gnasher, on 2011-March-31, 03:06, said:
I'm torn between 3♥x-4 and 4♥x-5. The rules require East to raise hearts, but I'm not sure whether 4♥ is a logical alternative.
Edit: on reflection, getting all of those tricks requires quite good defence, so we should give declarer six tricks some of the time.
I am quite happy to allow E/W to play in 3
♥x and I think you should have written "on reflection, we should give declarer only four tricks most of the time, as the defence to beat it five is pretty trivial". Perhaps the triplicate entry was caused by repeated reflection?
North will surely lead a trump, as he knows East does not have a Michaels Cue Bid (the director assumes MI rather than misbid, as the CC is essentially silent on a defence to a precision diamond). Now declarer can force South to defend well by putting in the king (when South must duck) but he will normally play low and South should win and play a second heart to cut down on ruffs. West does best to lead a diamond up, and North should win to play a spade through. South can win and push a medium club through, and then the defence exits with a trump and declarer is five off.
Given that the event is multiple teams - possibly scored with two comparisons - the weighted score if there is one could be quite important, and I think that 80% of 3HX - 5 and 20% of 3Hx - 4 is about right. We are supposed to give the benefit of the doubt to the non-offenders and your "six tricks" forces them to defend misère.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar