[vuroth]

Scoring: MP

1♠ (P) 4♥ (X)
4♠ (P) P (P)

---

6♠ looks very close to 50%. Assign the blame.

[kfay]

I'll begin by saying I wouldn't want to be in this slam. 50% slams at matchpoints are terrible propositions. They leave you in a position to either get a very good score or a very bad score.

Good matchpoint actions leave you in a position to either get a good score or an average score, or maybe a very good score or an average minus.


The one-under splinter is your strongest splinter. Since you've got no room to maneuver it's generally stronger than, say, 1♠-4♣.

However, this hand is just too strong. Give partner A, A, K and it's already looking playable, and he won't count his ♥A as a great value since you splintered there. AK K and you're starting to approach icy. Prime cards are good but just imagine the hands where slam is good and whether partner will chance a go with them, the answer is they probably won't.

So I blame North for reaching the right contract.

[andy_h]

50% slam, nothing to get worked up by.
However, what is the strength of 4♥? Any GF? so it could range from 10-17?

[vuroth]

andy_h, on Dec 1 2009, 10:19 AM, said:

50% slam, nothing to get worked up by.
However, what is the strength of 4♥? Any GF? so it could range from 10-17?

For splinter, I generally worry more about combined range. 22 is too low for splinter. 25-28 seems about right.

[Free]

<50% slam so no blame. It's the percentage action...

[pooltuna]

vuroth, on Dec 1 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

1♠ (P) 4♥ (X)
4♠ (P) P (P)

---

6♠ looks very close to 50%.  Assign the blame.

North 99.99->∞ %

his hand is too good for a splinter

[gwnn]

s bid normally, n didn't bid very intelligently

[aguahombre]

Agree with everyone. The slam is an "oh-well" if it makes, and I am not sure proper bidding would have done any better. But, to Splinter with about 18 dummy points is not a good idea. In 2/1 this hand could bid around the singleton to show the shape and extra strength. Then, perhaps the duplication of heart shortnesses would make opener decide not to cooperate for slam.

Edit: North could just take over from the start with AK of clubs instead of AQ.

[ArtK78]

North underbid his hand. So congratulate him on getting to the right contract in the wrong way.

I have a way of making stronger than game forcing splinters. Even if North shows a better than game forcing splinter, South does not have a move. Since the slam is marginally less than 50%, that seems right.

North's hand is very strong opposite a 1♠ opening bid. Rather than tell by making a splinter bid, he should probably take control of the hand by whatever method the partnership has available to it. I would use Jacoby (which, in my favorite structure, is a 3♣ call). When South shows a singleton heart, North will continue to move, but must tread carefully, as a singleton facing a singleton is not good news.

After getting the news about the singleton heart, North may just use RKCB for lack of anything better to do. [I am not saying that using RKCB is right here, but it is certainly an option] This will probably result in bidding 6♠. When the club finesse loses, the OP will come back and ask to ATB for overbidding to the marginal slam.

[kenrexford]

I'm not so sure that the slam is at or lower than 50% in the abstract.

If the lead is a heart, then the slam appears to be a pure 50-50 venture, in the abstract. However, a heart lead is not a 100% proposition, in the abstract. In context of a double of 4♥, it might be close, but doubles of splinters usually just suggest a save, not necessarily a lead. A trump lead might be made, at least some of the time.

On any lead but a heart, Declarer can pull trumps, run diamonds to ditch one diamond and one club, and then take the finesse for the overtrick. If the finesse fails, Declarer has plenty of trumps left to clean up, even on a 3-0 trump split.

So, in theory, this slam is much better than 50-50.

Add to that a different auction, where perhaps a heart lead is less obvious, and the slam looks even better.

My auction, using my methods (assuming passes by the opponents throughout -- an admittedly unsafe assumption):

1♠-P-2♣-P-
2♦-P-2♠-P-
3♥*-P-3♠**-P-
3NT***-P-4♣****-P-
4♠*****


*Two of the top three spades (for bypassing 2NT), no club A/K/Q (for bypassing 3♣), not two of the top three diamonds (for bypassing 3♦), heart control
**the third spade control
***serious contextual interest
****two of the top three clubs
*****no diamond control (not the Ace or King), not first-round heart control

At this point, Responder knows that Opener has serious contextual interest with already-announced spades, only second-round heart control, no club card for partner, and no Ace or King of diamonds. Hence, he MUST have length in diamonds and/or spades.

