12, 12:12, said:

I think the surprise is that ♥4 is just as good as ♥J, not that it's necessarily better than the J.

Except the 4 can possibly mislead your partner on the defense of the hand (and not just at trick 1) and can cost you tricks that a double dummy simulation wouldn't pick up.

[Bbradley62]

kayin801, on 2011-June-12, 12:29, said:

Except the 4 can possibly mislead your partner on the defense of the hand (and not just at trick 1) and can cost you tricks that a double dummy simulation wouldn't pick up.

Completely agreed; I'm big on not misleading/confusing partner.

[Phil]

bluecalm, on 2011-June-12, 11:44, said:

Some stuff like 9-14hcp for overcaller and 6-9 for responder, partner having 5hearts with 11-15 range but not 5-5 or 6-4 if 14+. something like that Ican't remember exactly. It doesn't matter much, I often played with various assumptions for such problems and results doesn't vary too much as long as they are sensible.

I doubt partners / overcaller's strength matters much, especially at MPs, assuming we are in the field spot and everyone has bid rationally.

How many trump dummy is expected to have greatly matters I think and I would think three spades is hitting the table a lot.

(Yes I'm trying to measure the effectiveness of a trump lead in case you are wondering).

[bluecalm]

I usually make assumptions like 6-9hcp and not more than 10total points which are defined as pc + distributional points which in turn are defined differently for every situation, here I used 1 for 2 for stiff, 3 for void and 1 for 4th trump or something similar.
I don't think people are jumping to 3 level with 4 trumps as often as they do after an opening (no bergen etc.) so it should be about right.

[Phil]

bluecalm, on 2011-June-12, 13:41, said:

I don't think people are jumping to 3 level with 4 trumps as often as they do after an opening (no bergen etc.) so it should be about right.

I think you underestimate this. Mixed raises of overcalls (via a jump cue) are practically standard among good players, and I would expect this call to be made frequently w/r.

[matmat]

Phil, on 2011-June-12, 13:53, said:

practically standard among good players

Thread Title said:

weak club game

fyp.

[mtvesuvius]

I lead my partner's suit, wtp?

[JLOGIC]

Any non jack of hearts lead is too advanced for me. I hope to set up heart tricks, get a ruff/trump promotion, whatever. A trump is far too passive, it picks up any trump holding, and lets them get either minor going for pitches if they so desire. It also eliminates my chance of a ruff, or partners chance of a ruff if he would have been able to get a club ruff on a heart lead.