[straube]

Any rules of thumb out there for deciding when to explore for slam and when not?
We're using QPs. Obviously it depends on distribution.

How many for each situaton, for instance...

2 balanced hands-8 cd fit
2 balanced hands-9 cd fit
1 balanced hand opposite a 5431 or 4441 hand?-8 cd fit
1 balanced hand opposite a 5431 or 4441 hand?-9 cd fit
1 balanced hand opposite a 5-5-2-1 hand-8 cd fit
1 balanced hand opposite a 5-5-2-1 hand-9 cd fit

Anyone care to take a stab? The question is how many before we start to explore for slam (risking the 5-level). thanks

[hrothgar]

My MOSCITO notes make some suggestions

[straube]

hrothgar, on Apr 12 2010, 11:40 AM, said:

My MOSCITO notes make some suggestions

What do they suggest?

[hrothgar]

You can find an OLD OLD OLD incomplete version of the notes as http://www.bridgeguy...chardWilley.pdf

I think the section on slam bidding starts around page 80 or so

[straube]

Thanks. I'd be interested in specific recommendations.

For example, if I have 4-4-3-2 opposite 4-1-4-4 I need AKQ x AKQ AK or 17
if suits behave. Except that that would require 2 ruffs (unless we have the diamond jack) so maybe we need 18 as a minimum.

If the balanced hand is captain, it has an easier time diagnosing the mesh. If the 144 hand is captain, maybe it needs 19 or so in combination just to ask.

Any thoughts?

[rbforster]

18 requires good shape and no wastage
19 requires a little luck (off AK or KKQ) but is worth exploring
20+ bid the slam or at least relay out everything

If you don't have a suit fit or a potential source of tricks, you might be a little more conservative.

[awm]

I'll just mention that I've played a QP-based relay system for quite a while now and I really don't think of things in this way. My tendency is just to visualize possible hands for partner once the QP total is known and try to figure out what we can make opposite various holdings. It really depends a lot on the shapes and how the hands fit.

[hrothgar]

awm, on Apr 12 2010, 10:56 PM, said:

I'll just mention that I've played a QP-based relay system for quite a while now and I really don't think of things in this way. My tendency is just to visualize possible hands for partner once the QP total is known and try to figure out what we can make opposite various holdings. It really depends a lot on the shapes and how the hands fit.

This is really good advice

The single best thing that you can do is to get a hand generator, deal out a lot of borderline slam hands, relay them out, and then see whats what....

[straube]

It's easier to do this when I'm balanced and relaying out an unbalanced hand. A lot harder the other way. If I'm unbalanced, I can picture the cards that partner needs for slam to make, but didn't Hamman say "I don't have the cards you're looking for"?

So say partner has shown 8 QPs and 3-4-4-2 and I have AQxxx x KQx AQJx. That's 19 if I did the math right. Do I ask? Still looking for rules of thumb here.

[rbforster]

straube, on Apr 12 2010, 03:37 PM, said:

So say partner has shown 8 QPs and 3-4-4-2 and I have AQxxx x KQx AQJx.  That's 19 if I did the math right.  Do I ask?  Still looking for rules of thumb here.

For that hand, key card in spades follorwed by a club asking bid seems best.

[akhare]

Rob F, on Apr 12 2010, 03:55 PM, said:

straube, on Apr 12 2010, 03:37 PM, said:

So say partner has shown 8 QPs and 3-4-4-2 and I have AQxxx x KQx AQJx.  That's 19 if I did the math right.  Do I ask?  Still looking for rules of thumb here.

For that hand, key card in spades follorwed by a club asking bid seems best.

Also, with only 11 QPs this hand should have reverse relayed and let the balanced hand do the asking.

Assuming that the reverse relays are limited to 12 QPs, a balanced hand with sub-par QPs can can quickly terminate the auction after discovering the basic shape...

