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Need help in decision re doubling or not

#1 User is offline   bearmum 

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  Posted 2004-August-14, 04:13



Bidding NS vul W Dealer --- all playing Acol E/W with benjamin 2's

1 2 2NT (showing a GOOD stopper) 4 5 5

All ok so far --- NOW my partner PASSES and I have to make a decision on IF N/S can make it :D
It looks to me as though they certainly CAN so......... I bid 6 OFF 1 for a cold bottom .

The question I have is --- I remember reading SOMEWHERE about a rule in this type of situation for East--- something like
Double with X tricks Pass with Y and bid on with Z ---- please tell me what X Y and Z should be??

Thanks ( and I know what I would of doneif E in THIS hand - DOUBLE[COLOR=red][SIZE=7] as fast as possible BUT other hands would not be QUITE so straighforward )
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Posted 2004-August-14, 06:19

How many hearts do you expect your partner to have for his 2NT bid? Certainly at least two, right? That gives them a maximum of 10 "trumps" and maybe as few as 9. I would guess given the bidding 10.

How many diamonds do you think your partner has? Now, he might have one, and he could have four (he certainly is not 4-4 in majors, and certainly doesn't have 5 spades... os you might imagine at most 4S+2H). If partner had five good clubs, you might think a trap pass hoping you will reopen, so you probably could guess partner is 4-2-3-4 and 4-2-4-3 are most likely. Your partners five card club suit in actuallity would be a surpise to me. So I would think that our number of "trumps" would be my 7 plus partners 3 or 4, for 10 or 11. Since they might have 10 or 9 and we might have 10 or 11, I will figure 20 trumps.

Now I have 13 hcp, and how many points do you expect your partner to have? Surely 10 at a minimum for his 2NT, and probably 11 or 12. So we have more than half the hcp. They will not win any diamond tricks, and your partner has good club stoppers and you have spades under control. So they will not have a double fit, which would be the type of hand that can provide a surprizing number of tricks.

The law of total tricks, that you can calculate for yourself from this numbe of trumps suggest iroughly 20 tricks. If you can make 5[do] (11 tricks), the most they can make is 3 (9 tricks). While the law of total tricks is often off, here is dead on. You have 11 tricks, and they have 9 tricks. When they bid 5 hearts, here is what you could thave thought...

"ig they can make 11 tricks in hearts, then if I bid 6 diamonds, I will be down three (20-11 = 9 meaning you can only get nine tricks but you contracted for 12). Or, if I can make 12 tricks in diamonds, they are down 3 in hearts.

Given your parnte has clubs and you ahve the other two suits, I would double and lead a trump. That works fine here, and is fully supported by the law of total tricks (which happens to be under attack...but is still useful).

Ben
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#3 User is offline   Chamaco 

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Posted 2004-August-14, 06:25

I have a question:
was pard's 2NT a good bid ?

It seems to me that east hand is NOT a NT oriented hand, with empty red suits.
It is a suit-oriented hand, BUT IN OPPS SUIT.
I would think this strongly suggests a penalty pass.
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#4 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-August-14, 06:53

hi bearmum... it's easy to see, after the fact (and after the bottom), that 6D was wrong.. not quite so easy at the table, so i sympathize with your bid

however, ben's reasoning seems right on (and the law *is* under attack, i want to read what lawrence et al have prepared)... partner's pass is forcing, you had a tough call

i don't like partner's 2nt, i agree with chamaco, i much prefer a pass there, tho the problem probably wouldn't change one bit [1D (2C) P (4H) 5D (5H) P]... it appears your partner passed because he preferred you to make the last guess :D ...
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Posted 2004-August-14, 09:15

Chamaco, on Aug 14 2004, 08:25 AM, said:

I have a question:
was pard's 2NT a good bid ?

I indirectly commented on 2NT bid when I suggested partner would not have five clubs.. hehehe....

Ok, so Jimmy also questions of the auctions.. so let's look at the bidding.

