[hrothgar]

 Daniel1960, on 2015-May-29, 11:19, said:

Whether or not you believe him, he has exellent credentials on the subject of sea level.

http://www.indefence...rg/bio2.aspx#a1

Did you miss the part where the institutes that he used to be associated with disowned him because he went off the deep end and got caught fabricating data?

[Daniel1960]

 hrothgar, on 2015-May-29, 12:43, said:

Did you miss the part where the institutes that he used to be associated with disowned him because he went off the deep end and got caught fabricating data?

no, could not find that anywhere. please reference.

[y66]

Calling all elders...

Quote

September 10th: LOBBY DAY! Gather for a rally on the steps of the Capital--- bring your sign and your grandchildren! We will meet with and bring our urgent message to our Congressional representatives about the need for their support of strong climate legislation.

Our National Policy Platform is to advocate for:

• Carbon fee and dividend legislation, to reduce use of fossil fuels by building the costs to the environment into the price while returning all proceeds evenly to American taxpayers via a monthly dividend.
  
• Full implementation of the EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the single largest source - coal fired power plants.
  
• Divestment from fossil fuel companies

Elders Climate Action will be advocating for the first 2 items on Grandparents Climate Action Day.

...

[Gerben42]

There is a reason why there isn't a maximum on the "sea level rise" chart. We do not understand enough about the movements of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If this get flushed into the ocean all at once, a ten-digit number of people better get packing.

[Daniel1960]

 Gerben42, on 2015-May-30, 09:14, said:

There is a reason why there isn't a maximum on the "sea level rise" chart. We do not understand enough about the movements of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If this get flushed into the ocean all at once, a ten-digit number of people better get packing.

True, our knowledge about West Antarctica is limited. Currently, the uncertainty in the measurements exceed the change, so that we cannot be sure whether it is expanding or shrinking. Either way, the change is miniscule in persepctive.

[Zelandakh]

 blackshoe, on 2015-May-24, 09:42, said:

No idea what you're talking about.

This.

[Al_U_Card]

It is easy to understand the dire predictions whenever RCP8.5 (maximum warming anticipated by the models) is invoked.

[Daniel1960]

Yes, RCP8.5 is a factor of 4-5 higher than reality. Yet there are some who still do not view this as a maximum.

[PassedOut]

From the Post: Taking climate change seriously in school

Quote

Take Emmy-Noether-Schule, an 800-student secondary school in east Berlin I visited recently. Educators there consider climate change so pressing that they integrate it into just about every class you can think of (including, when the instructor is so inclined, Latin). About a quarter of the content in the 10th-grade English textbook, for example, is about threats to planet Earth. That means when kids learn to use the conditional mood in English, their grammar exercises rely on sentences like this: “If we don’t do something about global warming, more polar ice will start to melt.”

Likewise, in an 11th-grade geography class dedicated entirely to sustainability, students write poetry about klimawandel (climate change). My favorite couplet, from an ode by student Hannah Carsted: “The water level rises/ The fish are in a crisis.”

During my visit, Hannah and her classmates asked me about U.S. skepticism on an issue that, as far as the rest of the world is concerned, seems fairly settled. Why haven’t Americans been chastened by extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Sandy or the California drought (yes, they knew about both), that are predicted to proliferate if we do nothing to curb carbon emissions? Why don’t we believe what scientists tell us? I tried to explain the vast, vocal network of conspiracy theorists who believe that 97 percent of climate scientists have been hoaxing the world — and who have created a parallel universe of pseudoscience to prove it.

“That just seems unimaginable,” another student declared.

Unimaginable in Germany, perhaps, but not in the US.

[Zelandakh]

It seems unimaginable to me that an entire syllabus could be used to espouse a political point of view (Bündnis 90) but that seems to be the case for this school. How about a school curriculum in which a quarter of the content highlighted the advantages of strong trade unions? or suggesting how Communism would be beneficial for the planet if expanded internationally? Is that any less unimaginable?

[PassedOut]

 Zelandakh, on 2015-June-09, 08:50, said:

It seems unimaginable to me that an entire syllabus could be used to espouse a political point of view (Bündnis 90) but that seems to be the case for this school.

Except for that fact that this is done everywhere, all of the time.

[billw55]

Quote

During my visit, Hannah and her classmates asked me about U.S. skepticism on an issue that, as far as the rest of the world is concerned, seems fairly settled. Why haven’t Americans been chastened by extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Sandy or the California drought

These aren't very good examples. Hurricane Sandy had nothing to do with climate change, and in some ways wasn't even an extreme weather event. It was a weakish hurricane (although unusually large in area) that happened to hit the most populated area in the nation, at spring tide. There is no evidence I know of that more hurricanes are hitting further up the northeast seaboard.

