[jillybean]

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Hi
I am reading chapter9 on hold-up, this is the second hand example given.
Watson is talking about the hold up play of the club suit and says "...you are worried about the location of only one card, the diamond King. If West holds it, you can finesse against it successfully. If East holds it, the chances are better than even that East held originally three clubs at the most."

I do not understand the correlation between East holding the K♦ and therefore only 3♣. Can someone explain please?

jillybean

[Free]

I guess this is a quite tricky hand. If east plays his ♣J at trick 1, you'll have to decide where ♣A is, and probably just take your 7 or 8 tricks... If he takes the A, you're home imo, unless East has a 5 card ♣ and ♦K. This has nothing to do with the question btw.

I also don't see the corelation immediatly. It has probably something to do with leading ♣s and leading your longest suit...

[helium]

whats the contract?

[jillybean]

oops, 3NT

[EricK]

It is badly expressed, but I don't believe he making a corellation. I think what he is trying to say is that from the choice of the lead it is likely that East has 3 cards at most (because people rarely lead a short minor against 3NT), so as long as you can hold up the club it doesn't matter if East has the ♦K.

Does that make moer sense?

Eric

[helium]

lol i guess i should ask all questions at once sry , but whats the lead and whos declerer, did opps bid?



kenneth

[inquiry]

I agree with Eric that it is badly worded. What he means is if clubs are 4-4 there is no problem (lose 3♣ and 1♦), and if EAST has five clubs, it doesn't matter whether you hold up or not. The holdup saves you when in fact EAST has exaxtly three clubs.

Ben

[jillybean]

Thanks, that does make a lot more sense

[paulhar]

Oddly enough, I think there is a correlation between East holding the DK and West holding five clubs. Let's see if I can explain it.

I have to assume (my Watson is C 1958 so I assume old-fashioned bidding but it's also the second hand in my Chapter 9.) The bidding is unfortunately omitted. So either weak NT - 3NT or S:1D, N:3D forcing, S:3NT, or N:1D, S:2NT N:3NT. In any event, probably somebody denied a four card major (either by not bidding Stayman or by not responding a major to 1D.) So, I presume that if West had four clubs and a four card major, the major would be chosen.

Case 1: East has no diamonds. West has four and frequently has only four clubs as his longest suit.

Case 2: East has one diamond, West has three and could be 3-3-3-4.

Case 3: East has two diamonds, West has 2 and can't have only four clubs without having a four card major. Clearly this is also true when East has more than two diamonds.

So, West is only leading a four card club suit in Case 1 or 2. Clearly if East has the king of diamonds, Case 1 is out and Case 2 is only true if it's singleton. So, I think that East's holding the king of diamonds does reduce the chances for a club lead from a four-card suit.