Help
Sometimes one feels compelled to open a piece of crap in first seat because it has such and such points and everyone else will be opening it - so we dutifully do, too, and it almost always goes south from there. Next time, we say to ourselves, we'll listen to our inner voices and pass - but, of course, we never do. We are human, not Vulcan.
Such is not the case with this particular piece of crap. Because RHO opened, we do not have to open our mouths and thus do not feel required to announce to the world that once again we have been dealt a worthless piece of crap. (The big advantage of opening a piece of crap at the level of one - that we might get to play it at the 1-level - is gone. This baby is going to be at least at the 2-level if not higher.)
And therein lies the problem. It is not so much the trouble we may get into at the 2-level, but the trouble we may get into at the 3 or 4 level when partner mistakenly assumes for once in our miserable lives we might actually have a hand worthy of bidding and jacks up the ante accordingly with a penalty double or bid of his own.
But, of course, we never have that hand, partner....Live long and prosper....
scary
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Posted 2010-January-17, 20:12
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
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Posted 2010-January-17, 22:00
Siegmund, on Jan 14 2010, 04:30 AM, said:
For handling this hand type I recommend the West Texas Overcall.
El Paso. Get it? (Runs and hides before the rotten vegetables start flying.)
El Paso. Get it? (Runs and hides before the rotten vegetables start flying.)
u wld get more than vegetables fired at u for this pun in west texas : )
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Posted 2010-January-17, 22:07
aguahombre, on Jan 15 2010, 12:31 PM, said:
I would think that a 4-2 club contract is more likely than "low frequency". And I don't get to ELC into a four-card diamond suit. Hence, "scary" is correct for all non-pass actions.
As Josh said, though, this hand might play well in a 4-2 club fit. I don't have as much practice playing that kind of fit, and would probably screw it up. So, maybe the answer is to double if it is me doubling --but ask partner not to if she has this hand.
As Josh said, though, this hand might play well in a 4-2 club fit. I don't have as much practice playing that kind of fit, and would probably screw it up. So, maybe the answer is to double if it is me doubling --but ask partner not to if she has this hand.
u just reminded me of a vivid experience when i had to play 4 sp on a 4-2 fit, making it for a flat board because the rest of the field is in the cold 4 hrts. Wish i had written that one down : )
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Posted 2010-January-17, 22:22
Winstonm, on Jan 17 2010, 09:12 PM, said:
Sometimes one feels compelled to open a piece of crap in first seat because it has such and such points and everyone else will be opening it - so we dutifully do, too, and it almost always goes south from there.
lol
oh wait, you were serious? .....
Quote
And therein lies the problem. It is not so much the trouble we may get into at the 2-level, but the trouble we may get into at the 3 or 4 level when partner mistakenly assumes for once in our miserable lives we might actually have a hand worthy of bidding and jacks up the ante accordingly with a penalty double or bid of his own.
What in the world is wrong with partner making a penalty double of anything and we have this hand? That's like one of the best things that can happen. We have two aces and more stuff too!
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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Posted 2010-January-18, 05:31
Jlall, on Jan 15 2010, 04:44 PM, said:
crack.
lol at simulating this
lol at simulating this
Why is simulating this a bad idea? Mikeh's method does not seem unreasonable to me: deal a number of hands consistent with the auction and try to decide what might happen after a double or a pass.
I do think that the 12+ HCP requirement is unrealistic in today's world and creates a bias for pass. I tried to redo the simulation to see what I would get, but gave LHO only 10+ points. Out of 40 hands, I had to throw out 10 because they did not look like opening hands to me, so I also ended up with exactly 30 hands. Seven of these were 11-counts and there was one 10-count.
Hands where double will almost certainly do worse than pass: 1
Hands where double will almost certainly do better than pass: 0
Hands where double has the potential of working badly: 2
Hands where double has the potential of working well: 13
Others (irrelevant or too hard to say): 14
Amazing, while Mike found that pass works out best on 12 hands, I found it works best on 1 hand. On not a single hand was I able to say that double would do better than pass, partscore battles might still be won and games might still be found after a pass. On many deals however, I judged that double had a positive potential. On 1 deal you would definitely go for a number against air.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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Posted 2010-January-18, 11:08
Also some partnership things here. If you double, and partner DOES land in a 4-2 fit and it goes badly.. will that have any long term negative effect? 2 top players probably not, but many people will not be in that category and for them the answer to this question is probably relevant.
#47
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Posted 2010-January-19, 04:29
I still find it very surprising that my results were so different from Mike's. I might do a new set later and post all the hands.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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Posted 2010-January-19, 07:48
rogerclee, on Jan 15 2010, 07:34 PM, said:
whereagles, on Jan 15 2010, 11:23 AM, said:
jdonn, on Jan 15 2010, 06:18 PM, said:
Sample size is too small.
