[inquiry]

   We all have suitplay.exe or similar. So the mathematics of the correct play here should be easy to get even if you don't know it. But I was wondering what if anything affect the opening lead might have on your decision.

   The hand is....

Scoring: IMP

1N-2H
2S-3H
4S-6S?
P

   Opening lead club ACE...

   Expert opponents, unknownish partner.

---

[Pict]

I don't think I can make a reliable deduction about West's trump holding, so I would run the Queen planning to finesse again.

[Poky]

Ace and small to Q. I'm playing lefty for ♠K.

[Fluffy]

I am playing lefty for ♠K as well, but not sure if ♠KJxx or ♠Kxx, hopefully neither as I am awful on this guesses

[Free]

I think with ♠KJxx and ♣A lefty might have doubled. So I play him for Kx, Kxx or Kxxx.

On the other hand, he might just lead ♣A because he was taught to lead Aces against slams that were bid without cuebids or RKC...

[phil_20686]

Seems clear just to play the % to me. Whiloe i agree that the lead produces a small inference, it is hardly conclusive. After all, he might also lead the ace with a stiff small trump betting on partner to have a trump trick (since it looks like an 8 card fit).

Also, given the bidding he might just decide to have a look at dummy. afterall you could easily be off akc on this auction.

Further, the % play of running the queen picks up Kx Kxx Kxxx with lho, it loses only to KJx KJxx KJ. Also im pretty sure that the best alternative (if you think lho has the k) is to play ace and small to the q, picking up Kxx with lho and still losing to Kjxx.

[ceeb]

♠A then low to the ♠Q. I think it's a very close but interesting question.

I make the nominal percentages (absent lead inference) to be
(double finesse -- run the Q) 71%
(ace then low to the Q) 59%
(low to the Q) 50%

The lead inference is not strong. The bidding slightly discourages a heart lead (no double) and arguably the dummy has advertised minor suit controls.

Even if we assume that LHO would always lead the ♣A when holding the ♠K but would lead it only half the time without the ♠K, the 59% for ace-then-low increases only to under 66%, seemingly decisive for double finesse. However, at the same time the double finesse probability decreases similarly, to 63%. Overall ace-then-low is therefore best provided LHO is dissuaded from at least about 4/9 of "random" (no trump trick) ace leads.

[Pict]

ceeb, on Feb 17 2010, 03:31 PM, said:

The lead inference is not strong...

For me a key part of the OP was that the opponent is an expert.

I took that seriously. Do expert opponents like to tell you how to play the hand.

[Fluffy]

depends on the trust on north actually, this auction screams club void in dummy and I'd never lead ♣A, but if north is a kind of gambler leading anythign but ♣A to find dummy with ♦Kx and ♣x would be so stupid.

[Pict]

Fluffy, on Feb 17 2010, 04:09 PM, said:

depends on the trust on north actually, this auction screams club void in dummy and I'd never lead ♣A, but if north is a kind of gambler leading anythign but ♣A to find dummy with ♦Kx and ♣x would be so stupid.

And the OP said North 'unknown'.