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#1 User is online   jillybean 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 07:07

Hi, I've just played a day at this sectional and had a number of difficult, high level decisions to make. Here is one of them, please explain the reasoning behind your bid.


Scoring: MP

(4) 5 (P) P
(5) P (P) ?

"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
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#2 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 07:41

jillybean, on Jul 11 2010, 08:07 AM, said:

Hi, I've just played a day at this sectional and had a number of difficult, high level decisions to make. Here is one of them, please explain the reasoning behind your bid.


Scoring: MP

(4) 5 (P) P
(5) P (P) ?

bid 6 partner has 1 or less as he surely has to worry about quick off the top losers. Must be too short in or not to find an X.
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#3 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 08:26

Whether 6C will make is a complete guess. But 5C was very likely to make and it is unlikely that you'll get a good score for defending 5S. I think I'll go with 6C.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#4 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 12:24

This is a horrible sitation and I'm going to just double and hope for the best. Don't like my chances in 6.
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#5 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 12:56

I am a doubler. I am not eager to defend 5S given the vulnerability, but I see a lot more ways to go down in 6C than pooltuna does. I do have two trump fillers, but "having 9 when partner has already played me for 7" is hardly a huge hand, and I don't share the optimism about avoiding spade losers.
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#6 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 13:37

double
Kind Regards

Roland


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More system is not the answer...
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#7 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 13:57

How can we double if partner can't double? 6C seems like a good save/might make on a spade lead.
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#8 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 20:05

6C doesnt have to come home too often for it to be right. Lets see if 6C makes 35% of the time.

If we estimate that if 6C is making they go down 2 in 5S while if 6C fail they go down 1. i also think 5S will rarely make wich is a bit pessimist for the 6C bidder )



35% winning 14 = 4.9

65% losing 9 = 5.85 ( They dont double you optimist view for the 6C bidder)

The question i would like to ask is if preempter X is it lightner or a 5S hand with defense ? Do they play namyats ?

I think 6C will not come often enough but its close, really a state of the match hand.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
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#9 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 20:10

benlessard, on Jul 12 2010, 02:05 PM, said:

6C doesnt have to come home too often for it to be right. Lets see if 6C makes 35% of the time.

If we estimate that if 6C is making they go down 2 in 5S while if 6C fail they go down 1. i also think 5S will rarely make wich is a bit pessimist for the 6C bidder )



35% winning 14 = 4.9

65% losing 9 = 5.85 ( They dont double you optimist view for the 6C bidder)

The question i would like to ask is if preempter X is it lightner or a 5S hand with defense ? Do they play namyats ?

I think 6C will not come often enough but its close, really a state of the match hand.

Was this a MP analysis - win 14 lose 9 sounded like IMPs to me.
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#10 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 20:13

Partner should have a pretty good hand for 5. Bidding at the five level does not win often with bad hands. This is especially so at adverse vulnerability where down two is almost certain to be bad and even down one could be poor.

I would be close to raising to six last time.

Given partner didn't double then i bid 6 now which might make or it might be a sacrifice against their making 5.

Nevertheless this is far from a guarantee for a good score.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#11 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 20:50

jillybean, on Jul 11 2010, 08:07 AM, said:

Hi, I've just played a day at this sectional and had a number of difficult, high level decisions to make. Here is one of them, please explain the reasoning behind your bid.


Scoring: MP

(4) 5 (P) P
(5) P (P) ?

really tough.....I will try 6c as han and others have said but I have no issue if you prefer double,pard.

6c could make..could be good save...again have no issue with double.
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#12 User is online   jillybean 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 22:25

I did bid 6, double would have worked better.

Scoring: MP

(4) 5 (P) P
(5) P (P) 6


My partners pass is forcing is it?
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
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#13 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2010-July-11, 22:50

no
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#14 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2010-July-12, 00:28

if you have to ask whether pass is forcing or not, then it's not forcing.
OK
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#15 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2010-July-12, 00:51

jillybean, on Jul 12 2010, 04:25 PM, said:

My partners pass is forcing is it?

No you could have nothing.
Wayne Burrows

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Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#16 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-July-12, 05:34

Prefer 4NT (two-suiter) by North instead of 5. It might go like

4 4NT pass 5

and now opener must decide whether to bid 5 RIGHT NOW. If he passes, you'll be left to play for a good score. If he bids, you're on a guess again, but you'd have a better pic of pard's hand (likely hearts-minor 2 suiter, so dbl is easier).
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#17 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2010-July-13, 12:45

If its MP then WTP X, bidding 6C at MP is terrible.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
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#18 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2010-July-13, 15:28

For a change, I agree with whereagles: partner should not have bid 5. He deserved to find you with something like xxx Q10xxxx Axxx void...cold for 6 and no play for 5 (and I won't believe anyone who claims they'd bid over 5)

As it is, I also agree with bidding 6. All of those who chose that bid were well aware that it might work out poorly...altho I doubt that any of us would have expected partner to have the hand he held.
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