[wyman]

Opps are strong. r/w IMPs, Let's say it's the 4th board of an 8 board match; no huge swings so far.

---

6♣ looks to be the spot; if p has AKxxxxx, we might make a grand. I considered 4D enroute to 5C enroute to 6C, hopefully creating a force for the opps in the process and hopefully lessening the chance that they sac in 6S (and heightening the chance that they smash 6C), and I considered 6C directly. I dismissed 5C directly for fear that it'd float.

Thoughts?

[ArtK78]

At this vul, your opps are going to bid one more no matter what level you go to. So, your best option is to try to confuse the matter as much as possible. Passing here may do the trick.

Another option is to bid 4 of a red suit, hoping to create a diversion. But I think that pass is best.

The question is what to do if 4♠ comes back to you. I believe that if you have the guts to just bid 5♣ you will hear the opponents bid one more in spades. Then you can bid 6♣ and hope to play it there (possibly doubled?).

[Free]

Why can't we just bid 4♠ showing a strong hand with support?

[karlson]

"Does 4♣ create a forcing pass?"
"Not if you ask."

[wyman]

karlson, on 2011-February-09, 09:34, said:

"Does 4♣ create a forcing pass?"
"Not if you ask."

lol

[aguahombre]

With my luck I would be defending 4C undoubled by East. See rulings on brain freezes vs. unintended calls.

Comparing with teammates: push (6SX) ---NEXT.

This post has been edited by aguahombre: 2011-February-09, 11:19

[pooltuna]

ArtK78, on 2011-February-09, 09:30, said:

At this vul, your opps are going to bid one more no matter what level you go to. So, your best option is to try to confuse the matter as much as possible. Passing here may do the trick.

Another option is to bid 4 of a red suit, hoping to create a diversion. But I think that pass is best.

The question is what to do if 4♠ comes back to you. I believe that if you have the guts to just bid 5♣ you will hear the opponents bid one more in spades. Then you can bid 6♣ and hope to play it there (possibly doubled?).

right after Art's pass the second choice is IMO a direct 7♣ as it looks cold if partner has 3♦ and 7♣. Those and 3 major suit winners = 13. So you foist the last guess on them when they can't tell if you are trying to jack them up to the 7 level.

[phil_20686]

I would bid 6C now, and 7C over 6S I think. I think it will be a win if I can play in clubs at any level, as it is not that unlikely that 6S is cheap against game.

[mtvesuvius]

I'm really really tempted by 7♣. Neither opponent will have any idea what's going on, and on a hand like this, I'd like to give them the last guess. My second choice would be pass followed by 6♣. I think I'd go for 7♣ though.

[wyman]

pooltuna, on 2011-February-09, 11:27, said:

right after Art's pass the second choice is IMO a direct 7♣ as it looks cold if partner has 3♦ and 7♣. Those and 3 major suit winners = 13. So you foist the last guess on them when they can't tell if you are trying to jack them up to the 7 level.

His 7 clubs must include the ace.
/statingtheobviousbutnotnecessarilywhatwillhappeninpractice

[cherdano]

wyman, on 2011-February-09, 12:27, said:

His 7 clubs must include the ace.
/statingtheobviousbutnotnecessarilywhatwillhappeninpractice

I have been in worse than 87.5% grand slams.

[wyman]

cherdano, on 2011-February-09, 13:04, said:

I have been in worse than 87.5% grand slams.

Heh, if I thought it was legitimately 87.5% that my partner held the club ace, I may have bid 7 also, especially since they may phantom sac. But partner's allowed to hold KJ10xxxx here, especially with what may well be a spade void. Not to mention, if he has AKxxxxx of clubs and anything outside (not crazy if this hand is being bid on shape from all 4 seats), he has to choose between 2C and 3/4 clubs. I'm certainly not saying he can't have the ace, just that I don't think he holds it enough to make it worth guessing to bid 7♣ (and virtually guaranteeing a X on this auction) versus a possible 6cx (= or +1) if I can get there.

edit: and the 'getting there' was why I made the thread in the first place. At the table, I punted 6♣ and got smashed. Afterwards, opp lamented something about trusting his vulnerable opponents...

[cherdano]

Partner has 7 of the 8 outstanding clubs. Sounds like 87.5% that he has the ace, in first approximation!

[wyman]

cherdano, on 2011-February-09, 13:26, said:

Partner has 7 of the 8 outstanding clubs. Sounds like 87.5% that he has the ace, in first approximation!

I understood where the number came from. I was saying that on many of those hands, he may make a call other than 3C. Actually, he probably can't have enough to call 2C, so maybe my argument is bunk (however, I stand by the < 87% claim). Here's why:

I have 13 HCP. Opener has at least 11 or so. Responder has a good 9 or 10+ (note that opps have at most 9 spades between them, so someone's bidding on values here). So even if everyone at the table is minimum, partner still "can't" hold the AKJ of clubs. So if you want to make an argument about a missing club, it's almost surely an honor, which -- to first approximation -- would make the grand about 67%.

[gszeszycki]

BID 4D!!!!!!!

We intend to bid at least 6c anyway and since we have no logical way to differentiate
btn p having the KJTxxxx and AJTxxxx bidding more than 6c is las vegas.

Bidding 4d here lets p know how to defend if opps go to 6s/7s. Always make bids that help
partner when able. If your p passes thinking its natural get a new partner.

[mtvesuvius]

gszeszycki, on 2011-February-09, 17:49, said:

Bidding 4d here lets p know how to defend if opps go to 6s/7s. Always make bids that help
partner when able. If your p passes thinking its natural get a new partner.

Don't worry, partner will just raise to six.

[wyman]

mtvesuvius, on 2011-February-09, 17:52, said:

Don't worry, partner will just raise to six.

At least 7♣ is 87.5%...

[the hog]

Free, on 2011-February-09, 09:40, said:

Why can't we just bid 4♠ showing a strong hand with support?

I agree with this. I am always bemused by those who try to "walk the dog". These tactics only work against weak players. I would push for 7C after my 4S bid.

[mtvesuvius]

wyman, on 2011-February-09, 17:53, said:

At least 7♣ is 87.5%...

I'm not claiming 7♣ is clearly right, but I think 4♦ is going a bit too far. Anyway, this is a good problem Brian... I do agree that partner doesn't *have* to have the ♣A, but R/W I think they rate to have it extremely often. Even if we are off the ♣A, if opener doesn't have it they still have a guess. Perhaps with unforgiving partner(s), it may be best not to punt 7♣ and take the low road.

[Echognome]

I must be missing something, so please tell me where this logic is wrong. Even if partner has ♣AKxxxxx, don't we need him to have at least 3 diamonds in order to make grand?

As an example, if partner has:

♠x
♥xxx
♦xx
♣AKxxxxx

Now we can ruff two diamonds in dummy and we still have a heart loser. I don't see any likely squeeze combinations. I understand that it's likelier that partner has 3+ diamonds given that it's our void and that opponents have shown 8-9 spades. I guess if we feel absolutely sure that partner has a spade void, then the only shape we worry about is 0=4=2=7 and we would still make if he had the ♥Q or the ♥J with the Q falling.

I guess we would have to put odds on 1=3=2=7 and 0=4=2=7 versus the rest of the shapes. I don't know how much that would trim our initial estimate of 87.5%, but it should knock it down a little bit.