[gwnn]

AQxx
AKQxx
x
AJx

KJxx
xx
AJxxx
xx

1♥-1♠
4♦-4♠*
4NT-5♥
5NT-6♠-end

*=knowing how happy partner generally is to upgrade his hands.

small spade lead.

[helene_t]

Lot's of techniques to consider (x-ruff? ruffing the diamonds high? Playing clubs for KQ onside, something that is slightly more likely than the normal 24% due to the trump lead?) but I will go for a pedestrian plan. Win the opening lead in the hand, play three top hearts discarding a club. To be continued ....

[whereagles]

I'd probably take the lead in hand and duck a club. Another trump comes back and I take in dummy. Now ruff a club low and a heart high. Back to dummy in a diamond ruff low, pull last trump and dummy is high.

Loses to trumps 4-1 or hearts 5-2. Else it makes (or I made a mistake lol).

[ArtK78]

whereagles, on Nov 30 2009, 07:51 AM, said:

I'd probably take the lead in hand and duck a club. Another trump comes back and I take in dummy. Now ruff a club low and a heart high. Back to dummy in a diamond ruff low, pull last trump and dummy is high.

Loses to trumps 4-1 or hearts 5-2. Else it makes (or I made a mistake lol).

I doubt that hearts are 5-2 with 6 outstanding.

[mikeh]

Anyone else look at the auction? North opened 1♥, splintered and then bid keycard after partner bid 4♠. So S could easily have held xxxx x KQJx xxxx.

Was the 4♠ call in tempo?

If it was, North is a lunatic. If it wasn't, then North should be passing 4♠.

[gwnn]

I agree with that mikeh. I think my 4♠ bid was in tempo but I don't remember exactly. However, I would have been interested to know how you'd have played it, I was happy to see your name as "last poster", but then no.

[mikeh]

As to the play: I don't like the idea of 3 top hearts, pitching a club, since there is a high risk that they will ruff in and be able to lead another trump...leaving me with only 2 trumps with which to ruff one heart and 2 clubs. The odds of the short heart having the long spade seem to be slightly over 50%, and the odds of hearts being 4-2 are significant.

I prefer to rely on trumps behaving, so I win in hand and lead a club. I doubt that anyone I usually play against will find, at the table, the play of the K or Q of clubs lacking the other honour, so if LHO goes in with either, I will play him for the other. In that case, I cash a top trump in dummy...if they are 3-2, I finish the trump, ruff a low heart after cashing 2 tops and lead a club up.

I will congratulate any LHO who pops a lone club honour from Hx(x)(x) etc. I am not sure I can handle the hand if LHO has Hx in clubs anyway...not without scooping his hand, anyway. So I might as well play him for KQ(x)(x) etc.

If trump are 4=1, I think I need hearts 3=3...win the trump in dummy, since that is best when trump are 3-2, and now I am stuck...I cannot both ruff a heart in hand and lead a club up, since LHO wins and plays a diamond and I can't get to dummy without burning my last trump.

More commonly, I duck the club and back comes a trump.

The analysis becomes long-winded because either opp could win this club. I assume that a trump comes back. I also assume that my spots are such that they don't grow up even with these trump leads.

If trump are 3-2, win in hand, cross in clubs, ruff a club low (do this before playing hearts to avoid someone with 2=3 in the rounded suits pitching a club) and then 2 top hearts, ruff high, diamond A, diamond ruff and pull trump...making on 3-2 trumps, 4-2/3-3 hearts and no club overruff.

If trump are 4-1, win in hand, cash two hearts, ruff a heart low (needs long spades to hold 3 or 4 hearts), cross in trump, pull trump, run hearts....needs same hand to have KQ in both minors or clubs 6-2 and the long clubs to have KQ diamonds, as well as hearts 3=3 or 4=2 with long hearts holding 4 trumps. Maybe LHO is xxxx xxxx xxx xx and rho is x xx KQxx KQxxxx...of course either opp could and should foil this line at trick 3.

phew....this is why I don't always respond to 'how to play this hand'. This is how I would think at the table (I'm not always fast )...and I don't claim that this is best...only that this seems best to me.

[gnasher]

If trumps turn out to be 4-1, I think it's better to ruff a club and play for hearts 3-3.

Finding all four minor honours in the short-trump hand is
  12/21 x 11/20 x 10/19 x 9/18 = 8%

Finding hearts 3-3 is
  12/21 x 11/20 x 10/19 x 9/18 * 8/17 * 7/17 x 6C3 =32%

[nige1]

I now agree with Gnasher.