Posted 2011-February-07, 11:27
The auction looks fine to me up until the last bid, when its clear to bid 3N. Partner has shown invitational values and denied 3s (other wise he would bid 3s over 2s), so 3s shows a doubleton with desire to play in 4S opposite 6-4, but with a terrible suit and only 5-4 shape wests 4!s bid is absurd.
East could also have bid 3h rather than 3s as he would quite fancy a shot at 4h opposite Hx. Again, opener has denied 3h by not raising, and responder would rebid 3h again with a good 6 card suit and invitational values, so its strongly suggested that he is looking for Hx support. But his hand looks ok for 3N too, so its not an error really, just a judgement.
Pretty sure if you told us what their leads are we could work out the club suit. If i think the k!c is likely on my right then I will cash ace and another spade pitching one heart and planning to pitch a diamond if they play a 4th spade. If they have a 4th spade then I will need the heart finesse, and must hope to lose only 1 diamond and one spade. However, if the spades are 4-2 pretty sure I am insta off, as an opponent can lead the K of diamonds, then I will need Kxh or Kxxh in the slot, and if that was the case pretty sure rho would have switched to a diamond after the spade was won almost regardless of that holding. Indeed, this defence pretty much only makes sense if rho has both red kings. If i thought that rho was a good player, then I might gear my play towards this eventuality.
However, my experience of county matches in England is that lho has probably certainly led from a doubleton club. It seems absurd for RHO to continue clubs with k fifth given that rho with AQ6 would certainly play the j!c at trick one. Your failure to try to ruff a diamond before playing trumps tells rho that you dont have the k!d, and must be planing to discard diamonds on hearts, so he would switch to a diamond before that can happen unless he held the k!d. Further, rho is almost certainly holding 2 or 3 spades, and cannot know that you have bid badly on a 5 card suit, so he must think you have no chance to develop a tenth trick without giving him something to cash, so again it points to him having both red suit kings. If he has k!h and 3 spade tricks it still must be right to play a diamond and attack the entries for extra tricks. Planing to duck the kh on the first round and then cut you off from dummy. I suspect your only real chance is to play for rho to have 3-2-3-5 shape then ace and another spade pitching one heart looks quite likely to endplay him, and he will have to exit with a k c and i will ruff. Now I can table J!h and if rho wins he is basically triply endplayed. Now I can pitch one diamond on a club and two on hearts, and its too late for him to play a diamond.
If I follow rhm's line and pitch a club Rho will have safe club exits and so will just exit with a diamond when he wins the third round of spades to kill the entry to the long hearts and when he wins the second round of hearts he can exit with a safe club. If the spades are 4-2 then it was a major error for them not to manage to play on diamonds from the right side. SO rhm will go off with the spades 3-3 if the kh is offside. I think the oppos have misdefended if the kh is onside, so I will keep my clubs on the first spade pitch.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper