[bluecalm]

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1♦ promies 5 (unless 4-4-4-1, or 5C-4D);

Lead: 4♥ (2/4, UDCA):

trick 1: 4♥ 2♥ 6♥ A♥
trick 2: 3♠ 4♠ T♠ Q♠

Your move.
I think it's difficult
(I played it online today and completely butchered btw)

[jschafer]

I found this was a neat hand for trying to figure out what everyone has (even if I got it wrong). I assumed IMP scoring. Analysis hidden because it is quite long.

Spoiler

Partner has 2♠
Partner gave even count in ♠s so he has 1, 2 or 4 of them. 4 seems unlikely given declarer's play in the suit (with 4-5♣ why try set up the ♠ winner?). P might well have acted over 1♥ if he did have 4♠ (eg. with 4-1-5-3). A singleton ♠ gives partner too many cards in the minors to pass over 1♥ (he would usualy lead his singleton ♠ anyway). It seems almost certain that partner has 2♠ if he gave correct count (thank you declarer for not hiding the ♠3).

Partner has 4-5♦
He did not lead a ♦ nor bid 2♦s. If partner does have 6♦s he would probably have led one if he doesn't have the Ace. If he does have the Ace his ♦ suit seems to be at least ATJ9xx (only one we can't see), which seems good enough for a 2♦ bid. So it therefore seems likely partner has 2-2-5-4, 2-2-4-5 or 2-3-5-3 (he would have bid over 1♥ with more shape than this).

Declarer seems to have about 15 hcps
There are 26 points divided between partner and declarer, given the bidding they are likely to split around 15-11 (possibly 16-10). With 14-12 declarer would need a lot of shape to bid 4♥. If that was the case partner needs a lot of shape too and he would have bid over 1♥. With 10 hcps partner would need 10 cards in the minors to open, so he would usually have bid over 1♥. It would also give declarer a 16-count with a singleton ♣, in which case it doesn't look like we can beat this hand anyway. Playing partner for an minimal opening hand with 11 hcps and at most 54 in the minors seems consistent with the auction.

Declarer has AKQxx(x)♥
It looks like declarer has at 5-6♥s headed by the AKQ given that he won the first trick with the Ace (useful info, thx opp). He also needs a couple more honours for his raise to 4♥. These cards could include the K♠, A♣ and Q♣, J♣, A♦, Q♦, J♦. Declarer's hand is starting to look like:

♠Kxx/xxx
♥AKQxx(x)
♦??(?)
♣?(??)

Where are we getting 3 more tricks from? Declarer must have 2+♣s to beat it
There won't be any more tricks in the majors for us so the minors seems like the only chance of this contract going down. One fairly likely trick seems to be the ♦A, which seems like a plausible reason as to why partner did not lead the suit he has 4 (and probably 5) cards in. If declarer has a singleton ♣ he must be 3-6-3-1 and won't be losing more than 2 tricks in the minors anyway. His hands would have to be hands like:

♠Kxx ♥AKQxxx ♦Jxx ♣Q
♠Kxx ♥AKQxxx ♦Qxx ♣J
♠Kxx ♥AKQxxx ♦QJx ♣x
♠xxx ♥AKQxxx ♦QJx ♣Q

So let us play declarer for at least 2♣s, his possible shapes being: 3-5-2-3 and 3-6-2-2. If partner has the ♣A either minor will defeat the contract now (2♣ and a ♦).

What if partner doesn't have the ♣A?
That would give declarer AKQ♥ and A♣ meaning that if he has the 3-6-2-2 shape he has 10 tricks with the ♠ hook and K♦. So we're looking at a 2-5-2-3 shape with the ♣A (so he can't have K♠ too):

♠xxx
♥AKQxx
♦??
♣A??

With the Q♣ declarer is home and with the Q♦ partner would have presumably led a ♣ from:
♠Kx
♥xxx
♦AJxxx
♣QJx

This leaves declarer with:
♠xxx
♥AKQxx
♦Jx
♣AJx

On that layout partner has the K♠ and declarer won't be able to set up a 4th ♠ for a ♣ discard. A ♣ return by us now will give declarer his contract. It is the only layout I can come up with where it matters what we do (ie. ♣ or ♦). I think I will return the ♦6 or whatever card you would return systematically to say you have stuff in ♣s. Then partner should be able to work out you have at most the K in ♣s because you showed the Q♠ and passed his opening bid. Hopefully if this is the layout he will know not to return a ♣ from Q9x.

