[dellache]

Scoring: IMP

2♠ (3NT) The end.
Your lead.
*2♠= 6 carder, somewhat loosy sometimes.

---

[Apollo81]

Since it's IMPs and I don't see great things from any other suit, I'll lead partner's spades. No way I would do this at MPs though, too likely to blow a trick and not set them.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

Spades, that means the Ace.

Why? We have 2 sure tricks, but need 3 add. tricks, which suit offers the best
chance for 3 add. tricks?

Of course this is just a guess, but it is your best guess, any other suit would also
be a guess.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Fluffy]

yeah Imps makes it easy, lets hope partner's got an entry, maybe its one of those deals where we must discard ♦A

[hanp]

Fluffy, on Jan 19 2010, 06:04 PM, said:

yeah Imps makes it easy, lets hope partner's got an entry, maybe its one of those deals where we must discard ♦A

True hand from this Monday, club game:

Scoring: IMP

---

Norths plays 3NT after west has overcalled in diamonds.

East leads the diamond 8, west wins the queen. West leads the diamond 9 which holds. West now plays the diamond 3, east pitching the club ace.

[Fluffy]

lol , I think the ace third discard only happens when partner has the jack, not the queen

[hanp]

So, was east dumb, west dumb, neither, or both?

[Codo]

East was dumb- if West had the queen in clubs doubelton he may had played the lowest diamond to show that.

[hanp]

Obviously I should have used boldfaced letters:

Quote

East leads the diamond 8, west wins the queen. West leads the diamond 9 which holds. West now plays the diamond 3

[Old York]

hanp, on Jan 20 2010, 12:52 PM, said:

Fluffy, on Jan 19 2010, 06:04 PM, said:

yeah Imps makes it easy, lets hope partner's got an entry, maybe its one of those deals where we must discard ♦A

True hand from this Monday, club game:

Scoring: IMP

---

Norths plays 3NT after west has overcalled in diamonds.

East leads the diamond 8, west wins the queen. West leads the diamond 9 which holds. West now plays the diamond 3, east pitching the club ace.

How many reached 6♣?

Tony

[hanp]

This is what east was hoping for:

Scoring: IMP

---

[hanp]

Old York, on Jan 20 2010, 10:00 AM, said:

How many reached 6♣?

Tony

3.

[gnasher]

I think East is a very fine player, and West is lucky that it was IMPs.

[hanp]

Maybe west (a very fine player) knew it was IMPs? He might have visualized:

Scoring: IMP

---

Is it possible that north (not as fine a player) had believed his carding and tried for a 3-3 split in a major?

Wait, this didn't make sense, declarer had only 7 tricks to start with.

[Fluffy]

I still believe its east's fault, if partner has ♣Q you just have to duck twice, or duck once and discard the ace when you feel under pressure later. It is only when he has ♣J when you need to discard the ace right now.

[quiddity]

Fluffy, east has to discard something. If he discards a major, declarer has 9 tricks. If he discards a low club, he can't duck twice later.

[Fluffy]

ahh sorry, you are right

[Lobowolf]

I'd actually want to lead a club. But I'd lead a spade.

[whereagles]

doh.. it's west's fault for not having the ♣Q

as for the lead... spade ace because 1. overcaller might be bluffing and 2. all other leads suck anyway ahah

[dellache]

Apollo81, on Jan 19 2010, 09:59 PM, said:

Since it's IMPs and I don't see great things from any other suit, I'll lead partner's spades.  No way I would do this at MPs though, too likely to blow a trick and not set them.

Apollo81 sum's up the impressing majority of votes for leading the ♠Ace. At the table, I led a neutral ♥7, and it allowed declarer to make (she had stiff ♠KQ, and pard had a terrible 6HCP hand... including the ♥Ace). We missed the opportunity to gain 10 imps (same lead at the other table, 2NT-3NT without the 2♠ opening).

Partner wondered at the end of the match why I chose such an "exotic" lead, as ♠Ace was obvious.

These were my thoughts :
1. ♠Ace will often blow a trick (i.e. increase declarer trick potential [DTP] by one) ;
2. if the DTP was 8 tricks, we give him the possibility to make. It doesn't matter if WE can score 5+ tricks before she can score 9. Otherwise ♠Ace was a mistake.
3. if the DTP was 9+ tricks, this is IMPS and we don't care: ♠Ace becomes our best chance.
4. I know RHO very well : she bid a confident 3NT, and is never bluffing in those situations.

So what is declarer trick potential before my lead actually ?

Pard is usually 6-9 HCP, RHO has 20-21 HCP in average. It's not very likely that she has a strong running minor (6 good diamonds are only a remote possibility), and dummy will be disapointing. In average, they rate to have only about 23(24) HCP, and making 9 tricks with such a weak dummy might be taxing.

I decided that playing the hand neutrally was our best chance to set this (actually : to not allow this pushy contract to make). After all they bid 3NT under the gun, and my hand will be much much better than dummy.

Then I saw your answers (wow, I expected about 50/50 for Heart/spade!), and decided :
1. To call partner and apologize for bad judgement
2. to check I was really absolutely wrong by running a simulation.

And the simulation (20000 boards) results were... interesting and unexpected (please don't tell me that sims favour declarer/defense and so on... this is probably a very useful tool to check stuff like this here) :
- ♥7 beats 3NT 67% of the time
- ♠A beats 3NT (only) 66% of the time
- ♣2 beats 3NT 63% of the time (!!)
- ♦x beats 3NT 60% of the time...

At least the simulation tells us :
- that it is very close,
- even the unappealing minor leads are not that bad ;
- the contract is indeed usually a bad one.

As a matter of fact, if you compute the average of Imps gained when leading Heart Vs Spades, the final winner is ♠Ace. Leading ♠Ace will gain 0,10 Imps/board against ♥7 in the long term, because of the influence of over/under-tricks.

Well, actually "IMP *don't* make this simple" (antiquoting fluffy).

Thanx all for your thoughts.