The drought in California may be related to climate change, although longer droughts have happened there before, in the relative recent past (last 1,000 years or so). I consider this one inconclusive for now.

The tendency of some people and media outlets to attribute almost anything to climate change may actually promote skepticism. Why not stick to the more concrete examples that are available?

[PassedOut]

 billw55, on 2015-June-09, 09:24, said:

Hurricane Sandy had nothing to do with climate change, and in some ways wasn't even an extreme weather event. It was a weakish hurricane (although unusually large in area) that happened to hit the most populated area in the nation, at spring tide.

As sea levels rise, hurricanes create greater problems.

Greater amounts of heat-trapping gases in the air trap more and more heat. Heat causes ice sheets on land to melt. The melting of ice sheets on land causes sea levels to rise.

[billw55]

 PassedOut, on 2015-June-09, 10:29, said:

As sea levels rise, hurricanes create greater problems.

Greater amounts of heat-trapping gases in the air trap more and more heat. Heat causes ice sheets on land to melt. The melting of ice sheets on land causes sea levels to rise.

1. I understand all that.
2. Sea level rise from global warming is mostly due to thermal expansion of ocean water, not melting ice.
3. True, higher sea levels are likely to exacerbate the coastal effects of hurricanes. Nevertheless, the occurrence and path of this particular hurricane is unrelated to climate change. Indeed, we are in a period of unusually good luck on US hurricane strikes .. which also has no bearing on the fact climate change.
My main point is that using bad examples makes a case sound weaker, not stronger. Climate change is no exception. Hurricane Sandy is a bad example.

[Al_U_Card]

 PassedOut, on 2015-June-09, 09:13, said:

Except for that fact that this is done everywhere, all of the time.

Yes it is. It is called indoctrination and by the "skillful" use of propaganda, people and especially children, are easily convinced no matter how absurd the example when analyzed thoughtfully. Concern for our grand-children hopefully includes providing them with analytical and critical-thinking skills. Thus, when they find out that the previous generation has sold them a bill of goods to get them to tow the line... (hell, Santa Claus, the bogey-man etc.) the reaction may well follow the usual generational about-face. In this particular case, one can only hope so.

[Al_U_Card]

 billw55, on 2015-June-09, 14:29, said:

1. I understand all that.
2. Sea level rise from global warming is mostly due to thermal expansion of ocean water, not melting ice.
3. True, higher sea levels are likely to exacerbate the coastal effects of hurricanes. Nevertheless, the occurrence and path of this particular hurricane is unrelated to climate change. Indeed, we are in a period of unusually good luck on US hurricane strikes .. which also has no bearing on the fact climate change.
My main point is that using bad examples makes a case sound weaker, not stronger. Climate change is no exception. Hurricane Sandy is a bad example.

The IPCC itself couldn't find any "good" examples so they opted for "expert opinion" to proclaim ever-greater certainty that man (CO2) is responsible for the looming (ever further off) disaster of thermageddon.

[Daniel1960]

 billw55, on 2015-June-09, 14:29, said:

1. I understand all that.
2. Sea level rise from global warming is mostly due to thermal expansion of ocean water, not melting ice.
3. True, higher sea levels are likely to exacerbate the coastal effects of hurricanes. Nevertheless, the occurrence and path of this particular hurricane is unrelated to climate change. Indeed, we are in a period of unusually good luck on US hurricane strikes .. which also has no bearing on the fact climate change.
My main point is that using bad examples makes a case sound weaker, not stronger. Climate change is no exception. Hurricane Sandy is a bad example.

Bill,
Agreed. Sea level has been rising at a fairly constant rate (3 mm/yr based on satellite imagery and 2.5 mm/yr based on tidal gauges) for the last century. Should this continue, sea level will rise another 10-12" by the year 2100. This might affect coastal erosion, but have little effect on huricanes.

Hurricanes hitting New York is not a new occurrence. During the late 19th and early 20th century, New York was hit by several hurricanse. Prior to Sandy, the residents of the Big Apple experienced a rather long streak of near misses. That ended with Sandy, whose main damaged occurred not because it was a particularly strong hurricane (minimal cat. 1), but its timing. It struck at high tide, during a full moon, and in conjunction with an approaching strong cold front (a la "The Perfect Storm"). Combine that with a direct hit on Manhatten, and you have the devastation that occurred. This was in no way related to climate change, although there are those who like to point to every weather event as evidence thereof, as if these events have not ocurred repeatedly in the past.