This seems like an extremely unlikely scenario though and I would be in awe if any partnership finds it in a timely fashion if this happens to be the layout.

[dake50]

I'd guess you lost club tricks to set.
S:AJ for what discard? Clubs. And now.

[gnasher]

Why didn't I bid something? And why didn't partner play his ♠K?

[inquiry]

Your partner will not be 4441 because you have 2 hearts. So partner has at least 5 diamonds. It is unlikely that partner lead a singleton trump, so he has two or three hearts.

What is happening? If declarer was missing K or Q of hearts he would have played the jack or ten from dummy, unless perhaps he has the nine. But the fact that he won the ACE means he has the AKQ of hearts, for sure. So we get no heart tricks.

We will win one only spade, as declarer will finesse that suit again -- if needed. We will get at most one diamond trick (partner with minimum of five gives East only two at most and the king is well placed), So we need two club tricks or three tricks in clubs -- depending on who has the diamond ace. Can we reconstruct the hands? Partner appears to have spade king doubleton or tripleton, no heart honor. For his opening bid, he has to have at least one of the minor suit ACEs. If he has both, you will surely beat this hand pretty much whatever you do (1S, 2C, 1D). So how to play if partner has only one minor suit ace.

If declarer is 3-6-1-3 with the diamond ACE or 2-6-1-4 with diamond ACE he has 10 tricks unless you cash your clubs now (6H, 2S, 2D). But in both cases, he could have cashed diamond ACE cross to dummy and taken a discard on the diamond king to make. What if declarer is 3-5-2-3 or 2-5-2-4? Then if he has the diamond ace he has no "useful" discard on the spade. So it looks like you need to collect three minor suit tricks, but you do not need them now -- assuming good play by declarer (well that ship has already sailed -- he already announced he has all three heart honors, which is not "good play").

To get three tricks in clubs if partner has the club ACE, you will need him to have the jack as well, Since you feel comfortable that declarer will not have a useful pitch from dummy there is no rush to grab these three club trick quick. IF partner has the diamond ACE, then you hope he has the club Queen. However, If partner has Qx of clubs, declarer can play a low club towards dummy's ten. If partner wins the queen, your king can be finessed. So partner needs three clubs to the queen. Looks like he will need at least the nine as well (or QJ doubleton or tripleton), or declarer can finesse you twice in clubs.

So it looks like a passive, non-club return is needed, but that beer card is in the wrong hand.. you need a higher diamond than dummy's second card, but you lack it. IF you exit a passive heart, partner's club JACK will become a vulnerable stopper. Declarer will win teh heart, pull trumps, strip your partners spades and run hearts. Partner will come down to diamond AQJ and club Qx, with declarer having ♥X ♦xx ♣Jx. When declarer plays his last heart, partner is squeezed in less than funny way. A diamond discard puts him in a bad way. Declarer plays a diamond, if he wins the ace, declarer will end up winning two diamonds after all (partner can take a club and continue a diamond but then the beer card wins the last trick). IF partner ducks the diamond, dummy wins and partner is thrown in for a forced club lead up to the Jack.

So a club return is wrong, it allows declarer to duck to the ten (partner wins the queen instead) and then your king is dead. A passive heart could lead to an interesting squeeze on partner. It looks like a diamond now, to remove declarer's flexibility is best. Partner wins the ace and forces teh dummy to take the king then there seems to be nothing left for declarer to threaten you guys with. So return whatever diamond tells partner you have three or four diamonds.

[bluecalm]

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Why didn't I bid something? And why didn't partner play his ♠K?

Because you play crappy system and there is risk partner will jump around after "positive" response.
It's not my preferred way of playing but still it was the system in the hand.
As to the second question, I don't know :-) He is current world champion so I guess he has his reasons ;0

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This seems like an extremely unlikely scenario though and I would be in awe if any partnership finds it in a timely fashion if this happens to be the layout.

I like this analysis and you get very far in uncovering what is going on and why ♣ play may be disastrous. Still there more to this hand than just "return passively"

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A passive heart could lead to an interesting squeeze on partner. It looks like a diamond now, to remove declarer's flexibility is best. Partner wins the ace and forces teh dummy to take the king then there seems to be nothing left for declarer to threaten you guys with. So return whatever diamond tells partner you have three or four diamonds.

