[jillybean]

Hi, I've just played a day at this sectional and had a number of difficult, high level decisions to make. Here is one of them, please explain the reasoning behind your bid.

Scoring: MP

(4♠) 5♣ (P) P
(5♠) P (P) ?

---

[pooltuna]

jillybean, on Jul 11 2010, 08:07 AM, said:

Hi, I've just played a day at this sectional and had a number of difficult, high level decisions to make. Here is one of them, please explain the reasoning behind your bid.

Scoring: MP

(4♠) 5♣ (P) P
(5♠) P (P) ?

---

bid 6♣ partner has 1 or less ♠ as he surely has to worry about quick off the top losers. Must be too short in ♦ or ♥ not to find an X.

[hanp]

Whether 6C will make is a complete guess. But 5C was very likely to make and it is unlikely that you'll get a good score for defending 5S. I think I'll go with 6C.

[whereagles]

This is a horrible sitation and I'm going to just double and hope for the best. Don't like my chances in 6♣.

[Siegmund]

I am a doubler. I am not eager to defend 5S given the vulnerability, but I see a lot more ways to go down in 6C than pooltuna does. I do have two trump fillers, but "having 9 when partner has already played me for 7" is hardly a huge hand, and I don't share the optimism about avoiding spade losers.

[Codo]

double

[JLOGIC]

How can we double if partner can't double? 6C seems like a good save/might make on a spade lead.

[benlessard]

6C doesnt have to come home too often for it to be right. Lets see if 6C makes 35% of the time.

If we estimate that if 6C is making they go down 2 in 5S while if 6C fail they go down 1. i also think 5S will rarely make wich is a bit pessimist for the 6C bidder )



35% winning 14 = 4.9

65% losing 9 = 5.85 ( They dont double you optimist view for the 6C bidder)

The question i would like to ask is if preempter X is it lightner or a 5S hand with defense ? Do they play namyats ?

I think 6C will not come often enough but its close, really a state of the match hand.

[Cascade]

benlessard, on Jul 12 2010, 02:05 PM, said:

6C doesnt have to come home too often for it to be right. Lets see if 6C makes 35% of the time.

If we estimate that if 6C is making they go down 2 in 5S while if 6C fail they go down 1. i also think 5S will rarely make wich is a bit pessimist for the 6C bidder )



35% winning 14 = 4.9

65% losing 9 = 5.85 ( They dont double you optimist view for the 6C bidder)

The question i would like to ask is if preempter X is it lightner or a 5S hand with defense ? Do they play namyats ?

I think 6C will not come often enough but its close, really a state of the match hand.

Was this a MP analysis - win 14 lose 9 sounded like IMPs to me.

[Cascade]

Partner should have a pretty good hand for 5♣. Bidding at the five level does not win often with bad hands. This is especially so at adverse vulnerability where down two is almost certain to be bad and even down one could be poor.

I would be close to raising to six last time.

Given partner didn't double then i bid 6♣ now which might make or it might be a sacrifice against their making 5♠.

Nevertheless this is far from a guarantee for a good score.

[mike777]

jillybean, on Jul 11 2010, 08:07 AM, said:

Hi, I've just played a day at this sectional and had a number of difficult, high level decisions to make. Here is one of them, please explain the reasoning behind your bid.

Scoring: MP

(4♠) 5♣ (P) P
(5♠) P (P) ?

---

really tough.....I will try 6c as han and others have said but I have no issue if you prefer double,pard.

6c could make..could be good save...again have no issue with double.

[jillybean]

I did bid 6♣, double would have worked better.

Scoring: MP

(4♠) 5♣ (P) P
(5♠) P (P) 6♣

---

My partners pass is forcing is it?

[JLOGIC]

no

[jjbrr]

if you have to ask whether pass is forcing or not, then it's not forcing.

[Cascade]

jillybean, on Jul 12 2010, 04:25 PM, said:

My partners pass is forcing is it?

No you could have nothing.

[whereagles]

Prefer 4NT (two-suiter) by North instead of 5♣. It might go like

4♠ 4NT pass 5♣

and now opener must decide whether to bid 5 RIGHT NOW. If he passes, you'll be left to play for a good score. If he bids, you're on a guess again, but you'd have a better pic of pard's hand (likely hearts-minor 2 suiter, so dbl is easier).

[benlessard]

If its MP then WTP X, bidding 6C at MP is terrible.

[mikeh]

For a change, I agree with whereagles: partner should not have bid 5♣. He deserved to find you with something like xxx Q10xxxx Axxx void...cold for 6♥ and no play for 5♣ (and I won't believe anyone who claims they'd bid over 5♣)

As it is, I also agree with bidding 6♣. All of those who chose that bid were well aware that it might work out poorly...altho I doubt that any of us would have expected partner to have the hand he held.