[Free]

I remember in general to need 21 QP's (missing an A / K+Q / 3 Q's). However, if partner has a singleton opposite a suit where I don't have any values, we obviously need only 18 QP's (partner can have max 3 QP's in his singleton, so there are at least 3 QP's that opps hold which are irrelevant for us).

This is just a general idea, visualizing makes things more easy for sure.

[shevek]

straube, on Apr 12 2010, 03:37 PM, said:

It's easier to do this when I'm balanced and relaying out an unbalanced hand.  A lot harder the other way.  If I'm unbalanced, I can picture the cards that partner needs for slam to make, but didn't Hamman say "I don't have the cards you're looking for"?

So say partner has shown 8 QPs and 3-4-4-2 and I have AQxxx x KQx AQJx.  That's 19 if I did the math right.  Do I ask?  Still looking for rules of thumb here.

David (DinDip) could set you right here.
Basically, if partner has a balanced hand and you have a shortage. you should be describing. You can't easily evaluate your shortage but partner can.

We have methods like this

1♣  2♣ = 8+ HCP bal with a major

2♦ = relay
2M = usually unbalanced, planning to show shape, strain in doubt
3x = shortage

Anyway, say you realy to find 3-4-4-2 & 8 SPs. Probably the bid to show that is about 4♦.
Kxx  Axxx  Axxx  xx
is enough and not unlikely.
With the same and ♥KQxx slam is reasonable.
Note that Axxx is twice as common as KQxx. You need to know a bit of simple combination to assess chances.
There are less common layouts where slam is poor. You need DCB or equivalent to sort them out. Hands without ♠K are bad, even though partner will have ♠J half the time. I would press the DCB button and stop opposite ♥AK or no spade king.
3♥  4♦  8 SPs
4♥  4♠  0 ♥s or 2 including A (AK or AQ)

4♥  5♣  H - y, D - y, S - no
5♠

Yes 5♠ may fail. Too bad.
Otherwise have a go.
In the early days, guidelines are helpful. like 20 SPs, or 25 total of SPs & 3-2-1 shortage points.

[dake50]

Anyone have copy of hammick's site? He had a paper on slam types: bal-power, 2-suits, ruffs, X-ruffs with postulated frequency. That at least addresses the spectrum of cases. I lost my copy in a system crash.

[straube]

How about this for a rule of thumb? I know those who are more experienced with relays don't need a rule of thumb, but I'd like one for myself.

Add total QPs and total trump and decide whether to DCB

26 Don't investigate
27 Investigate but probably no slam
28 Investigate and probably bid slam
29 Almost certainly bid slam

[Free]

straube, on Apr 26 2010, 05:06 PM, said:

How about this for a rule of thumb? I know those who are more experienced with relays don't need a rule of thumb, but I'd like one for myself.

Add total QPs and total trump and decide whether to DCB

26 Don't investigate
27 Investigate but probably no slam
28 Investigate and probably bid slam
29 Almost certainly bid slam

That's a very poor rule imo. With a 5332 opposite 5332 distribution you have 10 trumps, so with your rule 19 QP will be enough, you need more like 21.

Make it 5143 vs 5413 and you still need 19 QP. However, here you can have enough with 15...

If you want to make a rule that depends on distribution, I'd advise you to take short suits into account, not long suits.

[straube]

Fair enough. Shortness is like the engine and trump like gasoline and my rule only takes into account the latter. If you look at my original post, I asked for recommendations for QPs for various patterns including shortages but no one took a stab at that.

I know this seems silly to others, but having a guideline for when to start dcb and when not is going to save my partner and I some imps and we're preparing for a tournament. Obviously no rule is going to work for every situation but for example I tried out my rule in our bidding practice last night and even that poor one seemed like it would be helpful. Maybe the rule should add points for shortness? Can you come up with a better rule, Free? It's not meant to supplant judgment. Just assist.

Maybe something along the lines of QPs + trump + shortness = a number and if that number is high enough, then DCB?

