[se12sam]

Scoring: MP

Your side reaches 3NT by South with no opposition bidding

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LHO leads the ♥2 (4th best) which East wins with the ♥Ace; and continues at trick two with ♥J to your King and West's 5 as you discard a diamond from dummy.
At trick 3, you cash the ♣Ace to which West plays the ♣10 and East the ♣5. What next at MPs? Are percentages for any specific line of play worth the risk?

EDIT: Apologies! This is probably a useless example. Sorry to waste your time!

[Jlall]

Why would you play them for a stiff club after the H2 lead?

[jdonn]

I wouldn't play him for a stiff club, but I don't think his falsecard from JTx is anywhere near automatic since it simply blows a trick in the suit if his partner has singleton king. I have no idea if players would realize that quickly enough or what the odds are in practice of a player taking a chance on the falsecard anyway, and I know here I was just play the king of clubs next.

[kenrexford]

If I win the heart King, play the club Ace, and then cross to dummy, this gets messy.

I can get there once easily with a diamond to the King. I then can take the club finesse, cash another club, and have the clubs up in dummy. But, now my only entry to dummy is the spade Ace, where I would have to overtake a spade winner. That only gets me to 10 tricks (two spades, five clubs, one heart, and two diamonds). I get to 9 easily by just cashing winners.

My only note beyond that is that I should probably have ducked the second heart, to rectify somewhat.

[jdonn]

kenrexford, on Jun 9 2009, 04:14 PM, said:

My only note beyond that is that I should probably have ducked the second heart, to rectify somewhat.

LOL

[xcurt]

When posting hands please give the auction no matter how ugly - it matters.

We are ahead of other tables where west might lead a spade (even if we bid the suit, he could have JT97 or so and the auction might have been 1D-1S; 2N-3N), since those declarers will probably safety the diamond into the west hand to ensure 11 tricks.

[kenrexford]

jdonn, on Jun 9 2009, 04:22 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Jun 9 2009, 04:14 PM, said:

My only note beyond that is that I should probably have ducked the second heart, to rectify somewhat.

LOL

Yeah, good point. I was in a hurry leaving the office with my wife squawking about being hungry.

I have 11 tricks off the top if clubs split 3-2 and, therefore, the hand is rectified already for a diamond-spade squeeze if clubs cooperate.

If clubs do not cooperate, I end up with 9 top tricks, minus the Ace from trick one, leaving three cards worth of depth. One duck leaves me two tricks off my goal (on the bad split), meaning that the rectification only works if I have someone caught in a progressive spade-diamond-club squeeze. I haven't worked out whether I can handle any pitch from some person so progressively squeezed, but the chances of the long-club person having the long spade and both diamond honors (or the only protected diamond honor) seems remote enough to just play for clubs being 3-2.

Then again, maybe the "clubs split poorly but the progfressive squeeze works" line is the sexier potential story? LOL

[kenrexford]

xcurt, on Jun 9 2009, 06:30 PM, said:

When posting hands please give the auction no matter how ugly - it matters.

We are ahead of other tables where west might lead a spade (even if we bid the suit, he could have JT97 or so and the auction might have been 1D-1S; 2N-3N), since those declarers will probably safety the diamond into the west hand to ensure 11 tricks.

How does that necessarily place us ahead? If clubs split poorly, those people will possibly set up diamonds for 11 tricks where we end up with 9.

[xcurt]

kenrexford, on Jun 9 2009, 06:36 PM, said:

xcurt, on Jun 9 2009, 06:30 PM, said:

When posting hands please give the auction no matter how ugly - it matters.

We are ahead of other tables where west might lead a spade (even if we bid the suit, he could have JT97 or so and the auction might have been 1D-1S; 2N-3N), since those declarers will probably safety the diamond into the west hand to ensure 11 tricks.

How does that necessarily place us ahead? If clubs split poorly, those people will possibly set up diamonds for 11 tricks where we end up with 9.

Because if clubs behave, you're on a diamond-spade simple squeeze for 12 tricks. If clubs don't behave, and we finesse, as you point out, we make 10 tricks, not 11, so we still can't beat these pairs.

Even discounting the falsecard from ♣JTx, LHO will have ♣JT tight 1/3 of the time he plays the ♣J or ♣T. I don't think the falsecard is as hard for a decent west to find, if he knows your range from the likely 2NT rebid, and he knows from tricks 1 and 2 that hearts are cleared. Playing the ♣A lacking the ♣K makes no sense with solid diamonds and spades, with that hand declarer would try try to strip squeeze the opponents into leading away from the ♣K.

Also, clubs will behave, a priori, roughly 2/3 of the time. The lead doesn't change that, much, since we have 8 cards in both minors, LHO is an ovewhelming favorite to have at least one major with at least 4 cards.

[kenrexford]

Well, I'll buy that -- we are either behind or ahead but not on par.

[gnasher]

kenrexford, on Jun 10 2009, 12:34 AM, said:

If clubs do not cooperate, I end up with 9 top tricks, minus the Ace from trick one, leaving three cards worth of depth. One duck leaves me two tricks off my goal (on the bad split), meaning that the rectification only works if I have someone caught in a progressive spade-diamond-club squeeze. I haven't worked out whether I can handle any pitch from some person so progressively squeezed, but the chances of the long-club person having the long spade and both diamond honors (or the only protected diamond honor) seems remote enough to just play for clubs being 3-2.

Yes, very remote. East would have to be something like 4234, meaning that LHO passed throughout with ♥Q1097532 and then led ♥2.

You would also have to be quite farsighted to play for it. When you duck the heart you can afford a diamond discard from dummy, but West will overtake and clear the hearts If RHO is 4234, you have to throw a club, squeezing him out of a black-suit guard, and you use that suit to squeeze him in the remaining suits.

If, however, East has some more believable distribution like 3532, the club discard simply reduces the 11 tricks you started with to 10. And if you find that there's a spade-diamond squeeze to get you back to 11, everyone else will have made 12 on the same squeeze.