[marmot101]

North:
SAKxx Hxx DK109x CQxx

South:
Sxx HAKQxxx DA8x CA6

Question:

should N-S bid 6H with this hand? If bid, what's a good bidding sequence?

I am not satifisfied with mine (south)

N        S
1D      1H
1S       2C (4th suit force)
2NT    3H
3NT    -

Thanks for your help!

[the hog]

6H would not be the worst slam you ever reached, but its not that great either. On a C lead, you had better hope that the K of C is right for you.
I dislike your auction - no doubt this will be a controversial comment, but I have an unswerving philosophy that balanced hands should be treated as balanced hands. You have a balanced hand and this should be bid as such. Your sequence to me shows long Ds and 4S - definitely not a 4243 shape. If you bid this way, how can you distinguish between the 2 totally different hand types? I would rebid 1NT with the Nth hand over 1H. Now Sth can use whatever checkback methods are available.

My preferred bidding, however would be
1D   2H
2NT 3H
3S   4C
4H   P
where 2H is a strong jump shift. 2NT shows a 12-14 bal hand, 3H shows better than min, excellent H, 3S and 4C are cues.
This is probably not available to you, but note how much less convoluted the jump shift is rather than having to gp through 4sf.

Without a strong jump shift, the hand could be bid as following:
1D   1H
1NT  2D*  GF checkback
2S   3H
3NT 4H
P
2S shows 4S, denies 3H, 3H  followed by 4H is a mild slam try in H

You will note that this is only an acceptable slam because you have the T and 9 of Ds. Hopefully if one of the honors fall then you can pitch a losing C; provided of course that you didn't get the C lead. Not great odds.
To this date I do not know of any system which can diagnose your possession of these 2 cards.

[inquiry]

Hi,

First point, raised by The_Hog is why not a jump to 2H over 1D?  I think the lack of 2H suggest that you play this as weak.

Second point, I disagree with the comment that slam is going to be all that bad. On a non-club lead, all you need is Q or J with Left hand opponent (hook, and hook again) ... assuming of course that you have no heart loser. And of course, 6NT from north is even better, as a club or diamond lead gives you your 12th trick right away.

On a club opening lead, you have to decide who you think has the club king. If you think it is EAST, you play low from both hands. Now you try for a squeeze with lots of threat suits. The diamond threat is the DIAMOND EIGHT in your hand.

Now then, to the bidding.

1D-2H   (soloway jump shift)
2N-3H   (sets trumps)
3S-4C
4D- <<<====  here I disagree with The_hog. I would show my diamond control, and if South rebids 4H (soloway JS showed solid suit, I would show my second spade control. Slam is then more or less bid on momentum.

Now I assume you don't use Soloway jump shifts. So The_Hog's auction is about right, rather or not you rebid 1NT or 2S.  Since he covered 1N rebid, let's start with 1S rebid

1D-1H
1S-2C         2c = 4th suit force
2N-3H         2N = min, with "c" stopper; 3H = force
3S-4C        
4D-4H
Pass
       

[marmot101]

Thanks for you two's reply!  

The answer is quite clear and logical.

1. Just after learning 4sf & nmf, you understand that they will spring out of my mind as first thing!  :-[

  I do play 2H jump shift, but not Soloway jumpshift.

2. I ask whether this hand worths bidding slam because --
  I think it is quite a marginal one. But the fact is: at BBO, 6 out of 10 tables go to 6H, another one 6NT, which makes me can't help doubting myself: am I too conservative in bidding?!

Best Regards,

marmot101

[the hog]

Not really; I am not sure whether Inquiry didn't read all I wrote or misunderstood some of it. I didn't say it was a really poor slam, just not a good one. I did say its not the worst one I have ever been in, but I personally would not be too fussed about missing it. Ben's arguments also assume that trumps are breaking 3-2. Doesn't always happen for me and a 4-1 break gives you no chance at all. I haven't worked out the odds, but I'd be surprised if this is more than 50%.

Another consideration is the form of the game. At matchpoints I'd be even more loth to bid it as being in 4 and making 6 will get you some matchpoints, but 6 1 off won't get you many at all.

One final point to Ben; on a non C lead I think you will find that with the given D holding the best line is A K and another D. That gives you a pitch if they are 3-3 or if Q or J drops singleton or doubleton - combined chances are slightly higher than the double hook.

