Posted 2009-November-20, 19:54
Win SA and lead a low trump. If LHO plays low you have a guess; if he started with Hx, you can make an overtrick by playing the A, eliminating spades and diamonds, and throwing him in with a trump. If he started with KQx, you can make an overtrick by finessing the J followed by a similar endplay.
Assuming you think it's possible that LHO made a vul. 2-level overcall with something like JTxx Kx x AQT9xx, it seems right to play for that and go up with the A on the first round. With KQx LHO could have prevented the chance of an overtrick by splitting his honors, and even if you go up with the ace you can still make the contract. So his low trump on the first round from KQx would have been a no-win play.
1♦-(P)-1♥-(2♣)
3♥-(P)-4♥-All Pass