Mbodell, on Aug 23 2010, 05:18 PM, said:
Were you playing Keri over a strong nt or a weak nt? (I do weak/mini, although sort of like parts of strong over strong 1♣-1♦...1nt with and without kokish).
I've found the opposite that the 3-level splinters are one of the riskiest parts of Keri as the danger is that we avoid 3nt when it scores best when either they wouldn't have found the lead (without us telling them) or when we actually have it stopped enough but chickened out, JTxx in opener versus stiff Q with splinterer. More of a MP problem when we play 5m= versus 3nt+1, but I have noticed it is a not-uncommon occurrence.
Well I've played Keri in three different partnerships (still play it in two of them). The notrump ranges for these partnerships are:
(1) 10-12 when NV and 19-21 when V
(2) 10-12 in 1st/2nd NV and otherwise 14-16
(3) 13+ to 16- in all seats
For consistency we also use Keri in some follow-up auctions after an artificial opening and a 1NT rebid, so effectively I've also used it with the ranges 13-15 and 16-18.
You have to use a bit of judgment on the splinters; for example I usually do not splinter when I hold a stiff honor. Several times I've avoided a 4-4 major fit to play in 3NT when opener has a really strong holding opposite the splinter, I've found a few super-light slams opposite no wastage, and I've avoided a few bad 3NTs.
In my experience the "they might not lead the suit" idea is a bit overrated. People like to lead from their five-card suits and their strong four-card suits against 3NT, especially when the auction has indicated that at least one opponent doesn't have length there. So the odds that "they don't lead" the suit where we have xxx opposite x are quite slim.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit