[barryallen]

Scoring: IMP

contract 3NT by south

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How would you play this hand on the following?

a. on the lead of the ♦6
b. on the lead of the ♥4

Just a straight forward analysis upon how you see the best line to play the hand?

[Dirk Kuijt]

Since I don't play the dummy very well, no doubt someone will fix my mistakes, but:

On a heart lead, win A, cash 1 high Club and AQ of Spades. Cross to the diamond ace and play king of spades. If the spades have come in (3-3 or short J), you have nine tricks. If the spades aren't good, then play for clubs to be 2-2, or, if West dropped an honor, finesse East for the other honor.

A diamond lead hurts your transportation, so, you will have to win the Ace (perhaps after a holdup), again cash one high club, and play the AQ of spades. However, this time you have to overtake the Q with the K. So, if the jack of spades is short, you make the hand, otherwise you have to play clubs as before.

[kenrexford]

I would follow the basic line proposed by Dirk. However, I don't know about the holdup if I get a diamond lead. If I win the diamond Ace and then play a club toward the Ace, I might find out that clubs are 4-0, with RHO having four clubs. If that is the case, then I might be better off simply playing the spade Queen to the King and forcing RHO to split club honors. Now, if diamonds are 4-4, I get up to 9 tricks. That line seems better than playing for a drop of Jx in spades, I think.

The problem with the duck is that it allows a switch to the other red suit, which is a further liability. Of course, against that is the chance that they don't find the switch immediately, which could help me if diamonds are actually 6-2.

The same analysis works on a heart lead.

[Fluffy]

hold up the heart lead and see if the 3 appears before commiting to something, you might jsut have 4 losers and be creating the 5th by playing spades

[barryallen]

The replies cover the all aspects of the problem, but what surprised me were the odds on certain lines. On a ♥ lead, cashing the ♠ in hand, crossing to the ♦A and looking to drop the ♠J gives you a whopping 77% chance, then throw in the back up of the ♣ being 2-2 and you are up to around 85% chance of success.

But that gets you a flat bottom with both red suits coming in 4-4 and the successful line being to cash out the ♣'s. Just surprised the ♠ line was not taken up and what is missing?

[Fluffy]

as i said, duck the heart and see if RHO returns the ♥3 before commiting.

[barryallen]

Fluffy, on Jan 14 2010, 08:54 AM, said:

as i said, duck the heart and see if RHO returns the ♥3 before commiting.

The only problem being that a ♦ switch denies you the opportunity of being able to cash the ♠ and possibly dropping the J. So yes, on a ♥ continuation may give you that option.

The main point being that knowing that line gives you 1/2 the odds of the alternative, would you take that chance?

[Fluffy]

yes I would.

BTW where did you get that 77%? I don't remember the exact % of spades coming in, but it was around 50% I think

[bid_em_up]

(J, Jx, Jxx) in either hand = 60.82%

At least, if the percentages on this site are accurate:

http://www.automaton.../en/OddsTbl.htm

[Fluffy]

I feel dumb, this is such a simple combo and I always though Jx or J was a much lower % than it is. This explains my tendency of getting bottoms finesing jacks.

[barryallen]

bid_em_up, on Jan 14 2010, 10:02 AM, said:

(J, Jx, Jxx) in either hand = 60.82%

At least, if the percentages on this site are accurate:

http://www.automaton.../en/OddsTbl.htm

Yes, that is correct. I must have input the incorrect cards. I could not understand until now the preference for the alternative lines. Act in haste, repent in leisure.

On the basis of the ♥2 being played on trick 2, you then have the option of playing the ♠AQ and giving up a ♣ or taking a single ♠ and crashing the top ♣.

[mikeh]

barryallen, on Jan 14 2010, 08:48 AM, said:

But that gets you a flat bottom with both red suits coming in 4-4 and the successful line being to cash out the ♣'s.

the problem was posted as imp scoring so who cares about flat bottoms? At least, in the bridge sense.

[gnasher]

kenrexford, on Jan 13 2010, 01:10 AM, said:

I would follow the basic line proposed by Dirk.  However, I don't know about the holdup if I get a diamond lead.  If I win the diamond Ace and then play a club toward the Ace, I might find out that clubs are 4-0, with RHO having four clubs.  If that is the case, then I might be better off simply playing the spade Queen to the King and forcing RHO to split club honors.  Now, if diamonds are 4-4, I get up to 9 tricks.

We haven't been given the bidding, but let's assume that we've bid both black suits and neither red suit. If LHO has a club void and only four diamonds, presumably he's specifically 5=4=4=0 with more attractive diamonds than hearts. How likely is that?

[Free]

Ducking is definitely wrong, whatever they lead. You should assume you'll lose a ♣ trick (otherwise you have no problem) so if you duck and they switch to the other red suit you'll be down. So whatever opps lead, take the ace and go for the ♣s.

The fact that opps sever your communications in ♠ isn't a primairy issue, the aim is to make our contract. If you lose a ♣ trick, you'll always have to hope the lead suit splits 4-4 anyway, so overtricks will be hard to achieve.

[Fluffy]

Free you seem to be ignoring that we can make 9 tricks without making more than 2 in clubs

[Free]

Fluffy, on Jan 15 2010, 02:34 PM, said:

Free you seem to be ignoring that we can make 9 tricks without making more than 2 in clubs

No I'm not, but I'll get back on that when I have more time.

[gnasher]

We can play for the suit they've led to be 4-4:
- On a diamond lead, win and cash ♠AQ, overtaking if the jack was singleton, or doubleton onside. With no spade miracle, duck a club. Holding up the first trick would obviously be wrong.
- On a heart lead, win, cash ♠AQ to check for Jx in either hand, and then duck a club. Again, a holdup would be a mistake.

Or we can play for the suit led not to be 4-4, using Dirk Kuijt's line of testing spades and falling back on the clubs. If we do this:
- On a heart lead, we should definitely take the first one, because a diamond switch would force us to overtake the spades.
- On a diamond lead, we can afford to duck the first one, perhaps gaining when LHO has something like xxx Qxx KJxxxx x

The choice of lines isn't helped by the different spot card leads. ♥4 is more likely to be from a 4-card suit than ♦6, but on a heart lead the second line is more likely to work.