Responder can fairly well visualize the hand. The slam makes if Opener has a stiff club (5251), or a sixth diamond, or if the club hook works, or on any lead except a heart.

Thus, with impure information, Responder would likely bid the slam. In theory, Responder could ask more questions to find out where the stiff is or if a sixth diamond exists, but even reducing out those options leaves the slam at worst on a hook or a lead, which seems better than 50-50.

Add in heart interference, and the dynamic changes.

[vuroth]

I was north. I almost bid 2C, but with 15 HCP, opposite a minimum opener it seemed like slam was going to depend on partner's heart holding. Granted, I have a 5th trump, but we already have the queen, and I'm certainly not going to count distribution points when considering a splinter.

Anyways, I thought it was close between a splinter and 2C raise, and I thought splinter would be more descriptive. Maybe if I had more confidence my 2/1 auctions, I'd be able to see how it could describe my hand that well.

Thanks guys. Had a feeling I was to blame.

[ggwhiz]

I think the splinter chews up WAY too much room on these cards and prefer Jacoby 2nt.

The fact that you have the 5th trump means slam is odds on over a stiff club, diamond Queen and quality spades.

Unlucky about the matching stiff hearts, the only reason slam is just 50%. I can't comment much on the follow ups to 2nt since our agreement is that we do NOT show stiff Aces or Kings as shortness. We probably propell ourselves to 6 because of that, shrug at down 1 and move on.

Might avoid a heart lead though.

[mike777]

vuroth, on Dec 1 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

1♠ (P) 4♥ (X)
4♠ (P) P (P)

---

6♠ looks very close to 50%.  Assign the blame.

To give you an alternative, playing Bergen 2nt gf raises, splinters are limited to 12 hcp at most.


btw on a nonh lead, great slam.


the bidding might go:


1s=2nt
3c=3d
3nt=4nt
5h=6s



2nt=gf raise
3c=nonminimum
3d=tell me more
3nt=stiff h

[kenrexford]

Actually, a Jacoby 2NT auction works fairly well, on this hand, the way I like Jacoby 2NT sequences:

1♠-2NT-
4♦*

Five spades, five diamonds, and a stiff in hearts

Not as good, but it works OK.

[ONEferBRID]

kenrexford, on Dec 1 2009, 04:03 PM, said:

Actually, a Jacoby 2NT auction works fairly well, on this hand, the way I like Jacoby 2NT sequences:

1♠-2NT-
4♦*

Five spades, five diamonds, and a stiff in hearts

Not as good, but it works OK.

How do you show ♦ as the 2nd 5 card suit with shortness in ♣ ( with one rebid ? )

I'm aware of 4♦ showing a 2nd 5 card suit -- with shortness in ♣ "or" ♥... but not specifically one over the other.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

#1 Responders hand is too strong for the 4H splinter.
Responder should go either the slow route via 2C, or via 2NT.
#2 The sign of is reasonable, you have dublication, you have wastage,
you stop.
#3 Responders hand would like to make another move, but should not
by pass 4S.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[kenrexford]

ONEferBRID, on Dec 1 2009, 07:28 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 1 2009, 04:03 PM, said:

Actually, a Jacoby 2NT auction works fairly well, on this hand, the way I like Jacoby 2NT sequences:

1♠-2NT-
4♦*

Five spades, five diamonds, and a stiff in hearts

Not as good, but it works OK.

How do you show ♦ as the 2nd 5 card suit with shortness in ♣ ( with one rebid ? )

I'm aware of 4♦ showing a 2nd 5 card suit -- with shortness in ♣ "or" ♥... but not specifically one over the other.

1♠-2NT
3♣(shortness somewhere)-3♦(where?)
4♦(5-5 spades and diamonds, low shortness, meaning clubs)

Could reverse these, with 3♣ being delayed for high shortness and immediate jump low shortness.