This is spot on and your analysis uncovers exact declarer hand (3-5-2-3, AJx clubs). Only diamond return beats it at this point. I am quite impressed
There is no chance what so over I would come up with this during play even if I stopped to think (probably I wouldn't play C then but still wouldn't come close to seeing the squeeze).
How good do you think defender needs to be to find this play in real time ? Expert ? World class ? Elite ?

[dellache]

Declarer has certainly :
1. ♥ AKQxx+ after the 1st trick
2. ♠ xxx because of second trick (playing like he did with Kxx is nonsense, pard showed count, and if he has xxx, ♠ is safe)
3. he has certainly at most 2 diamonds (otherwise he would draw trump for fear of 6 diamonds by opener).

Declarer surely has problem to create his 10th trick and :
4. is trying to set up 3 spades -- this is compatible w/ the play so far.
5. has few chances to set up extra tricks in the minors unless we help him.

So I certainly will not play a club (AJx by declarer is a disaster), and will surely play a Diamond.

what about a "safe" Heart ?
It's dangerous if declarer has xxx AKQxx xx AJx.
Declarer will draw trump, test the Spades (bad news), ruff the last spade, and might think about cashing the last Heart.
The ♦7 begins to look enormous compared to your 642, doesn't it ?
It looks like pard will have no good option at trick 8 :

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Declarer plays his last trump and :
- if he keeps 2 clubs, declarer discards a Diamond and just plays small to the Ten ;
- if pard keeps 2 Diamonds, declarer discards a Club, and plays a Diamond :
-o- if pard ducks, declarer exits with a Diamond, and defense is endplayed ;
-o- if pard takes his Ace, the 7 of Diamonds is the 10th trick.

Maybe difficult to see at the table, but anyway, the ♦6 returns looks like the most "hygienic" return.
NB: We may have to hope that declarer doesn't have the ♦Jx, otherwise it is still not over : pard will have to be in great shape in order to definitely kill the impending squeeze by playing the ♦Q next...

Bof.

[bluecalm]

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NB: We may have to hope that declarer doesn't have the ♦Jx, otherwise it is still not over : pard will have to be in great shape in order to definitely kill the impending squeeze by playing the ♦Q next...

Yeah, that was the case. Declarer had Jx of diamonds. Unfortunately I wasn't up to the task of returning diamond and didn't give my partner a chance to show off his alertness

[JLOGIC]

Isn't a diamond just a normal play anyways on general prinicple?

[inquiry]

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How good do you think defender needs to be to find this play in real time ? Expert ? World class ? Elite ?

I am not sure. It took no time to figure out not to return a club, and I wouldn't return a spade without a lot of thought, so I was down to heart a diamond fairly quickly. At the table in real time, I doubt I would have worked it all out like I did in my response. So it takes more than "advanced" which is what I rate myself to do it real time, but then I am fairly slow in my thought processes so maybe other advance players could do it real time.

[JLOGIC]

inquiry, on 2011-February-03, 17:35, said:

I am not sure. It took no time to figure out not to return a club, and I wouldn't return a spade without a lot of thought, so I was down to heart a diamond fairly quickly. At the table in real time, I doubt I would have worked it all out like I did in my response. So it takes more than "advanced" which is what I rate myself to do it real time, but then I am fairly slow in my thought processes so maybe other advance players could do it real time.

Yeah I mean finding a diamond play and working out the hand completely and finding it are two really different things, I could easily see myself just playing a diamond because it seemed like it was right once I ruled out a club, I doubt I would work out the entire hand and find a diamond for the right reason very often though.

[gnasher]

Yes, I'd play a diamond partly for the mundane reason that I want partner to know what's going on in the suit, and partly because I want him to be able to exit in the suit if declarer has Qx.

Suppose, for example, he has Kx xxx AJ10xx Q9x, and declarer (instead of playing the three-loser squeeze) draws trumps and a second spade, then plays a club to the jack. It may not be obvious to partner that he has to play a club back. (I think he can work that out, but I don't see any benefit to putting him under that sort of pressure.)

Even looking more deeply, there's probably no need to go any further than to notice that partner is in sole charge of the diamond suit, and that you can do something about it by playing a diamond.