[PrecisionL]

aguahombre, on Jul 4 2009, 12:02 PM, said:

Anyone run an analysis based on opening 1C with balanced 44 in minors and 33 in minors(with a 15-17 NT)? This eliminates 2344 and 3244 from the relevent cases where 1D is opened.  1345, 3145, and 0445 with less than reverse strength added to the relevent cases?  Whether you approve of the methods or not, lots of people do, and I think this changes the percentage of 1D openings which are exactly 4432, are opening bids, and are too weak to open in NOTRUMP.

Eliminating (32)-4-4 removes 3.6 % of hands from opening 1♦ and raises the precentage of 1♦ being only 3-cards from 5.6 % (my previous post, recalculated to 5.9 %) to 6.8 %.

f(3♦  only) = 1.667 / (28.23 - 3.6) = 6.77 %

Larry (Who opens 1♦ with minimum hands and 4-4 or 4-5 or 5-4 in the minors.) [This is a statement, not a question.]

Edited 7/4/09 7:06 pm EDT (Sorry about the confusing ending to my unedited post)

[fred]

For those of you quoting odds, how are you computing odds of hand types in which both distribution and HCPs are defined?

To the best of my knowledge there is no easy way to do this using pen and paper (with or without the help of a calculator). Of course it is not that hard to write a computer program to do the math.

Larry - there exists a significant minority of experts in North America who favor opening 1D on some minimum hands that include 4-5 in the minors. Eric Kokish is a strong believer in this approach. I tend to do this myself with 0445 distribution and (very) occasionally with other shapes if my diamonds are especially strong and if my clubs are especially weak.

No doubt there are other parts of the world where people bid this way as well, but as far as I can tell this practice is considered bizarre in much of Europe (because it is considered "normal" to rebid 5-card minors - something that experts on this side of the Atlantic tend to try to avoid).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[PrecisionL]

Fred,

I have many spread sheets and have calculated the frequency of various opening bids allowing for distribution and hcp for many years. Before bridge odds complete by Frost et al, I calculated with a mechanical calculator the hcp up to about 24 hcp. Math was my minor in my Engineering studies.

[fred]

PrecisionL, on Jul 4 2009, 11:10 PM, said:

Fred,

I have many spread sheets and have calculated the frequency of various opening bids allowing for distribution and hcp for many years.  Before bridge odds complete by Frost et al, I calculated with a mechanical calculator the hcp up to about 24 hcp.  Math was my minor in my Engineering studies.

Thanks for explaining, Larry. Cool that you were able to create spreadsheets that can solve these problems

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Mbodell]

fred, on Jul 4 2009, 11:12 AM, said:

For those of you quoting odds, how are you computing odds of hand types in which both distribution and HCPs are defined?

To the best of my knowledge there is no easy way to do this using pen and paper (with or without the help of a calculator). Of course it is not that hard to write a computer program to do the math.

Computer for me. I was basing mine above on two different 1,000,000 deal hands (looking only at South for convenience on each hand) using the deal program. I was opening constructively any hand that was extended rule of 21 (HCP + 2 longest suits + QT >= 21) and then removing the other bids like 1NT and 2♣ and what not. I was assuming that xy45 was opened 1♣ and that ♦ was opened for all xy44 and clubs for all (43)33 that weren't a 1nt, 2nt or 2♣ strength. My second run was putting the 2245 into 1nt when in range, but (13)45 and out of nt 2245 would be bidding clubs. If you open 1♦ with those then you lower the expected number of diamonds in a 1♦ opening, but also lower the number of times it is exactly 3.

[Lobowolf]

Mbodell, on Jul 2 2009, 08:02 PM, said:

I'd, personally, rather have 4432 in the 1♣ because then I know the 1♦ is 4+ and the 2 card club suit since the clubs are always suspect.

In that small percentage of hands in which the 1♦ opener is 4=4=3=2, the auction often clarifies immediately by not supporting responder's major, e.g.:

1♦-1♠;
1NT

Opener doesn't have 4 spades, so he's got at least 4 diamonds.

1♣ isn't 100% pure, but a 1♣ opener promising 3 usually has 4 clubs, and has 5 clubs more often than it has 3.

[mycroft]

doesn't work as well when responder bids diamonds, though. Or 1D-(2S)-"can I raise diamonds with 4 random?" (the answer to that is yes, of course, and play the Moysian the rare times it happens. Really, it's rarer that "you" are worrying about).

I guess I shouldn't worry about playing Majors 5, Diamonds 4, because the same rare time partner could have two. But you do have to think, even discounting that, when it goes 1C-(2S)-"can I raise..."?