Why?
n = 30 is the point where the student t distribution starts to get very close to a standardized normal, i.e. the point where small sample size effects start to dissipate.
30 is also the atomic number of Zinc.
He-he very appropriate analogy. Also, if a sample size of 30 is always enough, why bother letting everyone vote in general elections. Just pick 30 citizens at random.
I agree with Josh's criticism of Mikeh's method but I also can't find of a better way of easily addressing the issue. If GIB or some similar software could be manipulated to chose either pass or dbl with this hand it would be better (and could also give a larger sample size). Using BridgeBrowser is also an option but then we have the problem of defining which hands are sufficiently similar to include, as the BB database probably won't include this exact hand.
But nice that Han did the same analysis.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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Posted 2010-January-19, 09:10
helene_t, on Jan 19 2010, 08:48 AM, said:
rogerclee, on Jan 15 2010, 07:34 PM, said:
whereagles, on Jan 15 2010, 11:23 AM, said:
jdonn, on Jan 15 2010, 06:18 PM, said:
Sample size is too small.
Why?
n = 30 is the point where the student t distribution starts to get very close to a standardized normal, i.e. the point where small sample size effects start to dissipate.
30 is also the atomic number of Zinc.
He-he very appropriate analogy. Also, if a sample size of 30 is always enough, why bother letting everyone vote in general elections. Just pick 30 citizens at random.
I am sure that Helene was not serious, but there is a big difference between sampling and actual results.
Why bother letting everyone vote in a general election when we can just sample 30 voters at random and arrive at the same result? For the obvious reasons (1) everyone is entitled to vote; (2) sampling provides results that are valid up to a certain level of assurance. Given a proper sample size (and 30 may very well be sufficient if the pool from which the sample is drawn is sufficiently random) you can obtain a result that is likely to be correct 95% of the time. But an election is not a 95% of the time type of thing. Elections are a 100% of the time type of thing. Anyone who has played enough bridge or poker or backgammon or any other game which involves probabilities can tell you that their 95% chances fail more than 20% of the time (they do - just ask them). So, every vote must be counted. Just ask Al Franken.
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Posted 2010-January-19, 09:22
rogerclee, on Jan 14 2010, 05:50 AM, said:
r/w imps
Ax AT432 QTxx Qx
(1S) ?
Ax AT432 QTxx Qx
(1S) ?
There are many threads like this, but what do they accomplish?
We are presented with a "borderline" hand and asked to decide what to do
Some players will pass, "we are Vul, the hand has weaknesses"
Some players prefer to show the 5cM, even if it is AT432
Some prefer to double, even tho one suit is Qx
Some will run simulations etc
We rarely, if ever, get to see the complete hand
My personal view is that pass might be safer than any bid, but that is my "style" and I do not expect others to be influenced by that. So what are we left with?
We might as well open a new Poll asking:-
"Do you always bid in borderline situations? Y/N"
I predict that the answers will be meaningless
Tony
Hanging on in quiet desperation, is the English way (Pink Floyd)
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Posted 2010-January-19, 09:47
hanp, on Jan 18 2010, 06:31 AM, said:
Jlall, on Jan 15 2010, 04:44 PM, said:
crack.
lol at simulating this
lol at simulating this
Why is simulating this a bad idea? Mikeh's method does not seem unreasonable to me: deal a number of hands consistent with the auction and try to decide what might happen after a double or a pass.
Because, eventually all you're left with are your assumptions on what might happen after you double. And there are a ton of assumptions. You really went through all the hands, and saw how the play might be slightly altered by doubling, to the point where one declarer guesses something and one doesn't or vice versa? Or how the lead might be altered? And there is just so much guessing in the auction that might lead to later differences in the lead/play/bidding. And eventually you still just have a sample of what might happen if you double vs hanp, not what might happen if you double vs an average opponent, because some of the mistakes that will occur you will not realize might occur. In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this.
The fact that you and mikeh got wildly different answers from doing the same simulation is simply because you have different views on what would happen after you doubled. I think this is pretty useless. I even think if you and I were to analyze the same set of hands that you simulated, we would have quite different views about what would happen on these hands after a double and a pass.
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Posted 2010-January-19, 10:03
Jlall, on Jan 19 2010, 04:47 PM, said:
In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this.
In general, when playing on bbo, I have 3 opponents. I suppose the odds are still in my favour as only one opponent is my partner.