1D - ok, this is a fine bid. Some might try 3NT opening bid, but not me iwth 4spades
(2C) - a truely horrible overcall.
2NT - this ihand is a perfect trap pass. Do you have any doubt partner will be short in clubs? When he reopens with a double you are ready.\
(4H) - ok a very reasonable bid
5D - I like it
(5H) - ugh. Two tricks and not a great fit. lucky it is right...
Pass - this rates to be the second bad decision by EAST. Clearly DBL is right. 1) minimum hand, 2) two quick losers in hearts, 3) no diamond fit. A pass here is forcing and suggest uncertainly about slam. East should have no uncertainty.
6D - see earlier response.

but it is always easier to fault with auctions than to say what should be bid.

ben
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#6 User is offline   bearmum 

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Posted 2004-August-14, 09:28

NOBODY has actually answered my question ------------- I appreciate all responses BUT :( PLEASE If opps bid what COULD be a sac -- WHAT do you bid
1. with ZERO tricks
2. with ONE trick
3. with 2 tricks


THAT IS ALL I am trying to find out ----------- with BASIC Acol ( which is what we were playing and will ONLY play ) I really am not interested if you all thought the 2 overcall OR the 2NT bid OR ANY OTHER bid in the sequence was right or wrong( P doesn't play LOTT even!!) ---- I am sure playing EXPERT bridge LOTS of them were totally inappropriate BUT partner and I are NOT experts :D

So can somebody answer my question ??
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Posted 2004-August-14, 10:02

I suspect no one answered your question, because to be honest, the question makes no sense. Why?

Your partner has bid a natural 2NT showing values and WE CLEARLY know that is not in diamonds. Second how many tricks you have is a misnomer here... I mean you know you have 7 diamond tricks (in diamonds of course).

If I had to guess at what you are referring to it, it would the system used by some that if the opponents bid a SLAM (5H is not a slam), in a situation where your side has a potential sacrafice. These doubles help the defenders decide whether they have enough tricks to defeat the slam or should sacrifice. The double indicates how many tricks the doubler expects to make.

One method is called the Negative Slam Double where a double of a voluntary slam only no defensive tricks. In the case that the partner has less than two such tricks, this partner sacrifices. With one or two tricks, first guy passes, and the next hand only doubles with zero tricks.

A second method, the Positive Slam Double, requires LHO of slam bidder to double only with two defensive tricks. In the case that the left hand opponent passes, his partner will sacrifice with no tricks, pass with two tricks, or double with one trick.

But none of this applies here.
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#8 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-August-14, 12:11

sorry bearmum, i don't know what xyz is... the hand is yours, so east should either bid 6D or x, in my opinion... not sure how many tricks it takes to pass, x, or bid, tho i imagine i'd have a better hand if i passed
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#9 User is offline   bearmum 

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Posted 2004-August-14, 17:54

inquiry, on Aug 15 2004, 05:02 AM, said:

I suspect no one answered your question, because to be honest, the question makes no sense. Why?

Your partner has bid a natural 2NT showing values and WE CLEARLY know that is not in diamonds. Second how many tricks you have is a misnomer here... I mean you know you have 7 diamond tricks (in diamonds of course).

If I had to guess at what you are referring to it, it would the system used by some that if the opponents bid a SLAM (5H is not a slam), in a situation where your side has a potential sacrafice. These doubles help the defenders decide whether they have enough tricks to defeat the slam or should sacrifice. The double indicates how many tricks the doubler expects to make.

One method is called the Negative Slam Double where a double of a voluntary slam only no defensive tricks. In the case that the partner has less than two such tricks, this partner sacrifices. With one or two tricks, first guy passes, and the next hand only doubles with zero tricks.

A second method, the Positive Slam Double, requires LHO of slam bidder to double only with two defensive tricks. In the case that the left hand opponent passes, his partner will sacrifice with no tricks, pass with two tricks, or double with one trick.

But none of this applies here.

Thank you Ben - I guess I had not remembered the fact that the pass or double decision was against slams :)
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