[gnasher]

I'd open this 1♦ even playing standard methods. 1♦-1♠;2♥-2♠;2NT seems a much better description than 1NT with this suit-oriented hand.

They don't always overcall 3♠, and even if they do I don't see why it's better to have said "I have 15-17 balanced" than "I have diamonds". 1♦ followed by a double of 3♠ isn't a bad description of what I have.

hanp said:

don't we have a balanced 16-count?

No, when the auction started it was worth at least 17, and it's not balanced.

[jdonn]

Opening 1NT is quite clear to me. It's a bit light to reverse, you want to be declarer, you block the opponents out of spades, you don't give away your shape when you reach your likely games of 3NT or 4♥, etc.

[whereagles]

Pard can easily have some flattish 6-7 and no bid.

I'd double now. Can turn out badly, but I don't think anyone can double me.

[aguahombre]

jdonn, on Oct 1 2010, 11:11 AM, said:

Opening 1NT is quite clear to me. It's a bit light to reverse, you want to be declarer, you block the opponents out of spades, you don't give away your shape when you reach your likely games of 3NT or 4♥, etc.

All of that was (is) what I thought. Then I ran K&R, and got 18.70. Wow; does that initial evaluation actually assume a fit in a red suit that we don't know about?

[nigel_k]

K&R likes aces and minor honours in sequences. Aces get a bonus for being in the long suits. 18.7 seems like a lot but I think the hand is close to being too strong for 1NT and easily qualifies for a reverse.

K&R breakdown is as follows:

1 Shape
2.6 Kx of spades
4.6 A of hearts
0.85 J9 of hearts
5.0 A of diamonds
0.75 T9 of diamonds
3.8 A of clubs
0.1 T of clubs

The base of 1 for 2452 shape compared to 0 for 2353 is just wrong, but none of the individual suit values is clearly excessive. I'd still rate the hand at over 17.5 which is the cutoff for 1NT unless you choose to open slightly heavy for tactical reasons.

[hanp]

Too strong for 1NT is pretty crazy imo.

[jdonn]

Yeah if you're going to do that much upgrading you should require like 28 for game, or scale back since you are really on a 44.63 point scale. I mean upgrading for the shape for 1NT means for the length since the shortage is not an asset for 1NT, so the diamonds are 5 + .75 + 1 = 6.75 for AT9xx?!?