[Little Kid]

Scoring: IMP

1♠-2♥
3♥-4♣
4♦-4NT
5♥-6♣
7♥

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LHO leads the K♦: where do you go from here?

[inquiry]

We will all get the first trick correct, win the ace.

First question, are we going to do anything to protect against a 5-0 club split (we expect East is not void, but west might be). If we decide to play two rounds of trumps then a club to the queen to be sure (hoping if 5-0, the person with no clubs has at most two trumps). That will affect a later line, so I think I will forgo this "protection".

If west has the ♠K there is no need to take the finesse through him, as he can never protect both the ♦Queen and keep ♠Kx, so the showup squeeze would get him. But with two known cards in West hand (♦KQ) to none in EAST hand, I would tend to consider a ruffing finessee through EAST for spade king. But first, I would want to see how hearts split.

If West has 3 or 4 hearts, I would surely play the ruffing finessee (saving club Queen for re-entry after ♠A and ♠Q for the hook. If EAST shows up with 4 or 5 hearts, I would play the show up squeeze (cash all the winners in my hand, coming to two cards, ♦J and ♠6, dummy keeps ♠AQ.

[Echognome]

I generally agree with Ben's analysis, but I should note that there are 6 clubs outstanding, not 5.

[helene_t]

If hearts are 3-2 I think we can ruff a small spade before taking the ruffing finesse, just in case West has Kx.

[Little Kid]

There were 2 other tables that got to 7♥. Both declarers cashed 2 hearts and then played clubs, pitching a diamond in dummy and subsequently ruffing the diamond loser. Any comments on trying to use the clubs as opposed to the spades? Any estimates on the odds?

[wclass___]

If ♥ are 3-2
If play goes ♠A-♠ruff-♥T-♠ruff
(Theoretically you should ruff, because 3-3 is more likely than 4-2)
You win when ♠s are 3-3 or 4-Kx or 5-K(36+16+2)

If you play clubs, you win when they are 3-3 or 4-2 and the one who is short in clubs has 2♥(5422 6322♥ shapes) (but lose when he is 4432 5332 and 63♥22)
Basically this is a bit less than 1/3 from 4-2 breaks. So, 1st ♠ line seems slightl better.

(not all possible lines included and could be mathematical flaws)

[gnasher]

You can combine the chances: draw two trumps, finding them 3-2, ♠A, ♠ ruff. If the king hasn't fallen and LHO hasn't shown out, revert to trying to ruff a diamond in dummy. Without doing any arithmetic, that seems best to me.

[barryallen]

gnasher, on May 31 2009, 05:43 AM, said:

You can combine the chances: draw two trumps, finding them 3-2, ♠A, ♠ ruff.  If the king hasn't fallen and LHO hasn't shown out, revert to trying to ruff a diamond in dummy.  Without doing any arithmetic, that seems best to me.

Diamond ruff seems the way to go, but I would not play the spades. leaving the squeeze in reserve if the 3rd round of clubs gets ruffed by west.

[655321]

barryallen, on May 31 2009, 06:12 AM, said:

gnasher, on May 31 2009, 05:43 AM, said:

You can combine the chances: draw two trumps, finding them 3-2, ♠A, ♠ ruff.  If the king hasn't fallen and LHO hasn't shown out, revert to trying to ruff a diamond in dummy.  Without doing any arithmetic, that seems best to me.

Diamond ruff seems the way to go, but I would not play the spades. leaving the squeeze in reserve if the 3rd round of clubs gets ruffed by west.

Are you playing 2 rounds of trumps first? If so, when you overruff the 3rd club you are stuck in dummy.

By the way, the showup squeeze is basically just the finesse. You do pick up 5-1 spades with singleton King offside, a touch over 1% extra.

[Little Kid]

At the table I played a similar sort of line trying to combine the spade and club chances. I played the ♠A, ♠ruff high, ♥ to dummy. Then ruffed another ♠ and trying the 3-3 club split next if the ♠King didn't drop.

This gives up on 4-1 heart splits while gaining on the 3-3 spade distributions. 28% in exchange for 36%? I'm still not at all sure what the best line is, which is why I posted it here.

[barryallen]

655321, on May 31 2009, 06:46 AM, said:

barryallen, on May 31 2009, 06:12 AM, said:

gnasher, on May 31 2009, 05:43 AM, said:

You can combine the chances: draw two trumps, finding them 3-2, ♠A, ♠ ruff.  If the king hasn't fallen and LHO hasn't shown out, revert to trying to ruff a diamond in dummy.  Without doing any arithmetic, that seems best to me.

Diamond ruff seems the way to go, but I would not play the spades. leaving the squeeze in reserve if the 3rd round of clubs gets ruffed by west.

Are you playing 2 rounds of trumps first? If so, when you overruff the 3rd club you are stuck in dummy.

By the way, the showup squeeze is basically just the finesse. You do pick up 5-1 spades with singleton King offside, a touch over 1% extra.

I changed finesse to squeeze on the basis to pick up that singleton ♠K with west you would not be taking a finesse?

And yes, 1 round of ♥ to 10 then ♣'s