[mikestar]

Rule of 15 is a reasonable guide when you are in doubt, I ignore it when bid or pass seems celarcut. However, I did once try following it blindly with this hand:

Scoring: MP

---

East-West had 4S on a crossruff though they couldn't bid it. Our limit was 3D. No one went plus with our cards, everyone else opened. An absolutely beautiful top. We had been behind and ended up finishing high.

I would regard a position as extreme as this as shooting--but what a shot!

[the hog]

"I would regard a position as extreme as this as shooting--but what a shot! "

Interesting Mike, I would regard the hand yopu posted as a clear cut pass in 4th seat; not shooting at all.

[mikestar]

Ron,

The more I think about it the more I agree with you--pass is the correct call on the hand I posted. At the table I thought long and hard before throwing it in. After all, I can make five of a minor opposite a stiff heart and a minor suit Ace. But the problem is in that case, the opponents have a double fit in the majors and can make five and won't have any trouble bidding it. So we still go minus.

I do think that this is an anti field bid, but the field is much more likely to be wrong than right here.

[Free]

With the posted hand, it's a clearcut PASS. Swap the Majors, and perhaps it's better to open, since ♠'s are involved.

[whereagles]

Funny how everybody has different opinions on this... LOL. Here are mine

1st & 2nd: 1D
3rd & 4th: 2D

I'm not afraid of pushing them into 4 spades by opening 1D in last seat. Opening 2D should be enough to keep them out of their spades. And if they do bid spades, the hand is defensive enough to set them at the 4 level, and probably at the 3 level as well (with some help from pard).

Compare with the other hand -- Qxx KQJxx KQJxx: spade void and at best 1-2 defensive tricks. This one's much more dangerous to open, especially at the 1-level, and probably also at the 2-level. If something, open 3D.

[the hog]

"I do think that this is an anti field bid, but the field is much more likely to be wrong than right here. "

Agree with this. Another minus, Mike, is that your hand is aceless.

Incidentally opening the original hand 2D in fourth seat is nuts.
A 4th seat 2D opening resembles something like:

xx
Kx
AKJxxxx
Ax

[Flame]

whereagles, on Jul 21 2004, 03:17 AM, said:

Funny how everybody has different opinions on this... LOL.

I dont agree, this was one of the esiest questions on the furum and almost everyone agreed its a simple 1D, considering pass at 4th seat.

[Free]

whereagles, on Jul 21 2004, 09:17 AM, said:

~snip~
Opening 2D should be enough to keep them out of their spades.
~snip~

I don't know in what kind of field you play, but playing at an advanced+ level, they WILL find their ♠ fit after a 2♦ opening. I don't see what the big difficulty is after a 2-level opener anyway. Weak-two's in ♦ or ♥ never stopped me to find my ♠s...

[whereagles]

You give experts too much credit... if they didn't manage to scrap up a spade bid at the 1 level and undisturbed, chances are they'll have even more trouble doing it at the 2 level and after a solid preempt. I'd be more worried if E/W were weak players who didn't open 1S because they "didn't have 12 points". They might now recklessly bid spades on 10 their counts and, lo and behold, they'd be right!

As for passing out in 4th seat... let's give pard his most likely shape and count. He rates to be 9-10 pts, and hold a 5323, 4423 or 4324. Possible hands

QJxxx Axx xx Kxx

KTxx KJxx xx Kxx

AJxx xxx xx Axxx

you have good chances to make 2D on any of these. And if opps bid to 2 or 3 spades, they'll probably go down.

[Free]

Why does he have 4 ♠s?? Can't your opps have 9 ♠s together? Or even 10? What if p has:

Kxx KJxxx xx Kxx (2♠ or 3♠ easy)
Ax KJxx xxx Jxxx (4♠ makable with stiff or void ♦)

I can give you thousands of examples where you're right, but I can give you thousands of examples where you're wrong as well friend

[whereagles]

I said:

let's give pard his most likely shape and count

[Cascade]

whereagles, on Jul 21 2004, 11:02 PM, said:

As for passing out in 4th seat... let's give pard his most likely shape and count. He rates to be 9-10 pts, and hold a 5323, 4423 or 4324. Possible hands

These most likely shapes only account for a small fraction of the possible shapes:

These are the 11 most likely shapes and there frequencies.

4 3 2 4 0.032250712
4 4 2 3 0.032250712
4 3 3 3 0.030714963
5 3 2 3 0.029486365
3 4 2 4 0.025083887
3 4 3 3 0.023889416
3 3 3 4 0.023889416
4 4 3 2 0.020156695
4 2 3 4 0.020156695
5 4 2 2 0.019350427
5 2 2 4 0.019350427

In total these represent less than 28% of all of partner's distributions when you hold this hand.

The three you mention actually rank 1st, 2nd and 4th and make up less than 10% of the hands.

[whereagles]

That's neat info. Thx! The more worrisome case is the 3424. Pard may not want to compete to the 3 level, and they have a 9-card spade fit. But that's only one case out of many, many cases which turn out ok for our side, meaning either we can push to 3D with safety, or set them in 2/3 spades.

Note: I believe there's more than 28% chance for those distributions, because if pard has a 6 or 7 card suit, he would probably have opened the bidding.

[the hog]

The problem with opening 2D in 4th seat is that the most likely scenario is that your partner thinks you have your bid and bids 3N on a scattered 8/9 count with a D fit.

[whereagles]

I understand that. But he can bid 2NT to find out how good my 4th seat 2D opening is. Unless he's desperate for points, he doesn't need to just dive into 3NT

[PriorKnowledge]

1st, 2nd, 3rd - 1D - not even close. I use old point count and open any 13 or 12 hcp. 11hcp + 2 = 13
4th - pass. Use rule of 15 11+1s = 12.... if Qxx x AKxxxx Qxx in 4th, Open 1D.

[Antoine Fourrière]

To me, that diamond one-suiter looks more like a 3♦ opening (or an equivalent).

As a rule of thumb with minor one-suiters, I count 4-3-2-1 in the long suit, 3-2-1-0.5 in the other three suits and 1 for a seventh card,. Then I open at the three level if I have between 7 and 9 of these "mixed" points. Granted, 3♦ would be more clear-cut without the ♥10 and the ♦10-9, but there are many spades outside.

Pass or 3♦ in fourth seat.

[Trpltrbl]

1♦ in first seat.
2♦ in 4th seat, if I am playing weak NT, otherwise I either pass or open 3♦.
Depends on state of match and if it is a midnite game. Don't play midnites to pass anything out.

Mike