[straube]

Free, on Apr 27 2010, 03:02 AM, said:

straube, on Apr 26 2010, 05:06 PM, said:

How about this for a rule of thumb?  I know those who are more experienced with relays don't need a rule of thumb, but I'd like one for myself.

Add total QPs and total trump and decide whether to DCB

26  Don't investigate
27  Investigate but probably no slam
28  Investigate and probably bid slam
29  Almost certainly bid slam

That's a very poor rule imo. With a 5332 opposite 5332 distribution you have 10 trumps, so with your rule 19 QP will be enough, you need more like 21.

Make it 5143 vs 5413 and you still need 19 QP. However, here you can have enough with 15...

If you want to make a rule that depends on distribution, I'd advise you to take short suits into account, not long suits.

Ok, I looked up what Mike Lawrence had to say in "I fought the Law". Assuming a trump fit, he looked at the partnership's two shortest suits.

Let's say 5431 is opposite 4144. We have a trump fit (spades) and shortness in clubs and hearts.

Our Short Suit Total is 1+1 = 2.

Looking at that 5332 opposite 5332 our short suit total is 3 + 2 = 5 because you can't be looking at the same suit (clubs) twice.

I gathered that the SST difference equates to roughly a trick and a trick is roughly a king or 2 QPs. So perhaps if I subtract twice the SST from the QP total I can get a number and then I can use this number as a check before deciding whether to dcb and venture into the 5-level.

You were suggesting that 5332 opposite 5332 needed 21 QPs. So if we subtract 2 * 5 from 21 we'd get 11.

With your 5143 opposite 5413 you suggested we might need 15. If we subtract a SST of 2*2 from 15 we get 11.

Am I on the right track? Suggestions?

[Free]

straube, on Apr 27 2010, 03:09 PM, said:

Fair enough. Shortness is like the engine and trump like gasoline and my rule only takes into account the latter. If you look at my original post, I asked for recommendations for QPs for various patterns including shortages but no one took a stab at that.

I said the following:

Quote

I remember in general to need 21 QP's (missing an A / K+Q / 3 Q's). However, if partner has a singleton opposite a suit where I don't have any values, we obviously need only 18 QP's (partner can have max 3 QP's in his singleton, so there are at least 3 QP's that opps hold which are irrelevant for us).

This is just a general idea, visualizing makes things more easy for sure.

This is still the best advice I can give. Setting up a rule for this is probably VERY complicated, because lost values in partner's short suit have to be accounted for, the comparisson between length of partner's short suit in your hand and the number of trumps in partner's hand may be important,...

Rules are to be broken, but if you really want to create a simple rule I'll be happy to give critisism if you're going the wrong way

[Free]

straube, on Apr 28 2010, 07:47 AM, said:

Ok, I looked up what Mike Lawrence had to say in "I fought the Law". Assuming a trump fit, he looked at the partnership's two shortest suits.

Let's say 5431 is opposite 4144. We have a trump fit (spades) and shortness in clubs and hearts.

Our Short Suit Total is 1+1 = 2.

Looking at that 5332 opposite 5332 our short suit total is 3 + 2 = 5 because you can't be looking at the same suit (clubs) twice.

I gathered that the SST difference equates to roughly a trick and a trick is roughly a king or 2 QPs. So perhaps if I subtract twice the SST from the QP total I can get a number and then I can use this number as a check before deciding whether to dcb and venture into the 5-level.

You were suggesting that 5332 opposite 5332 needed 21 QPs. So if we subtract 2 * 5 from 21 we'd get 11.

With your 5143 opposite 5413 you suggested we might need 15. If we subtract a SST of 2*2 from 15 we get 11.

Am I on the right track? Suggestions?

Problem is that you can have enough with 15 if you have the 5431s, but it's not always the case. It depends on what partner holds in our short suit, and what we hold in partner's short suit.

I'm not sure where you're going, but am I correct to assume you consider 11 some kind of constant?