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Say you got to 6♣ with no interference from the oppoenents in the bidding:
♠K8742
♥A842
♦K6
♣A9
♠3
♥K96
♦AJ
♣KQT8654
Let's say they lead the ♥J (even though dummy mentioned the suit). Let's say it's not a singleton, though that may spoil the fun. What is the best route to 12 tricks:
a. Duck a spade and trump two of them, expecting to win when the spade Ace is singleton, doubleton or tripleton.
b. Play a spade to the K and if it loses try to set up spades using the club finesse (small to the 9) as an additional entry.
c. Something else?
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6 Clubs What's the best line?
#1
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Posted 2011-May-12, 14:46
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#2
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2011-May-12, 16:24
Line A works when ♠A is singleton, doubleton or trebleton, which is
(1/7 * 7 + 2/7 * 30 + 3/7 * 62) = 36%
Line B works when LHO has ♠K, plus half of the time that spades are 4-3 with ♠K offside, and gets a bit more for accidentally picking up 4=0 trumps
Since the finesse is 50%, it's clearly better.
If Line A allowed you to pick up ♠Axxx, I think it would be slightly better.
(1/7 * 7 + 2/7 * 30 + 3/7 * 62) = 36%
Line B works when LHO has ♠K, plus half of the time that spades are 4-3 with ♠K offside, and gets a bit more for accidentally picking up 4=0 trumps
Since the finesse is 50%, it's clearly better.
If Line A allowed you to pick up ♠Axxx, I think it would be slightly better.
This post has been edited by gnasher: 2011-May-12, 16:31
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#3
- World International Master without a clue
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Posted 2011-May-12, 16:44
spade to the king also gives you squeeze chances when hearts are 5-1. But a spade ducked gives them an inmediate ruff
#4
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Posted 2011-May-12, 18:01
Supposing you win the J♥ in hand, what does RHO play? Obviously the J can't be from 6 cards otherwise your most likely down on the lead.
The odds would be to eliminate at least one club and not even consider finessing to the 9♣- someone want to confirm that. 5-1 break in hearts isn't that unlikely- if its 5-1 then chances are that you'll pick up the Q♥ and decide to finesses in hearts. This discounts the unlikely lead of Jxxx without the 10 and RHO dropping the Q to confuse things.
If you pick up the Q, you certainly have to eliminate all defence's trumps.
The odds would be to eliminate at least one club and not even consider finessing to the 9♣- someone want to confirm that. 5-1 break in hearts isn't that unlikely- if its 5-1 then chances are that you'll pick up the Q♥ and decide to finesses in hearts. This discounts the unlikely lead of Jxxx without the 10 and RHO dropping the Q to confuse things.
If you pick up the Q, you certainly have to eliminate all defence's trumps.
#5
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Posted 2011-May-12, 18:10
line b for me
#6
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Posted 2011-May-16, 22:13
i dont think its easy for west to play low when i play low to king at trick 2. Does my bidding show a S control or a H fragment ?
If its a pure math problem low to K win, but IRL its a different story. 1 - the lead is fishy 2- West going to hop a fair amount etc
If its a pure math problem low to K win, but IRL its a different story. 1 - the lead is fishy 2- West going to hop a fair amount etc
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#7
- Under bidder
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Posted 2011-May-21, 00:21
Play the spade first, then think.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
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