[Codo]

Hi Marmot,

I guess it is easy to miss the slam. I play weak jump shifts, so my bidding had been exactly like yours till 2 NT.
Then I may had thought about direct 4 Heart but made one more try with 3 Heart.
In my bidding understanding 2 NT shows mostly a doubleton Heart, so after 3 Heart, which shows 6 with a game forcing hand and slam interesst, I had to bid 3 Spade with the north hand. No real second choice.
South will bid 4 club showing club control but denying more extra stregth then his "little" slam interesst.
Now I have to judge my North hand again: No perfect fit, just 12 HCPs are no good news.
two quick tricks and control in all suits are the good news. I am not sure, whether  I would bid 4 Heart or 4 NT here.
With the first bid, I would miss the slam, with the second I would reach it and maybe even 6 NT, because I could not see many hands, where 6 Heart is better.

There is no need to bid this slam. You need trumps 3-2 and the about 76 % chance in Diamond and a non club lead, or you need some other miracles, f.e. a club lead from the Kxxx or QJ of diamond sec...
Should be less then 50 %.

Kind Regards

Roland

[inquiry]

Quote

Not really; I am not sure whether Inquiry didn't read all I wrote or misunderstood some of it. I didn't say it was a really poor slam, just not a good one. I did say its not the worst one I have ever been in, but I personally would not be too fussed about missing it. Ben's arguments also assume that trumps are breaking 3-2. Doesn't always happen for me and a 4-1 break gives you no chance at all. I haven't worked out the odds, but I'd be surprised if this is more than 50%.

Another consideration is the form of the game. At matchpoints I'd be even more loth to bid it as being in 4 and making 6 will get you some matchpoints, but 6 1 off won't get you many at all.

One final point to Ben; on a non C lead I think you will find that with the given D holding the best line is A K and another D. That gives you a pitch if they are 3-3 or if Q or J drops singleton or doubleton - combined chances are slightly higher than the double hook.

You are right. I did read it too quickly, what I remember was "you had better hope the Club King was right for you" missing the part of the statement about a club lead. So I thought you were advocating playing a club towards the Queen. But again, even on a club lead, you still have chances if the Club King is off-side and you correctly guess that by ducking in both hands. 6NT by north is a better contract, as I pointed out.

You also noted now in addendum that either slam (6H or 6NT) would require hearts to split, and yes I agree, as I said such a split was necessary. We all know that a 3-2 splits occur only 67.826% of the time when we are declearer, but 100% of time when our opponents bid shaky slams. So the slam is clearly much less than 67%  (Club lead problem, both Diamond honors maybe poorly placed, etc.).

Now as for which line is superior in diamond (double hook, cash two top and duck on, or cash one then hook twice), I didn't go into it, as I was just addressing what I thought was a mistatement in your veiw on how to play the hand. In my view you had overlooked the use of the diamond suit in what you were advocating, which I incorrectly thought was low towards the club Queen. However since you brought it up, the best line is cash one then hook twice, which is slightly superior to the shorthand I used in the original post to simply hook twice. Your statement that the superior line is to cash AK then duck one playing for 3-3 or doubleton honor is significantly inferior to the other two diamond lines.

No line diamond line works when east has QJxx QJxxx or QJxxxx of diamonds (although if East has all six, you find out in time to try for a squeeze play, perhaps a crisscross).

Your line of cashing two top diamonds and then duck one beats the hook twice line when EAST holds specifically QJx (7.1%) or QJ (1.6%) doubleton. Cashing one honor before hooking caters to the QJ doubleton with RHO, so does not lose that 1.6% to cashing both honors). However, double hook (with or without cashing one top honor wins anytime West holds QJxx (9.7%) or QJxxx  (4.8%) (if West had all 6 D cash one shows you this so you can revert the cash two and duck). So, mathematically, the hook twice is gains 9.7+4.8 over cash two and duck but loses in two cases 7.1% and 1.6% for a net improvement of 5.8%. Cash one then hook twice is even better by the 1.6% chance of East having QJ doubleton of diamonds. So the odds of the three lnes (in total) are:

Cash two top diamonds, duck one = 70.2%
Hook diamonds twice = 76%
Cash one diamond, then hook twice = 77.6%

Of course, after losing the first diamond hook, you still have squeeze possibilities should enough information arise to make use of it. But if you cash two diamonds and then exit one, the hand winning the Queen (if still has the jack) will immediately wipe out your diamond threat by returning one.

So yes, I agree with you that this isn't the worst slam ever, nor is it a great slam. Would I want to be in slam? Yes, 6NT by north. How would I play Diamonds? Diamond Ace and low hook, planning intially (unless something else show up), to hook again.