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am i crazy very simple auction

#1 User is offline   karlson 

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Posted 2010-October-23, 11:41

1m-1-1-3
X

1 was "standard", promising 5.

What would you say is the approximate probability distribution of doubler's (opener's) spade length?
0

#2 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-October-23, 12:18

0 2%
1 13%
2 84%
3 1%
negative numbers or 4 0%
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#3 User is offline   peachy 

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Posted 2010-October-23, 12:54

 karlson, on 2010-October-23, 11:41, said:

1m-1-1-3
X

1 was "standard", promising 5.

What would you say is the approximate probability distribution of doubler's (opener's) spade length?

Never 4 cards, nearly never 3 cards. Likely 1, maybe 2.
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#4 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2010-October-23, 16:16

raise p(3) if they are new to playing support doubles bridge support doubles. :D
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other.” -- Hamman, re: Wolff
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#5 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2010-October-23, 21:14

0: 1%
1: 39%
2: 59%
3: 1%
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#6 User is offline   MarkDean 

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Posted 2010-October-23, 22:02

0: 1%
1: 7%
2: 85%
3: 7%

I think it is a takeout double. I might do it with 3 if I had a GF and I thought spades may not be the best strain.
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#7 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-October-24, 07:04

Like most others, I think two cards is the most likely, three cards very unlikely. Gwnn's numbers are fine by me. But I also think you will learn more soon. If you rebid in one minor or the other and now he bids 4, surely that must be two card support, maybe something like Qx, offering a choice of games.
Ken
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