[nigel_k]

It's really a two part question: where do we want to be and what is the best way to get there?

I want to be in 6♣. The a priori likelihood of making 13 tricks is only part of the answer because when 7♣ fails you will play there and when it doesn't they will often sacrifice for no more than the value of your small slam. Anyway I think the 87.5% is wishful thinking since partner could be 1327, 0427, 0436 or 0346 and maybe even 1336, in addition to the hands where we are off the ace of clubs.

As for how to get there, I think you have to vary your tactics in these situations. Sometimes jump to 6♣, sometimes use Blackwood, sometimes cue bid. I quite like Blackwood here because they are more likely to value the ♦A and because so many people bid Blackwood on bad hands as a fake show of strength. The fact that they 'know' you could never stop in five after Blackwood and were never going to bid seven anyway (because they have an ace and your partner showed two key cards) tends to support this.

[Vampyr]

cherdano, on 2011-February-09, 13:26, said:

Partner has 7 of the 8 outstanding clubs. Sounds like 87.5% that he has the ace, in first approximation!

My partners never have 7.

[mcphee]

I would like to take the maximum number of tricks should they happen to save against my slam. Therefore I like bidding 4D. If dear partner ever happened to raise D I would mark my chances in 7C a lot higher than the quoted 87.5%

Partner has good C, there is no room for him to have anything else. We do know he does not have the death wish shape of 2-2-2-7 given this cue bid. They may even be void in S which will increase the chances to hold 3H, but at least allows us to dump one on the S ace. It seems to me that my lho has opened on a distributional pointed suit hand.

I believe it is reasonable to go the distance, 7C could very well be a wrap and even though I will never be sure, I am more than willing to take this risk. If he does not have 7 C we are going to need to have a discussion.

[pooltuna]

As everyone seems to keep forgetting the conditions (V vs NV; yes YOU are V & you are playing IMPS) I assume they personally know your partner. Consequently, since I don't, would you please confirm his lack of sanity so I can understand the bad preemptive 3♣ hands so many seem to know he is likely to hold.

[wyman]

mtvesuvius, on 2011-February-09, 18:00, said:

I'm not claiming 7♣ is clearly right, but I think 4♦ is going a bit too far.

I wasn't crucifying 7♣; I don't think it's that bad. Sarcasm and, in particular, tone have a way of manifesting themselves in strange ways on the internet. Your response to someone's 4♦ bid was something about partner possibly raising to 6, and I was just pointing out that worst case, we can still bid 7♣ which is not where we want to be, but it has chances. I was poking fun (benignly, ftr) at cherdano's 87.5% estimate in passing.

Sorry if you took this the wrong way. Partner raising to 6♦ is an outside chance, but on this auction, it's unlikely P will have a 6-level decision. He already preempted; no need to preempt again over the very likely 4♠ from lefty. Everyone's minimum here. Besides, partner knows that sometimes I need to make a lead-director here. Raising is fine, of course, but I think jumping is a little nuts. And when I bid 6♣ over 5♦ (5♠) or 5♦ (p), now opps have to figure out what's going on. Did we just get too high? Are we in a force? Was his 4♦ bid serious? Etc.

Quote

Anyway, this is a good problem Brian... I do agree that partner doesn't *have* to have the ♣A, but R/W I think they rate to have it extremely often. Even if we are off the ♣A, if opener doesn't have it they still have a guess. Perhaps with unforgiving partner(s), it may be best not to punt 7♣ and take the low road.

We (both juniors, in which I'll lump myself despite my being slightly (and ever-increasingly) age handicapped, and "adv+" in which I'll lump myself despite the mass of evidence to the contrary) generally have a lighter/more aggressive preempting style, colors notwithstanding. My thoughts on this were:
(a) 3♣ might not be bid at the other table, so this might be a routine 4♠ over there, and 7♣-1 might be a disaster whereas 6♣+1 might not. e.g., AJ10xxx and out (+4 diamonds + 1/1 clubs) might not preempt at the other table, and partner might. Some people are "don't preempt with a void" people or "vul you need 2 of the top 3" or .... ; certainly the same goes for KJ10xxx(x), which some may find too ratty to preempt, but here we only make 6
( b )Assume the auction did start (1♠) 3♣ at the other table. People are generally bad at bidding grands, especially in competition. Again, here, this means missing the grand is less costly when it works. Bidding it and going down is a disaster.

With this in mind, I was firm in my resolve to play 6-and only 6-clubs (hopefully doubled!), but I didn't know whether the "right" approach here was to punt (as I did, but I think vulnerable this way increases the chances of defending 6♠x and never getting a diamond ruff) or to do something else (e.g., 4♦, which has its obvious flaws but also has some redeeming qualities).

I think this is a good problem as well, and thanks to all for the input.

[wyman]

pooltuna, on 2011-February-10, 09:24, said:

As everyone seems to keep forgetting the conditions (V vs NV; yes YOU are V & you are playing IMPS) I assume they personally know your partner. Consequently, since I don't, would you please confirm his lack of sanity so I can understand the bad preemptive 3♣ hands so many seem to know he is likely to hold.

confirmed insane.

more sane than I am, though, probably.

But seriously, he has at worst probably: x / Hxx / xxx / KJ10xxxx or equivalent

[cherdano]

4♦ is a very reasonable bid, but I am not sure it is really necessary to direct a diamond lead. The hand may play very badly for declarer on a club force at trick one.

Partner is red/white and has little values, so I don't think he can have 6 clubs. Of course, that might be different for your partner.

[wyman]

cherdano, on 2011-February-10, 09:29, said:

4♦ is a very reasonable bid, but I am not sure it is really necessary to direct a diamond lead. The hand may play very badly for declarer on a club force at trick one.

Partner is red/white and has little values, so I don't think he can have 6 clubs. Of course, that might be different for your partner.

I'm not sure whether he'd preempt with -- / Hxx / xxxx / AJ10xxx. Hell, I'm not sure if I would.