[OSH]

straube, on May 12 2010, 07:23 PM, said:

I think these numbers are pretty damning for the unbalanced natural 1D.

Your frequency distribution then (assuming 12-14 NTs) is something like...

1C  14%
1D    5%
1H    5%
1S    5%
1N    8%

so your 1D is way underloaded.  Contrast this to 1C at 16+ (good 15 unbal and bad 17 bal) and foggy diamond and 14-16 NT

1C    9%
1D  14%
1H    5%
1S    5%
1N    5%


btw, what site did you use to run your numbers?

The frequence in the first case is still more unbalanced, because the 5% for the 1♦ was for the 11-15 range, and it should be 11-14 upgrading the 15HCP unbalanced ♦ in the strong ♣.
Is not inherent this discussion, but the frequence of 1M is more than 1♦, because I open 1M with 5332 and 5-5 M/♦, that were excluded from 1♦. In this contest, 1M is 13% more frequent than 1♦.
I understand your point, and I admit that the unbalanced 1♦ is heavy underloaded, but the other one seems to me a bit overloaded. I know you don't have to open all 11 counts (as well as sometimes I can open 1♦ with 4135 or 1435), but I would not be happy with my pard opening 1♦ one time every three and me knowing that 1 time every 2 he doesn't have ♦s. Of course, I know I'm in a minority.

The distribution with 1♣ 16+ and 15 bal, would be:
1♣: 11,5%
1♦: 5,1%
1M: 5,8%
12-14 1NT: 8% (9,8% considering to upgrade half of 11 counts)

This is not perfect, but at least reasonable.

I didn't find a site to run these numbers, I started from this and spent all the day in doing the calculation!

[shevek]

I think it's wrong to be concerned about going against the field.
Swings and roundabouts.
15+10 might make you nervous but 14+11 will make them nervous.
Your 15+9 sits in 1NT while the Standard players choose between in inviting & blasting.
Good clean fun.

If we all played the same the same notrump range, bridge would be ..... American.

[zenko]

[quote name='OSH' date='May 13 2010, 02:01 AM'][quote name='straube' date='May 12 2010, 07:23 PM']I think these numbers are pretty damning for the unbalanced natural 1D.


The distribution with 1[cl] 16+ and 15 bal, would be:
1[cl]: 11,5%
1[di]: 5,1%
1M: 5,8%
12-14 1NT: 8% (9,8% considering to upgrade half of 11 counts)

[/QUOTE]
Did you include in 1D also 4D5C hands? If not you should probably consider it, at least 45(31), if your NT range lets you open 1N with 4522.

[OSH]

zenko, on May 13 2010, 02:09 PM, said:

Did you include in 1D also 4D5C hands? If not you should probably consider it, at least 45(31), if your NT range lets you open 1N with 4522.

Yes, I included both 5431 and 5422. The frequence is 0,47%, 1/12 of 5431 and 5422 hands (within 11-15).

[OSH]

shevek, on May 13 2010, 01:06 PM, said:

I think it's wrong to be concerned about going against the field.
Swings and roundabouts.
15+10 might make you nervous but 14+11 will make them nervous.
Your 15+9 sits in 1NT while the Standard players choose between in inviting & blasting.
Good clean fun.

I don't know if it is right to be concerned, but I think it's an important matter.
15+9 sits if 9 are balanced, I found more problems when I have a 5332 or 5431 9 point count with a major. Now, if you have the chance to invite at the 2 level all is good, but my partnership is not ready for a nice stuff like KERI yet, and I can only transfer in my major, that is not a good position: it could be 24 with a 5-3 fit or 21 with a 5-2 fit. This problem is not due only to the NT range, I admit it.
My concern about the field depends on where I play: in local club / regional tournament, where we are significantly / slightly above average, I would like to be with the field, we don't need this kind of bidding swings.
When we qualify for National Championships, where we can finish above average but I think our level is under the average, it can be good to go against the field: we can't score well if we play the same contracts.
I noticed it particularly true in the mixed competitions because, due to the system, we can go against the field also for the playing side.
I have no intention to offend anyone but, at National level, we can score better if I play the "women" hands and my lady plays the "men" hands: at least in the 50% of the hands we have a chance!