[gwnn]

kgr, click on the GIB button of your own diagram. only a diamond or a small heart lets it through.

[kgr]

gwnn, on 2011-March-08, 02:15, said:

kgr, click on the GIB button of your own diagram. only a diamond or a small heart lets it through.

yes, right (I didn't really verify for a Club because it didn't feel like a good lead )

[Free]

If that's your partner's argument, I'd say he could've just doubled for a ♠ lead...

[whereagles]

kgr, on 2011-March-07, 15:05, said:

I did lead a small ♦. My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

As you can see from the comments by experienced players, it's pretty obvious NOT to lead a major

Like everybody else, I'd blow a trick with my small diamond lead.

[bluecalm]

My simulation tells me that:

A♠ = 384
3♠ = 339
A♥ = 369
5♥ = 343
J♦ = 375
T♣ = 401

(times the lead defeats 3NT on 1k hand sample)

So I am leading a club next time I am dealt this hand.
This is the second time lately when I would expect major suit lead to be a winner but it isn't. Last time it was Kxx holdings now Axx.
If we substitute our Axx of spades to 8xx then the results would be:

♠ - 388
A♥ - 326
5♥ - 315
J♦ - 294
x♦ - 309
T♣ - 351

It seems that underleading Hxx sucks even double dummy. Obviously it's even worse in practical play.

EDIT:
For Q43 A85 JT43 T94 the results are:

3♠ - 205
A♥ - 253
5[hearts= - 249
J♦ - 238
4♦ - 251
T♣ - 285

and for the same hand with Jxx of spades:

x♠ - 327
A♥ - 299
x♦ - 295
T♣ - 325

and the last one for Txx of spades:

3♠ - 396
A♥ - 363
5♥ - 350
3♦ - 352
T♣ - 399

The trend is clear: if there safe major suit lead available it's the best. If not, clubs > diamonds.
I have found that 1k hand sample still have some variance but is quite reliable (by that I mean that if the difference is 25+ hands it's rarely due to luck).

[jogs]

kgr, on 2011-March-07, 15:05, said:

---

I did lead a small ♦. My partner said that a Major lead was obvious after this bidding, but I thought leading my longest suit was better with 2 entries.

They didn't stayman. A major is right quite often. 50/50 guess between spades and hearts.

You shouldn't have posted the results so quickly.

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2011-March-08, 04:49, said:

My simulation tells me that:

A♠ = 384
3♠ = 339
A♥ = 369
5♥ = 343
J♦ = 375
T♣ = 401

(times the lead defeats 3NT on 1k hand sample)

So I am leading a club next time I am dealt this hand.

Your simulation says that leading ♠A is 15 points better than leading ♥A. Common sense says that it can't be better to lead an ace from A43 than from A85. That suggests that a difference of 15 isn't large enough for us to draw any conclusions. Given that, I don't see why you think that the difference of 17 between a club and ♠A is significant.

[bluecalm]

Quote

Your simulation says that leading ♠A is 15 points better than leading ♥A. Common sense says that it can't be better to lead an ace from A43 than from A85. That suggests that a difference of 15 isn't large enough for us to draw any conclusions. Given that, I don't see why you think that the difference of 17 between a club and ♠A is significant.

I took average for Axx and the difference is quite big.
Lead from A8x is probably in fact worse though (cause 8 could be a trick). I will run it on bigger sample out of curiosity.
In my opinion those A leads only works double dummy though as in real life it could be difficult to switch in time to other suit which double dummy player always does.

[sathyab]

kgr, on 2011-March-08, 02:11, said:

Everybody wrong, only a spade will defeat it?

Or ♥ Ace and ♠ switch.

[gwnn]

sathyab, on 2011-March-08, 14:04, said:

Or ♥ Ace and ♠ switch.

or ♣.