Tony
Hanging on in quiet desperation, is the English way (Pink Floyd)
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Posted 2010-January-19, 10:09
Jlall, on Jan 19 2010, 10:47 AM, said:
hanp, on Jan 18 2010, 06:31 AM, said:
Jlall, on Jan 15 2010, 04:44 PM, said:
crack.
lol at simulating this
lol at simulating this
Why is simulating this a bad idea? Mikeh's method does not seem unreasonable to me: deal a number of hands consistent with the auction and try to decide what might happen after a double or a pass.
Because, eventually all you're left with are your assumptions on what might happen after you double. And there are a ton of assumptions. You really went through all the hands, and saw how the play might be slightly altered by doubling, to the point where one declarer guesses something and one doesn't or vice versa? Or how the lead might be altered? And there is just so much guessing in the auction that might lead to later differences in the lead/play/bidding. And eventually you still just have a sample of what might happen if you double vs hanp, not what might happen if you double vs an average opponent, because some of the mistakes that will occur you will not realize might occur. In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this.
The fact that you and mikeh got wildly different answers from doing the same simulation is simply because you have different views on what would happen after you doubled. I think this is pretty useless. I even think if you and I were to analyze the same set of hands that you simulated, we would have quite different views about what would happen on these hands after a double and a pass.
I also think, as absolutely fair-minded and honest as I know Mike and Han would both try to be, it's an absolutely impossible task when you enter with an already strong opinion (like Mike had) of the correct action. That means in his mind he knows why he believes it is the correct action and he won't be able to get around the subconcious bias for those things to take place.
I don't mean a thought process like "I believe pass is best therefore I will analyze in a way that makes pass best." I mean "I believe pass is best because X might happen if you double, and look if you double here X might happen!"
I mean look, han and mike are both really good at bridge. And they didn't just get different results, they got wildly different, totally opposite results. It has to be a combination of bridge styles and subconcious bias (and han not limiting opening hands to 12), what else can it be?
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#54
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Posted 2010-January-19, 10:22
I say if someone wants to do this, run 30 hands (with han's opening bid requirements), post them, and let us duke them out in the thread.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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Posted 2010-January-19, 10:58
Ask and ye shall receive.
I already have a reasonable model for a 1S opener in my library, so it was child's play for me to create 30 hands fixing one hand as the OP's hand and giving RHO a 1S opener. Let the analysis begin!
I already have a reasonable model for a 1S opener in my library, so it was child's play for me to create 30 hands fixing one hand as the OP's hand and giving RHO a 1S opener. Let the analysis begin!
(1) S: 86543 H: 875 D: AK C: J32 S: 9 S: KQJT2 H: K H: QJ96 D: J9873 D: 52 C: KT9864 C: A7 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (2) S: 862 H: 87 D: J8753 C: A63 S: Q9 S: KJT543 H: J5 H: KQ96 D: A2 D: K9 C: KT98742 C: J S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (3) S: Q5 H: KJ75 D: J975 C: T93 S: 8643 S: KJT92 H: 6 H: Q98 D: 2 D: AK83 C: KJ87642 C: A S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (4) S: J6 H: KQ7 D: K72 C: JT963 S: Q983 S: KT542 H: J985 H: 6 D: AJ53 D: 98 C: 8 C: AK742 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (5) S: KJ8 H: 6 D: KJ93 C: JT843 S: T9 S: Q65432 H: J9875 H: KQ D: 852 D: A7 C: A97 C: K62 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (6) S: K52 H: 765 D: 93 C: AK762 S: 843 S: QJT96 H: KQJ98 H: --- D: J85 D: AK72 C: 98 C: JT43 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (7) S: T92 H: K975 D: J987 C: KT S: 43 S: KQJ865 H: J8 H: Q6 D: 32 D: AK5 C: A976432 C: J8 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (8) S: KQ42 H: K86 D: 8 C: KJT92 S: 96 S: JT853 H: 5 H: QJ97 D: K97532 D: AJ C: 8763 C: A4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (9) S: KT H: 975 D: K987 C: 8764 S: 654 S: QJ9832 H: J8 H: KQ6 D: A32 D: J5 C: KJT92 C: A3 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (10) S: 94 H: