[hrothgar]

inquiry, on May 28 2004, 06:56 PM, said:

Ok, let us leave the world of ZAR/Cavendish where all four hands are shown, and try something different. Imagine this is your south hand..... and you hear....

Playing with a sound, and reasonable partner (2♥ normal weak two) you hear:

Dealer: North Vul: NS Scoring: IMP

♠ AKJ75 ♥ K76 ♦ 973 ♣ Q5

West North East South  -     2♥    Dbl

Over the double, do you

1) Leap to game in ♥
2) Make a redouble
3) Bid 2NT
4) Bid 3♥
5) Pass calmly and wait development
6) Other

I'm bidding 3H and will hit any 4 level contract.

My Spade length combined with the double on my right suggests that partner has short spades and length in the minors. Personally, I'm guess that partner has 1=6=3=3 shape.

We have too many minor suit losers to make 4H. If I could count on a Spade lead, I'd happy bid 4H, however, RHO will be on lead and he is going to prefer to cash his clubs and his Diamonds against 4H. So, bidding 4H is out.

Redouble is questionable. Its unclear whether I can set a 3m contract, and I'd prefer not to try. Most notably, a redouble will warn the opponents that somethings fishy.

A simple raise to 3H places us in a safe contract while concealing my hand strength. Gives the opponents more ways to go wrong.

[tysen2k]

I second hrothgar's reasoning.

[hrothgar]

inquiry, on May 28 2004, 06:56 PM, said:

Ok, let us leave the world of ZAR/Cavendish where all four hands are shown, and try something different. Imagine this is your south hand..... and you hear....

Playing with a sound, and reasonable partner (2♥ normal weak two) you hear:

Dealer: North Vul: NS Scoring: IMP

♠ AKJ75 ♥ K76 ♦ 973 ♣ Q5

West North East South  -     2♥    Dbl

Over the double, do you

1) Leap to game in ♥
2) Make a redouble
3) Bid 2NT
4) Bid 3♥
5) Pass calmly and wait development
6) Other

By the way, Ben

I'm very interested in understanding what the Zar points say about this hand.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Zar points recommend bidding game.

You have sufficient strength to make 4H on bad defense:

6 Heart Tricks +
3 Spade tricks +
Club ruff in dummy

is 10 tricks.

Of course, the opponents are going to take 4 tricks before that can happens, so I think that 4H won't work especially well.

Zar points deal with issues like this by noting that judgement is required.
For example, its assumed that you won't bid slams off two cashing aces.
I think that this situation can be considered to be analogous.
Not sure whether this was the point that you were aiming at though...

[inquiry]

What does ZAR say? Zar says this hand has,

12 hcp, 4 control pts, 1 pt for ♥K, 11 distribtuional pt. Lose a point for Qx. That comes to 12+4+1+11-1 = 27 pts. So if partner is on tip-top of his weak two (25), you can just barely scape togther game values.

So I guess ZAR might issue a game try. But I will surprise you, I evaluated this hand just as you did, and bid 3♥. But it turns out to be a ZAR hand after all, because 4♥ is laydown. The problem was partner doesn't use ZAR points.. here is the hand....

Scoring: IMP

---

As you can see, north has a ZAR monster.

4 control pts, 10 hcp, 15 distributional points, a wonderul 29 ZAR points. Now, one can argue, very nicely, that a first seat vul versus not vul weak two should be "top of weak two bid". But not nearly a king more than an opening hand in value. So, you see, a weak two here cloudys the waters tremendoulsy. A simple 1♥ opening bid when you have such a hand is the road to riches.

Ben

[hrothgar]

Could have sworn that you said something like

>Playing with a sound and reasonable partner (2♥ normal weak two) you hear:

Emphasis on the words "sound and reasonable" :-)

Any number of different evaluation schemes contraindicate a 2♥ opening.

Losing trick count
Rule of 20
BUM-RAP
...

[inquiry]

Richard you missed the point of the excercise. Really, what partner holds is of little consequence. I wanted to know what the right bid was with this hand opposite a weak two. ♥. This particular partner doesn't believe in ZAR and thinks vul first seat his hand is best described by a weak two. I did not know that. Do now. But I think you hit the analysis of what to bid on this hand right on the nose.

Ben

[Zar]

*** hrotgar wrote: "Any number of different evaluation schemes contraindicate a 2♥ opening.

Losing trick count
Rule of 20
BUM-RAP
...

<

You can add "common sense" here easily ...

I guess if you give this hand to 10 experts, 10 of them will open 1H even if they have never heard of Zar Points in their life.

ZAR

[Zar]

Good morning, guys:

This is a short message just to let you know that the Offensive Bidding numbers for Zar Points have been posted to the main Zar Points thread “Zar Points – useful or waste of energy” while the defensive bidding once are in the “Competitive Bidding” thread for Zar Points.

IF you are interested, the corresponding numbers for:

- Goren offensive;
- Goren defensive;
- Milton (HCP) offensive;
- Milton (HCP) defensive;

are also available. They would enable you to “check” the probabilities against the overloading of the bids in your system – you might be surprised by the picture.

Let me know if this wouldn’t be “too much” for the purposes of this forum:

ZAR