A similar opinion is occurring in California with their "historic drought." Science has shown a history of much longer and more severe droughts occurring in the Golden State over the past millenium. The 20th century was an anomaly, as rainfall was much more abundant than in past times. The Great Drought of the 1860s brought the gold-rush economy to a standstill, as most crops and livestock were wiped out, and farmers went bankrupt. Historically, droughts decrease as the world warms. This is due to the higher rainfall associataed with higher temperatures. Globally, drought has decreased since the recent warming trend began. The California drought was not caused by higher temperatures, but a persistent high-pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Some claim that will be a common occurrence with rising temperatures, but others contend otherwise. The only known man-made contribution to the drought was the poor water management by the residents there.

[y66]

From Pope Francis to Explore Climate’s Effect on World’s Poor:

Quote

VATICAN CITY — Ban Ki-moon arrived at the Vatican with his own college of cardinals. Mr. Ban, the United Nations secretary general, had brought the leaders of all his major agencies to see Pope Francis, a show of organizational muscle and respect for a meeting between two global institutions that had sometimes shared a bumpy past but now had a mutual interest.

The agenda was poverty, and Francis inveighed against the “economy of exclusion” as he addressed Mr. Ban’s delegation at the Apostolic Palace. But in an informal meeting with Mr. Ban and his advisers, Francis shifted the discussion to the environment and how environmental degradation weighed heaviest on the poor.

“This is the pope of the poor,” said Robert Orr, who attended the May 2014 meeting as Mr. Ban’s special adviser on climate change and described the informal conversation with Francis. “The fact that he is making the link to the planet is really significant.”

Francis, the first pope from the developing world, clearly wants the document to have an impact: Its release comes during a year with three major international policy meetings, most notably a United Nations climate change conference in Paris in December. This month, the Vatican sent notifications to bishops around the world with instructions for spreading the pope’s environmental message to the more than one billion Catholics worldwide.

By wading into the environment debate, Francis is seeking to redefine a secular topic, one usually framed by scientific data, using theology and faith. And based on Francis’ prior comments, and those of influential cardinals, the encyclical is also likely to include an economic critique of how global capitalism, while helping lift millions out of poverty, has also exploited nature and created vast inequities.

“We clearly need a fundamental change of course, to protect the earth and its people — which in turn will allow us to dignify humanity,” Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who oversaw the drafting of the encyclical, said at a conference on climate change this spring at the Vatican.

Just when you thought the Vatican was on it's last legs. I love this guy. He is a million times more interesting than anyone on Game of Thrones.

[Daniel1960]

 y66, on 2015-June-14, 07:32, said:

From Pope Francis to Explore Climate’s Effect on World’s Poor:


Just when you thought the Vatican was on it's last legs. I love this guy. He is a million times more interesting than anyone on Game of Thrones.

The poorer nations have been exploited in so many ways. Deforestation is destroying the natural landscape. Big game hunters and poachers are decimating wildlife. Unregulated factories are poisining their environment. Now, the UN wants to curtail energy production, in the name of fighting climate change. Many living in these nations lack adequate electricity, yet the Western nations are preventing them from building power plants. Crops are lost on the way to market due to inadequate transport and storage, all due to the lack of sufficient energy. Yet no one is offering to help.

[PassedOut]

 y66, on 2015-June-14, 07:32, said:

From Pope Francis to Explore Climate’s Effect on World’s Poor:

Just when you thought the Vatican was on it's last legs. I love this guy. He is a million times more interesting than anyone on Game of Thrones.

It's a pretty interesting read. The complete encyclical is available here: Laudato Si’ of the Holy Father Francis on Care for Our Common Home

Quote

The urgent challenge to protect our common home includes a concern to bring the whole human family together to seek a sustainable and integral development, for we know that things can change. The Creator does not abandon us; he never forsakes his loving plan or repents of having created us. Humanity still has the ability to work together in building our common home. Here I want to recognize, encourage and thank all those striving in countless ways to guarantee the protection of the home which we share. Particular appreciation is owed to those who tirelessly seek to resolve the tragic effects of environmental degradation on the lives of the world’s poorest. Young people demand change. They wonder how anyone can claim to be building a better future without thinking of the environmental crisis and the sufferings of the excluded.

I urgently appeal, then, for a new dialogue about how we are shaping the future of our planet. We need a conversation which includes everyone, since the environmental challenge we are undergoing, and its human roots, concern and affect us all. The worldwide ecological movement has already made considerable progress and led to the establishment of numerous organizations committed to raising awareness of these challenges. Regrettably, many efforts to seek concrete solutions to the environmental crisis have proved ineffective, not only because of powerful opposition but also because of a more general lack of interest. Obstructionist attitudes, even on the part of believers, can range from denial of the problem to indifference, nonchalant resignation or blind confidence in technical solutions. We require a new and universal solidarity. As the bishops of Southern Africa have stated: “Everyone’s talents and involvement are needed to redress the damage caused by human abuse of God’s creation”.

We can hope that the words of this popular Pope lead to real actions. Clearly, this man intends to make a difference by working to improve the lot of the poor.