KQJ986 D: J C: AT74 S: J852 S: KQT63 H: 7 H: 5 D: A9873 D: K52 C: 983 C: KJ62 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (11) S: JT H: QJ86 D: KJ32 C: 982 S: K542 S: Q9863 H: 5 H: K97 D: 87 D: A95 C: KJT763 C: A4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (12) S: T3 H: Q95 D: K732 C: JT98 S: QJ S: K986542 H: K876 H: J D: J85 D: A9 C: A764 C: K32 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (13) S: 84 H: J76 D: J9 C: AJT743 S: Q9 S: KJT6532 H: 95 H: KQ8 D: A875 D: K32 C: K9862 C: --- S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (14) S: Q8643 H: Q8 D: 98 C: K932 S: 5 S: KJT92 H: J65 H: K97 D: AKJ532 D: 7 C: T74 C: AJ86 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (15) S: 63 H: Q976 D: A53 C: J972 S: T984 S: KQJ52 H: J8 H: K5 D: K972 D: J8 C: A86 C: KT43 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (16) S: 9 H: J987 D: J982 C: KJ63 S: KT2 S: QJ86543 H: KQ5 H: 6 D: 753 D: AK C: A982 C: T74 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (17) S: 653 H: J5 D: J97 C: KJT83 S: JT9 S: KQ842 H: K9876 H: Q D: K5 D: A832 C: A76 C: 942 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (18) S: KQ9 H: KQJ5 D: 972 C: 973 S: J2 S: T86543 H: 986 H: 7 D: KJ853 D: A C: T42 C: AKJ86 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (19) S: 53 H: K5 D: K3 C: AKT8743 S: 9642 S: KQJT8 H: QJ98 H: 76 D: J5 D: A9872 C: 962 C: J S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (20) S: QT82 H: Q D: K9 C: AJT963 S: K6 S: J9543 H: 865 H: KJ97 D: J8532 D: A7 C: 874 C: K2 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (21) S: JT2 H: 75 D: 97 C: AKJT32 S: Q85 S: K9643 H: K98 H: QJ6 D: J8532 D: AK C: 94 C: 876 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (22) S: 9632 H: QJ87 D: 73 C: 643 S: T4 S: KQJ85 H: 96 H: K5 D: K952 D: AJ8 C: AJ987 C: KT2 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (23) S: T32 H: 87 D: J9853 C: A97 S: 94 S: KQJ865 H: QJ5 H: K96 D: K2 D: A7 C: JT6432 C: K8 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (24) S: K92 H: QJ875 D: AKJ2 C: 3 S: Q86 S: JT543 H: 96 H: K D: 983 D: 75 C: J8762 C: AKT94 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (25) S: J65 H: 8765 D: K975 C: J6 S: QT9 S: K8432 H: QJ9 H: K D: J83 D: A2 C: 8742 C: AKT93 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (26) S: T643 H: Q98 D: 932 C: A43 S: J9 S: KQ852 H: KJ7 H: 65 D: 875 D: AKJ C: T8762 C: KJ9 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (27) S: T H: 9865 D: A9752 C: KJ4 S: 953 S: KQJ8642 H: QJ7 H: K D: K8 D: J3 C: T8762 C: A93 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (28) S: JT65 H: J9 D: 72 C: A9872 S: 9 S: KQ8432 H: K8765 H: Q D: 983 D: AKJ5 C: JT64 C: K3 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (29) S: Q H: QJ986 D: AJ95 C: 943 S: J864 S: KT9532 H: 75 H: K D: 732 D: K8 C: JT82 C: AK76 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (30) S: J862 H: J96 D: KJ5 C: J76 S: T3 S: KQ954 H: K87 H: Q5 D: 2 D: A9873 C: AKT9832 C: 4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 --------------------------
This post has been edited by eyhung: 2010-January-19, 11:52
Eugene Hung
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Posted 2010-January-19, 11:03
1♠ parameters: 5+ spades, spades longest suit or tied for longest, rule of 20, 2 quick tricks, will not be 5332 with 15-17 HCP or 20-21 HCP. Maximum is 21 HCP.
Eugene Hung
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Posted 2010-January-19, 11:09
In soon-to-be epic thread.
OK
bed
bed
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Posted 2010-January-19, 11:15
Awesome, I'm gonna get to this later!
Um can you number the hands in the original post so we can refer to them? Thanks friend.
Um can you number the hands in the original post so we can refer to them? Thanks friend.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#59
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Posted 2010-January-19, 11:37
Take the first one for example. Without the dbl, opps probably bid 1♠-1NT-2♥-3♣-pass, off 1.
With the double, is West going to bid 2♣? If so, is North going to dbl?
If not, is North going to pass, bid 1NT, bid 2♣, or to bid 2♥? Etc. I think some 20 different scores could result.
With the double, is West going to bid 2♣? If so, is North going to dbl?
If not, is North going to pass, bid 1NT, bid 2♣, or to bid 2♥? Etc. I think some 20 different scores could result.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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Posted 2010-January-19, 11:52
jdonn, on Jan 19 2010, 10:15 AM, said:
Um can you number the hands in the original post so we can refer to them? Thanks friend.
Hands now numbered.
Eugene Hung